Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.

[SPQR]

It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.

Well, any of the first 3 offers that you get. But for the rest I agree, it's nothing new.


Update on the polls average:
Lega: 32,8%
Movimento 5 Stelle: 22,2%
Partito Democratico: 20,6%
Forza Italia: 9,4%
Fratelli d'Italia (Right-wing Eurosceptic): 4,9%
+Europa (Liberal Pro-Europe): 3,2%
La Sinistra (Left): 3%
Verdi (Greens): 1,4%

PD's rise following the victory of Zingaretti in the primaries in March has now come to a halt, as M5S somehow manages to slowly rise, while Forza Italia is collapsing even though Berlusconi is running for the European Elections.
La Sinistra, the new leftist bloc which replaces MDP (part of which went into PD following Zingaretti's win), polls decently.


Together with the European Elections, in one month there will also be regional elections in Piemonte (incumbent: PD) and a number of important cities, amongst which Florence and Bari (both incumbents: PD).
Tomorrow there will be the first round of voting in a few Sicilian municipalities (since they are a Special Statute Regions they choose their own date), but only Caltanissetta is worth watching, and even that is a pretty small town.
It will be interesting to see whether in the second round (Italian law for municipal elections has a second round between the top two if nobody gets to 50%) M5S voters will support the center-right, and viceversa, as has been the case in the past. The daily fight between Salvini and Di Maio may lead to some surprises.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.

I know right?? A government that actually tried to implement an even modest UBI with no strings attached would actually have deserved real praise for trying something new in social policy. But obviously that was never going to happen in a government controlled by Salvini...

[Andrea]

II round of local elections in Sicily held yesterday.

M5S take Caltanisetta comfortably (58.85%). In first round the FI-UDC candidate was leading 37 to 20%.
5 Stars also win in Castelvetrano (64.47%) starting from  behind after first round.

In Gela, the candidate supported by local lists endorsed by PD and Forza Italia is elected over the candidate supported by FdI, UDC and Lega. 52.45 to 47.55%. In the first round the winner was already leading 36 to 30%.

In Mazara del Vallo the candidate supported by local lists endorsed by centre-left have beaten the Lega candidate. 52.41 to 47.59%. In first round it was 31 to 24% for local centre-left candidate.

In Monreale the candidate supported by local lists and Musumeci easily beats the rival supported by centre-left local lists. 55.73 to 44.27%. In first round it was closer (23.9 to 21.2).

[SPQR]

Lega got more than the latest polls from 2 weeks ago, and about as much as the polls from a couple months ago.
M5S fell below what was considered as Di Maio's "survival threshold". They are in lots of trouble, they also suffered from the low turnout in the South.
PD are now the second party so it's a victory, still lots of work to do in the Southern regions. Also, the result in Umbria is horrible (half the votes of Lega in a former leftwing stronghold).
Fratelli d'Italia also appear to have a very strong result, they managed to survive and thrive regardless of Lega's great growth.
La Sinistra below Europa Verde is just LOL.

[Senator Incitatus]

I have very mixed thoughts on his agenda, but it's clear to me that Salvini is one of the most talented campaigners in the world right now. Among the great nations, put him in a class with Modi and maybe no others.

He is adept at turning great popularity into great power. This, of course, can be dangerous. Hoping for the best.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega thankfully finished just below the PCI's high point in 1976 (34.33% vs 34.37%). Still absolutely, bone-chillingly, existentially terrifying result.

We can only hope that this will be like PD in 2014. This is the high point, and now it's all downhill.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

[Umengus]

Lega thankfully finished just below the PCI's high point in 1976 (34.33% vs 34.37%). Still absolutely, bone-chillingly, existentially terrifying result.

We can only hope that this will be like PD in 2014. This is the high point, and now it's all downhill.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

good one. This election is amazing for the right. Vox populi, vox dei.

[Andrea]

Looking at MEPs elected (based on preferences)

PD

North West: Pisapia (Milan former mayor) leads as expected with 266,000 votes. Tinagli did well (just over 100,000). Then Majorino (cabinet member in Milan where PD performed well) and incumbent Toia (also from Lombardia). Final seat goes to incumbent Brando Benifei (from Liguria).
Incumbents Bresso and Viotti lose their seats. For Viotti it was more or less expected given PD reduction in seats, Bresso less so as she was among the "heads of the list". This means no candidates from Piemonte is elected in PD list which is surprising as Piemonte is bigger than Liguria.  Maybe the choices of top candidates (Bresso and Morando) for Piemonte wasn't good. Long running political careers but not as dynamic anymore.

North East: Calenda gets 275,000 preferences. Newcomers Elisabetta Gualimini (vice president of  Emilia Romagna region) is second. Incumbent De Castro and former MP and MEP Moretti (Veneto) take the other 2 seats.
2 incumbents lost here (De Monte and Kyenge). Laura Puppato doesn't get in either (6th, around 4,000 votes below Moretti).

Central....this constituency is behind in the update. 2,500 polling stations not added, almost all in Rome. But Bonafè and Sassoli are re-elected. Bartolo is third. Currently MEP Nicola Danti is in 4th but Rome will be a big boost for Smeriglio and Gualtieri (incumbent) who will both pass him and fight for the last seat. Bartolo is elected also in the Islands, so he will have to choose where to pick the seat.

South: Franco Roberti leads with 148,000 votes. Then Ferrandino, Cozzolino and Picierno who edges Gentile by some hundreds. It is basically only Campania.

Islands: Pietro Bartolo and Caterina Chinnici over 100,000. Andrea Soddu (from Sardinia) is the third in case Bartolo opts for Central constituency.


Forza Italia

In NW...Berlusconi and Salini (incumbent). Laura Comi is third and her destiny depends on where Silvio will take the seat

NE..apparently no seats for FI. So Pivetti doesn't get in

Centre...Tajani for sure. De Meo is currently second but Rome is missing and Mussolini can make up some ground there but 10,000 is too much IMO.

South: Berlusconi followed by incumbent Patriciello and Martusciello.

Islands: Giuseppe Milazzo is second to Berlusconi.


5 stars

NW...top of the list Danzì doesn't make it. Incumbents Evi and Beghin are re-elected

NE..incumbent Zullo tops the poll followed by Pignedoli. Both elected

Central...incumbent Castoldo along Daniela Rondinelli should be the 2 elected. Livorno's outgoing mayor Nogarin ends third. Agea  and Tamburrano are 4-5th and lose their seats.

South..here they should take 6 seats. So Adinfoli, D'Amato, Ferrara, Piedicini are re-elected.  Chiara Gemma come first and Mario Furore takes the last seat.

Islands..Giarrusso closely followed by incumebent Corrao are elected.


Fratelli d'Italia

well, Meloni everywhere. Fitto is second in South and I suppose he will take the seat there when Meloni opts for Central (or somewhere else) (edit: well, Meloni will remain in Rome...stupid me)
Elisabetta Gardini is third in NE. So out regardless of Meloni's choices. So now she can defect to something even more on the right

[Oryxslayer]

Lega has successfully made themselves the preferred option for a good number of M5S voters. One has to imagine that calling early elections and forming a pure right government is in the back of Salvini's mind right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In local elections, Lega has taken Piedmont, defeating the PD incumbent and giving it a full sweep of the big three Northern regions. The right looks set to make gains at the mayoral level too, but the left is holding up decently given the circumstances. M5S is imploding - its incumbent in Livorno didn't even make it to the runoff.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

How is the electorate of the European elections compared to one of the general elections?

Are those who vote in European elections are more educated/urban etc?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening here to a country in which "national conservatives " and outright fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

[Lord Halifax]

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening to a country in which "national conservatives " and unapologetic fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

What does that mean?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross.

small side-note: Jobbik were badly obliterated this election.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening to a country in which "national conservatives " and unapologetic fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

What does that mean?

A CoDbro (from Call of Duty and bro) is the word I use for the sort of person who spends his (or her, but usually his) leisure time calling Twitch streamers racial slurs. I have no idea if this is the sort of thing Salvini actually does with his time but it's more an aesthetic and a state of mind than an actual interest in video games specifically.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross.

small side-note: Jobbik were badly obliterated this election.

Thank God for small blessings.

[rob in cal]

  I thought that Jobbik had made a big ideological u-turn in the last few years?  Anyway, is it correct that Lega won Perugia? If so, what is going on in Umbria, I thought that was kind of a junior Tuscany politically?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening here to a country in which "national conservatives " and outright fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

I mean, fair, that was a bit hyperbolic in terms of the exact proportions. However, you're forgetting that Lega is not the only party that's trying to copy the Fidesz model. FdI has basically the exact same positions and they polled 6%. And I have no doubt that Berlusconi would be happy to go along with such a political project as long as his, er, "interests" are protected. That brings the total vote for a likely radical right coalition to almost 50%. And if M5S keeps imploding, at least a few of its voters will flock to that banner.

I guess that's still not quite Hungary levels of reactionary dominance, but it's about where Poland is right now.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I guess that's still not quite Hungary levels of reactionary dominance, but it's about where Poland is right now.

And I'd much much rather live in Poland than in Hungary.

I'm not trying to dismiss your fears here; I share them, for the most part, possibly even more so since I'm also personally worried about elements of the Catholic Church possibly falling in step with this zeitgeist in Italy. But you and I both know how resilient Italian culture-as-such is ("upstream from politics", as the reactionaries would say). One of the worst lasting legacies of the Eastern Bloc is the fact that society in countries like Poland and Hungary doesn't have that resilience.

ETA: Also, if we're going to discuss with maps, I'd be remiss not to mention that, Umbria's sprint away from its traditions notwithstanding, the center-left is shaping up to have a much firmer "geographic floor" in ER and Tuscany, so to speak, than the Hungarian left/liberals have. MSZP won a total of one constituency outside Budapest last year. That's no small matter for people who live in the relevant parts of these countries and experience mostly their local cultures.

[Oryxslayer]

What exactly is Berlusconi aiming for in the next few years?

Well he's currently going to sit in the EU Parliament, which may be his 'retirement home' unless Lega falls apart or he successfully shuffles his positions to copy Salvini, and the voters accept such a shift.

Bringing up Berlusconi though is important to the discussion of how much Legas rise is do to their own success. In some way Salvini is merely the new master of Berlusconi's machine. One can't forget the man used anti-elite, anti-corruption, and anti-government populism before it was the hip new thing to become the default PM of Italy. There was always at least 40% of the vote waiting for him, usually more until M5S supplanted his movement. In this regard then, the current position of Salvini and Co is merely a return to the established system that began in the 90s, expect anti-migrant populism is also attached to Berlusconi's old political machine.

[Andrea]

Mayoral elections in main cities

Firenze: Nardella (CL) 57%
Bari: De Caro (CL) 66.3%
Bergamo: Gori (CL) 55.3%
Lecce: Salvemini (CL) 50.9%
Modena: Muzzarelli (CL) 53.4%
Pesaro: Ricci (CL) 57.3%

Perugia: Romizi (CR) 59.8%
Pavia: Fracassi (CR) 53%
Pescara:  Masci (CR) 51.3%
Urbino: Gambini (CR) 55.1%
Vibo Valentia: Limbardo (CR) 59.5%



Run offs

Potenza: Guarnte (CR) 44.7% Tramutoli (local lists) 27.4%
Campobasso: D'Alessandro (CR) 39.7% Gravina (5 Stars) 29.4%
Ascoli: Fioravanti (CR) 37.4% Celani (local lists) 21.4%
Avellino: Cipriano (CL) 32.4% Festa (local lists) 28.7%
Cremona: Galimberti (CL) 46.4% Malvezzi (CR) 41.7%
Cesena: Lattuca (CL) 42,8% Rossi (CR) 33.8%
Ferrara: Fabbri (CR) 48.4% Modesini (CL) 31.8%
Foggia: Landella (CR) 46.1% Cavaliere (CL) 33.7%
Forlì: Zattini (CR) 45.8% Calderoni (CL) 37.2%
Livorno: Salvetti (CL) 34.2% Romiti (CR) 26.6%
Prato: Biffoni (CL) 47.2% Spada (CR) 35.1%
Reggio Emilia: Vecchi (CL) 49.1% Salati (CR) 28.2%
Rovigo: Gambarella (CR) 38.2% Gaffeo (Cl) 25.4%
Verbania: Albertella (CR) 45.8% Marchionini (CL) 37.5%
Vercelli: Corsaro (CR) 41.9% Forte (CL) 24.7%

[Senator Incitatus]

How much higher is Lega's ceiling? One must imagine that some lingering resistance exists in the south  from the days when they were a strictly chauvinist Northern party. If they can overcome that in the approaching years... could they form a true majority?

[swl]

Apparently, following the bad result in the European election,  M5S members are having today a confidence vote on Luigi du Maio (via their online platform)

[jaichind]

 Salvini ready to end Italy government unless M5S backs tax plan

[Andrea]

Apparently, following the bad result in the European election,  M5S members are having today a confidence vote on Luigi du Maio (via their online platform)

Result: 80% in favour of Di Maio