Would Sanders have done better or worse than Clinton in Virginia in 2016?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Slightly worse but still would have won. People here thinking Trump would have won have this idea that NoVA dems are exclusively country club conservatives who are somehow opposed to economic aspects of "social democracy", as if VA didn't elect a Democrat campaigning on medicare expansion by nine points. Especially against someone as anti-intellectual and anti-institution as Trump. The type of voters you people are envisioning (Republican so repulsed by Trump they voted for Clinton) definitely exists but those people voted reliably for McCain and Romney and Dems still carried the state.

Hotter take: Bernie would have beaten Rubio as well, although that would have been a much closer race.

[Sadader]

Slightly worse but still would have won. People here thinking Trump would have won have this idea that NoVA dems are exclusively country club conservatives who are somehow opposed to economic aspects of "social democracy", as if VA didn't elect a Democrat campaigning on medicare expansion by nine points. Especially against someone as anti-intellectual and anti-institution as Trump. The type of voters you people are envisioning (Republican so repulsed by Trump they voted for Clinton) definitely exists but those people voted reliably for McCain and Romney and Dems still carried the state.

Hotter take: Bernie would have beaten Rubio as well, although that would have been a much closer race.

Hillary probably would have beaten Rubio as well, but just to illustrate how pointless the whole “X would have beaten Y” takes are; “Hillary would have beaten Trump” is an accurate take.

[Roblox]

Worse, but he would still win it against Trump. Probably by 3 points or so.

[SN2903]

Trump would have won Virginia against Bernie and would have won the popular vote against him too nationally. Sanders is far too left for the mainstream of America despite what a lot of his followers may think.

[Politician]

Worse.  Trump would have won it.

lol

[TDAS04]

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).

[H. Ross Peron]

Trump would have won Virginia against Bernie and would have won the popular vote against him too nationally. Sanders is far too left for the mainstream of America despite what a lot of his followers may think.

lmao

[Big Abraham]

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Slightly worse, but I don't think that support would have gone to Trump. Sanders would have won 48-44 or 47-44.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Worse.  Sanders would have done better in West Virginia (not that it would have made the difference in either state).

+ Bigger 3rd party support in VA.

[Arturo Belano]

Slightly worse, but I don't think that support would have gone to Trump. Sanders would have won 48-44 or 47-44.

This. Turnout would've been slightly depressed and there would have been a slight boost potentially for the Libertarians. But I'm skeptical at the idea that a Sanders nomination would have allowed Trump to close a five point gap and at the idea that Virginian Democrats are a white suburban mom monolith that would rather vote for Trump over social democracy.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

He'd do slightly worse, but still win comfortably.

[RaphaelDLG]

The extent to which candidates being a "fit" for the electorate of a state affects the outcome is MASSIVELY overrated on here. 

Candidate quality matters way more, and Hillary was objectively a worse candidate overall than Sanders in 2016 in terms of electability.

If we assume Hillary doesn't pick Kaine, I'm not even sure she does better than Sanders in Virginia, despite "fit."

[Dr. MB]

Worse, but only by a couple points and he still would've won.

[morgankingsley]

Worse in Virginia by about 2 points, about 1 point better nationally though. Enough to give him a scarilingly narrow electoral vote victory

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Worse, probably not bad enough to lose the state though.

[elephantower]

It's obviously very unclear how the campaign would have played out, or what image VA swing voters would have of Bernie after a general election campaign. I suspect Trump would have leaned into "smart patriotic businessman vs crazy socialist" rather than "tough outsider vs corrupt establishment shill" -- this would probably pay off in e.g. the Atlanta suburbs but wouldn't be enough to flip Obama voters in VA.

(just making this post to be able to reply to a PM)

[OneJ]

The margin may get a little tighter, but I would expect Bernie to crack 50 in Virginia unlike Hillary. It hardly matters because Bernie would've won Virginia against Trump anyway.

[History505]

Worse.

[CEO Mindset]

Sanders would have done worse than Clinton given his economic views. VA would become a tossup in this scenario.

[Xeuma]

Sanders would have done worse than Clinton given his economic views. VA would become a tossup in this scenario.

He would've done maginally worse if only his economic views were taken into account, but he still would have won Virginia. Voters don't care (or don't understand) policy positions.

I think Sanders would've lost, and done a lot worse than Hillsary given all the opposition research on him. He's a dirty candidate.

[CEO Mindset]

Sanders would be the kind of candidate the GOP's outdated "BUT HE'S SOCIALIST" whining would actually work against. My guess is even with the dead/illegal vote factored in, trump wins PV against sanders.

[MarkD]

Worse, probably not bad enough to lose the state though.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Maybe Virginia would have been closer to the NPV but since Sanders was a more electable candidate than Clinton in every way he would have performed several points better.

[Averroës Nix]

I think there's a strong chance that Sanders would have performed substantially worse in certain states not because he describes himself as a "democratic socialist," but because he is Jewish. Virginia is one of them.