McCain Wins!

[Orwell]

Capital Hill Beat!

Hawkeye Pierce III

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here is a recap of the last few months since election day:


CNN.com
November 5th 2008

ftp://

Obama falls short in crucial swing states with low Hispanic and youth vote turnout and a surprisingly large margin for President Elect McCain with the Cuban vote which is what carried him to a close victory in the crucial state of Florida. However in other news thing's are not looking good for Senate Republicans as they lost 8 seats including the seat of Kentucky Republican and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

In the house of Representatives the Democrats will gain 14 seats letting them keep their majority in the US House with a majority of 250 to 185, onto the Governorships where the Democrats will pickup the Missouri Mansion while the Republicans made no gains as both Democrats and Republicans were reelected.
 



How did President McCain win the election in 2008? After the Stockmarket meltdown most Pundits (including us believed McCain to be dead of arrival) however after tapes were released 2 weeks prior to the election of Senator Obama praising communist poet Frank Marshall Davis the race suddenly became real again and after Vice President Ridge outperformed Senator Biden in the Vice Presidential debate and President McCain gave Obama a crushing blow in the third and final debate the race was neck and neck and it did end up coming down to the crucial swing state of Florida and it's 27 electoral votes.



After confirming McCain was the winner of the 2008 election Senator Obama conceded to McCain with a brief phone call, and President Bush congratulated McCain the next morning. When the final results were tallied in the states of Florida and Ohio McCain won them  by about 40,000 votes and 55,000 votes respectably. President McCain in his victory speech said that his candidacy was about uniting a nation and he quoted President Lincoln by saying a House divided cannot stand, but when the dust is all settled we won't know if McCain's Presidency will play out like he and the American people hope, he will face many difficult challenges with a lagging economy and large democratic majorities in Congress we should look forward to next week when we cover President McCains picks for the Cabinet,  

[UWS]

This is good but I think you forgot something in the swear-in sentences. Usually, it should be written « I John Sidney McCain do solemnly swear… » instead of just « I do solemnly swear… ». But you're doing a good job.

[Orwell]

Lol I made it late last night I messed upthere and on the Senate map

[David T]

I think scenarios like this underrate the importance of fundamentals.  With the economy in free fall, I don't think very many people would care about Obama praising a Communist poet.  Vice presidential candidates have very limited impact--most people agreed that Bentsen got the better of Quayle in their debate, but it changed very few votes.  ("Only 5 percent of those who voted for Dukakis gave Quayle as an explanation."   http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/hey_wait_a_minute/2000/06/nobody_votes_for_the_veep.html) And the effects of presidential debates are also questionable.  (The JFK-Nixon race was close before the debates and close afterwards.)  And in any event Obama was an experienced debater and hardly likely to collapse.  (Moreover, after 1984, the final debate was set far enough from Election Day so that the effects of a poor final debate would have time to fade.)

I'm not saying that McCain can't win.  But I am saying that for him to win, you have to prevent the financial meltdown of September 2008.  Without that I certainly can't see him carrying states like Colorado (+8.95% Obama in OTL), NH (Obama +9.61%) or even VA  (Obama +6.30%) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

[nerd73]

The only thing that could have flipped 2008 with the economic crash still happening would be Obama having a Roy Moore level scandal.

[Orwell]

I just couldn't think of any ideas that would make it so that McCain can battle back so I basically had all of these things in a x2 modifier.

[Peanut]

While basically impossible in the historical conditions, a McCain Presidency is a really interesting scenario.

[uti2]

I think scenarios like this underrate the importance of fundamentals.  With the economy in free fall, I don't think very many people would care about Obama praising a Communist poet.  Vice presidential candidates have very limited impact--most people agreed that Bentsen got the better of Quayle in their debate, but it changed very few votes.  ("Only 5 percent of those who voted for Dukakis gave Quayle as an explanation."   http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/hey_wait_a_minute/2000/06/nobody_votes_for_the_veep.html) And the effects of presidential debates are also questionable.  (The JFK-Nixon race was close before the debates and close afterwards.)  And in any event Obama was an experienced debater and hardly likely to collapse.  (Moreover, after 1984, the final debate was set far enough from Election Day so that the effects of a poor final debate would have time to fade.)

I'm not saying that McCain can't win.  But I am saying that for him to win, you have to prevent the financial meltdown of September 2008.  Without that I certainly can't see him carrying states like Colorado (+8.95% Obama in OTL), NH (Obama +9.61%) or even VA  (Obama +6.30%) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

While basically impossible in the historical conditions, a McCain Presidency is a really interesting scenario.

Mccain's '08 odds were far better than Romney's prior to the economic collapse. Mccain actually led Obama in the EC, Hillary's people bragged about Obama doing worse in the EC.

Just edit the timeline to include Bush/Paulson authorizing Bernanke to bail Lehman out instead of ordering him to stand down with regards to the initial bailout.

[Orwell]

McCain winning is bloody nuts TBF, but Im planning for his presidency to basically collapse... Well you'll see.