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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
| | |-+  Would Sanders have done better or worse than Clinton in Virginia in 2016?
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Poll
Question: Would Sanders have done better or worse than Clinton in Virginia in 2016?
Better   -18 (12.5%)
Worse   -98 (68.1%)
No difference   -28 (19.4%)
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Total Voters: 144

Author Topic: Would Sanders have done better or worse than Clinton in Virginia in 2016?  (Read 3930 times)
Liz or Leave
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2018, 10:05:20 am »

Slightly worse but still would have won. People here thinking Trump would have won have this idea that NoVA dems are exclusively country club conservatives who are somehow opposed to economic aspects of "social democracy", as if VA didn't elect a Democrat campaigning on medicare expansion by nine points. Especially against someone as anti-intellectual and anti-institution as Trump. The type of voters you people are envisioning (Republican so repulsed by Trump they voted for Clinton) definitely exists but those people voted reliably for McCain and Romney and Dems still carried the state.

Hotter take: Bernie would have beaten Rubio as well, although that would have been a much closer race.
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Sadader
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« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2018, 04:38:08 am »

Slightly worse but still would have won. People here thinking Trump would have won have this idea that NoVA dems are exclusively country club conservatives who are somehow opposed to economic aspects of "social democracy", as if VA didn't elect a Democrat campaigning on medicare expansion by nine points. Especially against someone as anti-intellectual and anti-institution as Trump. The type of voters you people are envisioning (Republican so repulsed by Trump they voted for Clinton) definitely exists but those people voted reliably for McCain and Romney and Dems still carried the state.

Hotter take: Bernie would have beaten Rubio as well, although that would have been a much closer race.

Hillary probably would have beaten Rubio as well, but just to illustrate how pointless the whole “X would have beaten Y” takes are; “Hillary would have beaten Trump” is an accurate take.
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Roblox
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« Reply #27 on: July 19, 2018, 12:44:55 pm »

Worse, but he would still win it against Trump. Probably by 3 points or so.
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SN2903
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« Reply #28 on: July 21, 2018, 10:05:33 pm »

Trump would have won Virginia against Bernie and would have won the popular vote against him too nationally. Sanders is far too left for the mainstream of America despite what a lot of his followers may think.
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Neoliberalbusters
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« Reply #29 on: January 20, 2019, 08:14:44 pm »

Worse.  Trump would have won it.
lol
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TDAS04
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« Reply #30 on: January 20, 2019, 08:16:54 pm »

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).
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National Progressive
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« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2019, 12:56:45 am »

Trump would have won Virginia against Bernie and would have won the popular vote against him too nationally. Sanders is far too left for the mainstream of America despite what a lot of his followers may think.

lmao
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Big Abraham
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« Reply #32 on: January 21, 2019, 01:03:15 am »

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).
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Never Beto
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« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2019, 04:10:54 am »

Slightly worse, but I don't think that support would have gone to Trump. Sanders would have won 48-44 or 47-44.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2019, 11:08:42 am »

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).

+ Bigger 3rd party support in VA.
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Arturo Belano
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« Reply #35 on: January 22, 2019, 08:58:10 am »

Slightly worse, but I don't think that support would have gone to Trump. Sanders would have won 48-44 or 47-44.

This. Turnout would've been slightly depressed and there would have been a slight boost potentially for the Libertarians. But I'm skeptical at the idea that a Sanders nomination would have allowed Trump to close a five point gap and at the idea that Virginian Democrats are a white suburban mom monolith that would rather vote for Trump over social democracy.
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #36 on: January 22, 2019, 10:38:01 am »

He'd do slightly worse, but still win comfortably.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #37 on: January 22, 2019, 06:15:04 pm »

The extent to which candidates being a "fit" for the electorate of a state affects the outcome is MASSIVELY overrated on here. 

Candidate quality matters way more, and Hillary was objectively a worse candidate overall than Sanders in 2016 in terms of electability.

If we assume Hillary doesn't pick Kaine, I'm not even sure she does better than Sanders in Virginia, despite "fit."
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MB
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« Reply #38 on: January 22, 2019, 09:35:07 pm »

Worse, but only by a couple points and he still would've won.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #39 on: January 23, 2019, 01:13:27 am »

Worse in Virginia by about 2 points, about 1 point better nationally though. Enough to give him a scarilingly narrow electoral vote victory
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Wazza
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« Reply #40 on: January 27, 2019, 06:12:32 pm »

Worse, probably not bad enough to lose the state though.
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elephantower
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« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2019, 04:28:53 pm »

It's obviously very unclear how the campaign would have played out, or what image VA swing voters would have of Bernie after a general election campaign. I suspect Trump would have leaned into "smart patriotic businessman vs crazy socialist" rather than "tough outsider vs corrupt establishment shill" -- this would probably pay off in e.g. the Atlanta suburbs but wouldn't be enough to flip Obama voters in VA.

(just making this post to be able to reply to a PM)
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OneJ
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« Reply #42 on: February 06, 2019, 09:59:54 am »

The margin may get a little tighter, but I would expect Bernie to crack 50 in Virginia unlike Hillary. It hardly matters because Bernie would've won Virginia against Trump anyway.
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History505
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« Reply #43 on: February 06, 2019, 11:09:25 am »

Worse.
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penttilinkolafan
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« Reply #44 on: February 06, 2019, 01:00:02 pm »

Sanders would have done worse than Clinton given his economic views. VA would become a tossup in this scenario.
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Left-Libertarian
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« Reply #45 on: February 06, 2019, 03:09:09 pm »

Sanders would have done worse than Clinton given his economic views. VA would become a tossup in this scenario.

He would've done maginally worse if only his economic views were taken into account, but he still would have won Virginia. Voters don't care (or don't understand) policy positions.

I think Sanders would've lost, and done a lot worse than Hillsary given all the opposition research on him. He's a dirty candidate.
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penttilinkolafan
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« Reply #46 on: February 06, 2019, 03:29:29 pm »

Sanders would be the kind of candidate the GOP's outdated "BUT HE'S SOCIALIST" whining would actually work against. My guess is even with the dead/illegal vote factored in, trump wins PV against sanders.
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MarkD
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« Reply #47 on: February 06, 2019, 06:01:23 pm »

Worse, probably not bad enough to lose the state though.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2019, 03:12:50 am »

Maybe Virginia would have been closer to the NPV but since Sanders was a more electable candidate than Clinton in every way he would have performed several points better.
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Averroës
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« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2019, 08:12:26 am »

I think there's a strong chance that Sanders would have performed substantially worse in certain states not because he describes himself as a "democratic socialist," but because he is Jewish. Virginia is one of them.
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