2016 if Sanders ran independent

[morgankingsley]

I think Trump would win every state he lost by less than five percent (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia) while Sanders could get about 10 percent of the vote and win Vermont but nothing else. What would you say?

[libertpaulian]

I'd add New Mexico to that mix.  I know he lost by more than 5% there, but Sanders could make enough of a dent there to make the difference, combined with Gary Johnson's votes.

[morgankingsley]

I'd add New Mexico to that mix.  I know he lost by more than 5% there, but Sanders could make enough of a dent there to make the difference, combined with Gary Johnson's votes.

That is a good point. I think Trump would pick that up. I know he lost Oregon by ten percent, but on the event of a landslide, that is a wild maybe.

Trump - 355 electoral votes
Hillary - 180 electoral votes
Sanders - 3 electoral votes.

Would there be any other states that anybody could see being given to Trump on this near landslide

[OBD]

I'd add New Mexico to that mix.  I know he lost by more than 5% there, but Sanders could make enough of a dent there to make the difference, combined with Gary Johnson's votes.

That is a good point. I think Trump would pick that up. I know he lost Oregon by ten percent, but on the event of a landslide, that is a wild maybe.

Trump - 355 electoral votes
Hillary - 180 electoral votes
Sanders - 3 electoral votes.

Would there be any other states that anybody could see being given to Trump on this near landslide

IMO Oregon would probs be very close. If Sanders is drawing 10%, Hillary would be set down enough for Trump to win here.

[morgankingsley]

I would agree there. I think that outside of the states mentioned above and Oregon though, we would probably have the true electoral map. What would the final popular vote be in the end I think would be the next debate of it all? Either way, I think the next four years people will be very angry at Bernie for easily throwing away a easy to win election

[Politician]

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Depending on who Sanders picks as VP, I might add Hawaii to that, especially if he chooses gabbard.

[morgankingsley]

I get Hawaii, but what is the motivation for Washington

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'd add New Mexico to that mix.  I know he lost by more than 5% there, but Sanders could make enough of a dent there to make the difference, combined with Gary Johnson's votes.

That is a good point. I think Drumpf would pick that up. I know he lost Oregon by ten percent, but on the event of a landslide, that is a wild maybe.

Drumpf - 355 electoral votes
Hillary - 180 electoral votes
Sanders - 3 electoral votes.

Would there be any other states that anybody could see being given to Drumpf on this near landslide

This map would probably be it.

[Lechasseur]

I'd add New Mexico to that mix.  I know he lost by more than 5% there, but Sanders could make enough of a dent there to make the difference, combined with Gary Johnson's votes.

That is a good point. I think Drumpf would pick that up. I know he lost Oregon by ten percent, but on the event of a landslide, that is a wild maybe.

Drumpf - 355 electoral votes
Hillary - 180 electoral votes
Sanders - 3 electoral votes.

Would there be any other states that anybody could see being given to Drumpf on this near landslide

This map would probably be it.

[Sirius_]

Before or after the primary? If it was after there may have been some additional vote splitting (though not as drastic as some of these) but if it was before I doubt it would have any affect at all.

[morgankingsley]

Before or after the primary? If it was after there may have been some additional vote splitting (though not as drastic as some of these) but if it was before I doubt it would have any affect at all.

I felt my map was realistic enough

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump would be a huge beneficary of vote-splitting, but Sanders would be in a good position to claim more than just Vermont and Hawaii.

Also, if Sanders goes Indy, Clinton chooses a different running mate, which may or may not help her, depending on who she picks.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 354 Electoral Votes 45% Popular Vote
Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren 66 Electoral Votes 38% Popular Vote
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard 21 Electoral Votes 16% Popular Vote
Tossup States 97 Electoral Votes, representing California, Washington, Colorado, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I think split ticket voting ultimately pulls Trump over the line in New Jersey, Connecticut and Colorado, and I concur that Sanders would win Washington. As for California, that battle would likely last for several days if not weeks in recounts between Clinton and Sanders (I just don't see California Republicans being able to tip the state even with a divided Democratic party), but I think Clinton prevails in recounts.

[morgankingsley]

Trump would be a huge beneficary of vote-splitting, but Sanders would be in a good position to claim more than just Vermont and Hawaii.

Also, if Sanders goes Indy, Clinton chooses a different running mate, which may or may not help her, depending on who she picks.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 354 Electoral Votes 45% Popular Vote
Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren 66 Electoral Votes 38% Popular Vote
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard 21 Electoral Votes 16% Popular Vote
Tossup States 97 Electoral Votes, representing California, Washington, Colorado, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I think split ticket voting ultimately pulls Trump over the line in New Jersey, Connecticut and Colorado, and I concur that Sanders would win Washington. As for California, that battle would likely last for several days if not weeks in recounts between Clinton and Sanders (I just don't see California Republicans being able to tip the state even with a divided Democratic party), but I think Clinton prevails in recounts.

What would be your map of it

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump would be a huge beneficary of vote-splitting, but Sanders would be in a good position to claim more than just Vermont and Hawaii.

Also, if Sanders goes Indy, Clinton chooses a different running mate, which may or may not help her, depending on who she picks.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 354 Electoral Votes 45% Popular Vote
Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren 66 Electoral Votes 38% Popular Vote
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard 21 Electoral Votes 16% Popular Vote
Tossup States 97 Electoral Votes, representing California, Washington, Colorado, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I think split ticket voting ultimately pulls Trump over the line in New Jersey, Connecticut and Colorado, and I concur that Sanders would win Washington. As for California, that battle would likely last for several days if not weeks in recounts between Clinton and Sanders (I just don't see California Republicans being able to tip the state even with a divided Democratic party), but I think Clinton prevails in recounts.

What would be your map of it

I'm having trouble creating maps due to my browser.

[McGovernite]

If Sanders ran for President as an Indie, Trump would win by a bigger amount, due to the amount of vote splitting. If he loses the 2020 primary, and runs as an independent a lot of lean blue states, will go read.

[David T]

Before or after the primary? If it was after there may have been some additional vote splitting (though not as drastic as some of these) but if it was before I doubt it would have any affect at all.

Oh, come on--you don't think he would have won enough votes to deprive HRC of New Hampshire?!  She won the state by 0.37%,  the state is right next to Vermont, Sanders defeated her in the primary 60.14-37.68, etc.

Sanders is after all not just any independent or third party candidate--he was a US senator who had won considerable fame well before the primaries as the only self-described socialist in the Senate.  To assume that he wouldn't get any votes except from, say, Jill Stein supporters seems very implausible to me.

I think he would probably deprive her of MN too, but of NH I have not the slightest doubt.

(Not that there was ever any real chance of his running as an independent, especially once it became clear that Trump would win the GOP nomination.  Sanders was not going to destroy his future with Democrats that way.)

[morgankingsley]

I dont know, there were two to three brief one week or so periods where Trump was in the lead if I remember correctly, namely the conventions. If Trump was always in the lead, by 4+ point margins, Sanders would probably think that he might as well

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanders would not get more than 5%, maximum. However, that's enough to flip Oregon, NH, Maine at-large, Colorado, and Minnesota.

[terp40hitch]

Sanders would not get more than 5%, maximum. However, that's enough to flip Oregon, NH, Maine at-large, Colorado, and Minnesota.

I have to disagree, Sanders would probably have close to 19% like Perot in ‘92 but I could see both VT and HI going his way since how popular Sanders was and how unliked both Clinton and Trump were. I do believe that Sanders would probably end up with 5% if he was not invited to the debates

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanders would not get more than 5%, maximum. However, that's enough to flip Oregon, NH, Maine at-large, Colorado, and Minnesota.

I have to disagree, Sanders would probably have close to 19% like Perot in ‘92 but I could see both VT and HI going his way since how popular Sanders was and how unliked both Clinton and Trump were. I do believe that Sanders would probably end up with 5% if he was not invited to the debates

The fact people still remember Nader today says otherwise.