Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein  (Read 169879 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #200 on: August 31, 2019, 08:21:59 AM »

Thr Five Stars want a reduction in parlimentarians? If only there was a recent effort to abolish the Senate that they could have supported 😒
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #201 on: September 02, 2019, 06:39:12 PM »

Zingaretti and Di Maio are very close to a deal. The issue of what the heck to do with Di Maio finally got resolved when Zingaretti proposed a government with no deputies at all. Di Maio at one point seemed like he wanted to be deputy PM or bust, but eventually endorsed the compromise. We still don't know what ministry he'll get shuffled into, but we know it won't be his current super-ministry and won't be the interior either. It won't be the economy either, as the people talked about for that are figures with a European profile (for obvious reasons). Dario Franceschini will probably be the PD's pointman. Di Maio's final request is that the new cabinet not include anyone with a conviction, which seems reasonable enough (although it is admittedly controversial in a country like Italy).

We still know very little about the policy platform of the new cabinet (in particular, what will happen to the security decrees), but we should find out very soon, together with the full cabinet.

Tomorrow M5S's online members will be called to ratify the agreement, which they most likely will if it has Grillo and Di Maio's blessing. Then Conte should announce the new cabinet either the same day or Wednesday. They'd be sworn in soon after, and the confidence vote should be held Friday or Saturday.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #202 on: September 03, 2019, 07:34:18 AM »

So what happened with di Maios concerns with the deal. Does he feel the pd gave  to him?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #203 on: September 03, 2019, 11:50:24 AM »

What time approximately will the results be announced?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #204 on: September 03, 2019, 12:22:30 PM »

What time approximately will the results be announced?

Voting closed at six (1 hour ago) Results are expected imminently. If the Bond yield spread is anything to go by, investors are expecting the deal to pass.

Here are the central points of the draft agreement between PD-M5S: https://www.corriere.it/politica/19_settembre_03/governo-blog-stelle-bozza-programma-m5s-pd-26-punti-a42f91e6-ce1d-11e9-95aa-93e3e08ee08a.shtml

Looks like M5S got a lot of what they wanted, lots of expensive promises in there (including freezing VAT (Sales Tax)) without saying much on how they want to finance it.

Do you have an English translation of the 26 point plan?
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jaichind
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« Reply #205 on: September 03, 2019, 12:36:08 PM »

SI - 63,146 votes (79.3%)
NO - 16,488 votes (20.7%)
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rob in cal
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« Reply #206 on: September 03, 2019, 12:55:53 PM »

So does 5star have to repudiate the recently passed security decrees?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #207 on: September 04, 2019, 01:58:34 AM »

The Draft agreement is vague on migration. It speaks of more European cooperation, getting rid of the Dublin regulation, stopping illegal trafficking and and promoting integration (hinting at a long-planned bill to allow for Citizenship for some children of migrants born in Italy)
The 26 points do not forsee a Abolition of the security decree - only amending it in consultation with the President. So not a complete turn on migration policy - as predicted.

As I know this will be interesting to many: The person tapped to be interior minister is Luciana Lamorgese.

If it is Lamorgese then it will be a sharp turn on migration policy.
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Andrea
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« Reply #208 on: September 04, 2019, 09:49:09 AM »

New Cabinet

Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (M5S)
Home Affairs: Luciana Lamorgese
Justice Alfonso Bonafede (M5S)
Defense: Lorenzo Guerini (PD)
Economy and finances: Roberto Gualtieri (PD)
Ministro dello sviluppo economico: Stefano Patuanelli (M5S)
Transportsi: Paola De Micheli (PD)
Agricolture: Teresa Bellanova (PD)
Environment : Sergio Costa (M5S)
Work and Social Policies: Nunzia Catalfo (M5S)
Education: Lorenzo Fioramonti (M5S)
Culture and Tourism: Dario Franceschini (PD)
Health: Roberto Speranza (Article One aka Bersani's splinters)

Regional Affairs: Francesco Boccia (PD)
South: Giuseppe Provenzano (PD)
Equal Opportunities and Family: Elena Bonetti (PD)
Relationship with Parliament: Federico d'Incą (M5S)
Technological Innovation and Digitalization: Paola Pisano (M5S)
Public Administration: Fabiana Dadone (M5S)
European Affairs: Enzo Amendola (PD)

Secretary to the Cabinet Presidency: Riccardo Fraccaro (M5S)

Cabinet will be sworn in tomorrow at 10 am.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #209 on: September 04, 2019, 01:40:49 PM »

Di Maio won another concession from Zingaretti in appointing a close ally as Secretary to the Presidency of the Council. Until very recently PD was intent on keeping that post for itself as a way to keep an eye on Conte (like Lega had last year). PD has given up a LOT from its original demands, and I honestly have no idea why given that they have much less to lose from a new election than M5S. Still, good news that they found an agreement.

Journalists have noted that Southerners are overrepresented in the new team, forming an outright majority of 11 out of 21. It makes some degree of sense given that M5S's voter base is largely Southern, but I like to think that they also want to spite the Lega. Also, there are only 7 women out of 21, not nearly the gender parity that Conte was supposedly trying to promote.

Lots of new (or at least not too seasoned) faces in the cabinet, although Franceschini did land a job in the end. The "heaviest" ministry for PD is obviously the Economy with Gualtieri, who will become the first explicitly partisan economy minister since 2011, which is a nice break from the post-Monti era of Italian politics. Toninelli is mercifully out of the infrastructure ministry, his run of it having been widely considered a disaster. De Micheli is close to Zingaretti and probably comes closest to being his "eyes" in the new government. She's relatively new and I'm curious to see how she does. Speranza from MDP is an interesting choice, since he has some very bad blood with the Renzi wing of the party. I'm also somewhat surprised that Nicola Morra didn't make it into the government team, he's a widely respected M5S parliamentary leader and is ideologically on the left wing of the party.

Swearing-in tomorrow morning, as Andrea said. Meaning we'll finally be rid of Salvini and be able to come back to a sane management of refugee arrivals.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #210 on: September 04, 2019, 01:45:56 PM »

Wondering in the end if the new government will  help keep 5star together and viable as a long-term movement or whether it's electoral decline will continue.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #211 on: September 05, 2019, 02:50:56 AM »

Di Maio won another concession from Zingaretti in appointing a close ally as Secretary to the Presidency of the Council. Until very recently PD was intent on keeping that post for itself as a way to keep an eye on Conte (like Lega had last year). PD has given up a LOT from its original demands, and I honestly have no idea why given that they have much less to lose from a new election than M5S. Still, good news that they found an agreement.

Journalists have noted that Southerners are overrepresented in the new team, forming an outright majority of 11 out of 21. It makes some degree of sense given that M5S's voter base is largely Southern, but I like to think that they also want to spite the Lega. Also, there are only 7 women out of 21, not nearly the gender parity that Conte was supposedly trying to promote.

Lots of new (or at least not too seasoned) faces in the cabinet, although Franceschini did land a job in the end. The "heaviest" ministry for PD is obviously the Economy with Gualtieri, who will become the first explicitly partisan economy minister since 2011, which is a nice break from the post-Monti era of Italian politics. Toninelli is mercifully out of the infrastructure ministry, his run of it having been widely considered a disaster. De Micheli is close to Zingaretti and probably comes closest to being his "eyes" in the new government. She's relatively new and I'm curious to see how she does. Speranza from MDP is an interesting choice, since he has some very bad blood with the Renzi wing of the party. I'm also somewhat surprised that Nicola Morra didn't make it into the government team, he's a widely respected M5S parliamentary leader and is ideologically on the left wing of the party.

Swearing-in tomorrow morning, as Andrea said. Meaning we'll finally be rid of Salvini and be able to come back to a sane management of refugee arrivals.

It is totally possible that PD simply believes getting its hat handed to them by M5S is much better and even politically preferable than handing alt-right fascists total control of Italy through a new election. Politics are so cynical these days that we cannot compute an act of humble, patriotic duty as just that. At least with the finance AND interior ministries and a list of doable legislative demands PD still has a huge say in how Italy is governed. And it gives a real shot at keeping Salvini out of power for at least three years and quite possibly longer. Frankly this is how politics OUGHT to work and it is embarassing to Spain and everywhere else right now that Italy (of all countries) is showing how a people-centered politics works.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #212 on: September 05, 2019, 11:18:26 AM »
« Edited: September 05, 2019, 01:14:41 PM by Secret Cavern Survivor »

That's a good point, yeah. I think there is genuine fear of an all-powerful Salvini among the PD's ranks (motivated both by cynical and altruistic considerations). It's hard to explain Renzi's about-face about governing with M5S or Zingaretti's insistence on making it work in the face of repeated humiliations otherwise.

Anyway, the new government was indeed sworn in this morning. Conte then swiftly called Von Der Leyen to indicate that, as rumored, Italy's nominee to the European Commission will be Paolo Gentiloni. He's a solid choice, a respected and seasoned international player who has been able to successfully argue Italy's case in Europe in the past. Even more important, he is being seriously considered for the Economic Affairs portfolio. Netting such a post would be a major diplomatic win for Italy, given that it is directly relevant to the budget negotiations that Italy repeatedly goes through with the EC (the current commissioner, Moscovici, was heavily involved in last year's budget fight).

Aside from that, the new Conte government's first act has been to challenge the constitutionality of a regional law in FVG on grounds that it discriminates against migrants. I don't know the details, but given who governs FVG right now, that's almost certainly a good move, and an obvious change of pace from the yellow-green days.

Confidence vote will be Monday in the House, Tuesday in the Senate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #213 on: September 06, 2019, 08:08:39 PM »

That's a good point, yeah. I think there is genuine fear of an all-powerful Salvini among the PD's ranks (motivated both by cynical and altruistic considerations). It's hard to explain Renzi's about-face about governing with M5S or Zingaretti's insistence on making it work in the face of repeated humiliations otherwise.


Confidence vote will be Monday in the House, Tuesday in the Senate.

This summer Salvini was saying he wanted "full powers". Consider the sinister implications of the two words. The fear within PD ranks was justified. Also, it's remarkable that apparently Salvini fell out the Trump's favour due to his double play with Russia. In spite I find Luigi Di Maio even more disturbing than Albert Rivera, I'm glad that PD reached and agreement with M5S. The change of government in Italy and the recent developments in the British Parliament give some breathing space. I hope the new Conte government lasts enough and everything goes well, although there are signs of economic slowdown everywhere.

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« Reply #214 on: September 07, 2019, 09:42:23 AM »

can't wait for Conte to be a sort of perpetual PM that operates as a mouthpiece for whatever coalition has been cobbled together.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #215 on: September 09, 2019, 02:50:19 PM »

Conte received the House's confidence tonight: 343 yes, 263 no, 3 abstentions, 21 absent.

Slightly wider numbers than expected, which bodes reasonably well for the Senate vote tomorrow (which should be a little closer due to more potential M5S defections). Conte's definitely got this.

Lega and FdI continued their histrionics today, yelling and holding up chairs inside parliament, and organizing a big demonstration outside. FI didn't participate, although they still had harsh words against the government. TFW Berlusconi is the adult in the room.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #216 on: September 10, 2019, 01:13:09 PM »

Confidence in the Senate as well: 169 yes, 133 no, 5 abstentions, 14 absent. Nugnes (former M5S) voted yes, but her three comrades didn't despite all of them hailing from the Movement's left wing. Three Senators for Life also voted yes: Liliana Segre (Holocaust survivor), Elena Cattaneo (stem cell researcher) and Mario Monti (lol). Two dissidents, one from each party: Gianluigi Paragone for M5S, Matteo Richetti for PD. Not the most comfortable majority, but it should hold. The government Conte 2.0 is now fully in power.

The winning for the new government doesn't stop here. Paolo Gentiloni today was appointed European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, arguably the most important job in the EC after its president, and an especially crucial job for a country like Italy that constantly has to negotiate with Europe over its budget. This seems to suggest that Europe is intending to be more lenient with this government than it was with the previous, which is probably the only way this government has a chance to succeed.

Now let's see what they make of all this.
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SPQR
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« Reply #217 on: September 14, 2019, 05:01:22 PM »

This surprising summer caught everyone by surprise...me included, since I was enjoying my holidays in the seaside when Salvini decided to pull the plug (the day of my birthday, what a gift).

PD did the most sensible thing by agreeing to a government with M5S (and LeU...). Elections in October would have led either to a Lega absolute majority, or a Lega-Fratelli d'Italia easy majority. It would have been frightening to say the least, since they would also have chosen the next President in 2022.

Reaching 2022 is indeed IMO the primary target this gov't should have, timewise.
Even though there are daily rumours of Renzi breaking out of PD and forming his own party within a purely proportional electoral system, and Calenda (former minister of economic development, current eurodeputy) did leave PD following the alliance with M5S.

Interesting times ahead for sure...but interesting is better than scary.
As a PD member who has always deeply despised the 5 Star Movement, I consider myself quite satisfied with this summer's outcome.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #218 on: September 17, 2019, 06:18:03 AM »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.


Can't he just disappear for the sake of rotting corpse of European left?
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DL
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« Reply #219 on: September 17, 2019, 07:02:49 AM »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #220 on: September 17, 2019, 07:19:21 AM »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #221 on: September 17, 2019, 07:19:28 AM »

Hilarious stuff. Actually this might even work out for the best - presuming a new electoral system - so long as the PD and Renzi take the opportunity to fish in somewhat different pools. Of course it's the PD and it's Renzi so... er...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #222 on: September 17, 2019, 07:21:09 AM »

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

I'm going to hazard a guess that they're pretty much all genepool DCs who claim to favour political Reform in the same vague sense that their parents favoured Stability.
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DL
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« Reply #223 on: September 17, 2019, 09:23:31 AM »


Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #224 on: September 17, 2019, 09:28:11 AM »


Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?

They are populists, but not in a way easily linked to a particular position on the left/right scale.
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