Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a possibility that M5S could just form a new Government with PD to avoid Snap elections and punish Salvini?

Theoretically? Yes. Realistically, Renzi still holds a ton of sway over the party and the "Never team up will M5S" is still very prevalent, especially when you are the weaker partner. Zingaretti would likely not even back a technocratic government considering how toxic such a temporary thing would be. Oh, and there's the desire to punish M5S and get better numbers for PD on the left, a very powerful motive in the personality driven politics of Italy.

I think every non-M5S has a reason to support a new election now. PD+the minors can be seen above, Lega for the obvious reasons, FdI to enter government, and Forza to get the election ASAP, because the longer the legislature gets dragged out, the more Forza is going to keep sliding in the polls as their partisans move to Lega.

[mileslunn]

As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed. 

The present Premier of Ontario is Doug Ford.

Ford is pretty loathed today and won more due to Liberals being in power too long.  By contrast Salvini has almost doubled his support in a year and he is pretty far right for a Western European leader.  In Eastern Europe different story, but in Western Europe, while many like him, they usually have a tough time cracking the 30% mark.

[mileslunn]

So in essence it is immigration why Salvini is so popular and other issues like flat tax and looser gun laws are side issues that people care less about?  I do know Italy doesn't have the same history with immigration as many other Western European countries do who have had large immigrant populations in their major cities for decades, its more a recent phenemenon unlike say UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

That being said is their any chance he would take Italy out of the Euro or call a referendum to leave the EU.  I would think after how poorly Brexit is going and with Italy even being more integrated (part of Scheghen and Euro unlike UK), leaving the EU would not have majority support.  Another side issue while largely symbolism, I noticed last time I visited Italy, almost every government building would fly the Italian and EU flags so being a strong nationalist does he still have EU flag in background when speaking like Macron and Merkel do, or like Orban does he only have national flag in background considering his general disdain of the EU.

[Oryxslayer]

So in essence it is immigration why Salvini is so popular and other issues like flat tax and looser gun laws are side issues that people care less about?  I do know Italy doesn't have the same history with immigration as many other Western European countries do who have had large immigrant populations in their major cities for decades, its more a recent phenemenon unlike say UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

That being said is their any chance he would take Italy out of the Euro or call a referendum to leave the EU.  I would think after how poorly Brexit is going and with Italy even being more integrated (part of Scheghen and Euro unlike UK), leaving the EU would not have majority support.  Another side issue while largely symbolism, I noticed last time I visited Italy, almost every government building would fly the Italian and EU flags so being a strong nationalist does he still have EU flag in background when speaking like Macron and Merkel do, or like Orban does he only have national flag in background considering his general disdain of the EU.

Most anti-EU skeptics have retreated from outright leave philosophies to erstwhile loathing and skepticism - in part because Brexit is showing just how damaging that philosophy is, in part because the EU is now increasingly popular and Salvini wouldn't dare die on that hill - why today a poll showed 75-25 support Italian EU membership. There is also of course the faction within the EU led by Le Pen and co. who want to reform the EU to suit their needs, rather then that of the "liberal elite."

But migration isn't Salvini's only issue, even though it is the big one. The north/south divide, while less prominent now in Lega still influences its goals. The coalition after all broke apart over northern infrastructure investment supported by Lega and the right who rule the north in contrast to M5S's south. There's the anti-government, anti-corruption angle, which seems awkward after the Russian collusion thing. However, almost every Italian government since the 90s has came to power promising to do away with the insider corruption of the last one, its part of Belusconi's brand. With M5S failing on most of their key proposals, Lega can run on throwing the ineffective wing of the government. There's the youth unemployment and debt issues, which birthed M5S and now have been swiped by Lega into the Anti-Migrant umbrella. There's the aging problem and how Italy has one of the lowest Birth rates in the world, which natural breeds aging, healthcare, and other types of issues that are 'constantly in need of reform' or at least funding. Like any party, it can't be blamed on one media headline, as dominant as that headline is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.

[Senator Incitatus]

As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.

I've openly asked this before: how powerful would Salvini be if he (or Lega) could create any appeal in the South? His numbers remain depressed because of the regional issue.

But yes, even I have such strong distaste for their record that it prevents me from actively rooting for them, and I sense from conversations with native Sicilians that this is the common sentiment on the island.

[Oryxslayer]

As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.

I've openly asked this before: how powerful would Salvini be if he (or Lega) could create any appeal in the South? His numbers remain depressed because of the regional issue.

But yes, even I have such strong distaste for their record that it prevents me from actively rooting for them, and I sense from conversations with native Sicilians that this is the common sentiment on the island.

Theres certainly going to be some of a regional divide, almost certainly in policy, but I'm not sure how bad it will be vote wise. Local elections have shown Lega picking up steam in the south, Salvini is campaigning in the south, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Lega was able to rise so fast and pull so many voters from M5S because they were finally able to expand beyond the north.

[DavidB.]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

[jaichind]

As the party that pushes the country into a mid-term election I suspect Lega will under-perform polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Some scenario polling for the right wing list potentials. The top one is what has been currently run locally, the second Lega on its own, and the third being Lega and their buddys in the FdI. I shudder to think what might happen if Lega gets a majority on its own.

[TheSaint250]

Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

[Walmart_shopper]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

[Walmart_shopper]

Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

This is a good question. As Five Star voters have fled their party, both PD and Lega have fairly equally benefited. Whether Lega gets a majority or not probably depends on how successfully they focus the campaign on immigration and general populism, which attracts Five Star voters. If PD can reorient the narrative around economic issues that will attract those same voters to PD.

[Famous Mortimer]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

[Oryxslayer]

Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

This is a good question. As Five Star voters have fled their party, both PD and Lega have fairly equally benefited. Whether Lega gets a majority or not probably depends on how successfully they focus the campaign on immigration and general populism, which attracts Five Star voters. If PD can reorient the narrative around economic issues that will attract those same voters to PD.

Polling back in 2018 found a peculiar thing: M5S was kinda a catch-all party ideologically. When polling voters on where they would place themselves on a spectrum, Lega, Forza and other right -wingers's ideological bell curves were or course right tilts, and PD's was of course left tilted. M5S though was close to flat, with a small hump for the left. What this means is that voters came to M5S from all parts of the spectrum - they were a protest party, not a ideological one.

If the same question were to be asked now, I suspect M5S would bee very left-leaning. Lega's surge pulled from those voters on the right, in part because they now have likely cracked the south which was previously a no-go zone, and PD's partial recovery comes at the expense of thee furthest part of M5S's left wing. Those left remain committed to M5S's welfare legacy, or are unreachable with offers from the others at present.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

[Famous Mortimer]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That is what the cadre of the League etc believe and a substantial portion of the Italian population, but it clearly isn't what the majority of the Italian electorate thinks or else there would literally never be anything aside from League majorities.  You've been blinded by your own myopic obsessions, I'm afraid.

To put it another way, there is a substantial amount of voters in many many northern European countries who are completely inflamed by climate change, think it's by far the most (or only) important issue, but these people are not median voters.

[Walmart_shopper]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.

If the Italian economy weren't operating like an arthritic, septic old woman then maybe the demography of Italy would't be so close to the arthritic old woman who needs young immigrants to keep her alive.

In fact, the dysfunction of Italian politics and economics are why immigrants are necessary and also why they are met with such hostility. People view them as a burden, but Italians themselves are a much greater burden and obviously caused this mess in the first place. With a normal economy and politics immigrants would also be necessary, but they would be recognized as an integral piece of a flourishing economy.

If Italians believe that their culture is worth safeguarding, they should actually make sure that their culture is worth preserving. An economy that keeps Mario at home with Mama and the Playstation until he is a. 40 or b. moving to the UK is not the sign of a culture worth preserving. The whole world loves the nostalgia of Nona's Italy, but precisely because of the economy that Italy is dead, and the only migrants contributing to that reality aren't Africans but Italians themselves fleeing their own dumpster fire.

[rob in cal]

  It would be intresting to know what would have happened had the Gentiloni government had a longer term in office and more time for Interior minister Minnitti to claim credit for the migration clampdown that he instituted (and that Salvini has praised IIRC).  Then the PD, or at least some elements of it, could have part ownership of the question of better immigration law enforcement.

[Oryxslayer]

Its kinda a chicken and egg problem that's gotten way out of hand. Italy has a lot of structural problems that can't be solved with one government snapping their fingers, so people leave to the rest of the EU and the Americas in search of prosperity or lack the financial stability to have kids, which leads to more structural problems, which leads to more out-migration and lower births...

[Famous Mortimer]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.

If the Italian economy weren't operating like an arthritic, septic old woman then maybe the demography of Italy would't be so close to the arthritic old woman who needs young immigrants to keep her alive.

In fact, the dysfunction of Italian politics and economics are why immigrants are necessary and also why they are met with such hostility. People view them as a burden, but Italians themselves are a much greater burden and obviously caused this mess in the first place. With a normal economy and politics immigrants would also be necessary, but they would be recognized as an integral piece of a flourishing economy.

If Italians believe that their culture is worth safeguarding, they should actually make sure that their culture is worth preserving. An economy that keeps Mario at home with Mama and the Playstation until he is a. 40 or b. moving to the UK is not the sign of a culture worth preserving. The whole world loves the nostalgia of Nona's Italy, but precisely because of the economy that Italy is dead, and the only migrants contributing to that reality aren't Africans but Italians themselves fleeing their own dumpster fire.

You say the current population of Italy is burdensome. So you are are admitting that large groups of people can be generally burdensome. If I said this, I would be called a Nazi. Regardless though, you are correct.

If you can acknowledge that the population of Italy is generally burdensome, why do you assume that a population imported from Africa will be automatically productive? It's a very strange assumption given that every African economy is worse than the Italian economy.

If the burdensome stupid lazy white people in Italy need migrants, they need productive migrants who will make their population more productive, they do not need burdensome migrants who will only make their problems worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jesus F**king Christ what has this thread become

I'll say it: I wish all American posters could be preemptively banned from this board and only let back in if they have a proven record of not talking out of their asses about countries they know nothing about.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently there are now some talks between M5S and PD to ally and avoid salvini as premier.
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/renzi-di-maio-proposta-indecente_it_5d4dba7be4b0fc06ace782eb

Other than sneering Florentine liberals who cannot fathom joining up with the rabble, who would actually oppose this among PD and Five Star voters? And how does this hurt eitger, politically?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently there are now some talks between M5S and PD to ally and avoid salvini as premier.
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/renzi-di-maio-proposta-indecente_it_5d4dba7be4b0fc06ace782eb

Other than sneering Florentine liberals who cannot fathom joining up with the rabble, who would actually oppose this among PD and Five Star voters? And how does this hurt eitger, politically?

Actually, this article is saying that Renzi is the one suggesting a deal. And Zingaretti is publicly opposed to it.

Still, it's just rumors. I won't take any of these ideas seriously until someone brings them up openly.