Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.

The Lega still wants that? I thought they had basically given up on it when they expanded to the South

They still support muh federalism, though now they try to pretend it's not a North vs South thing (even though it very much is in practice).

The real differences between Lega and FdI are more cultural than ideological, though. They are heirs to very different political traditions, even if the two have now converged on a similar platform.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.

The Lega still wants that? I thought they had basically given up on it when they expanded to the South

They still support muh federalism, though now they try to pretend it's not a North vs South thing (even though it very much is in practice).

The real differences between Lega and FdI are more cultural than ideological, though. They are heirs to very different political traditions, even if the two have now converged on a similar platform.

Would you mind elaborating on this?

The short version is that FdI is a continuation of the postfascist current in Italy, with all that implies in terms of disturbing historical references (they're not overtly supportive of Mussolini anymore, but they also aren't really interested in condemning him - think of it sort of like the way Southern Republicans treat the Confederacy these days). This means they do best in Lazio and in some areas of the South, and their electorate has always skewed poorer. Meanwhile, Lega's core constituency are Northern small business owners, and their cultural tradition is steeped into weird Northern Italian folklore with neopagan undertones (they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water). Salvini has moved them away from that, but the roots are still there.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

(they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water)

Like, what?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

(they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water)

Like, what?

I am still amazed.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Italy might even have a contest between FdI and Lega if we continue like this.

[SPQR]

Italy might even have a contest between FdI and Lega if we continue like this.

Erm, no.

[Kingpoleon]

The short version is that FdI is a continuation of the postfascist current in Italy, with all that implies in terms of disturbing historical references (they're not overtly supportive of Mussolini anymore, but they also aren't really interested in condemning him - think of it sort of like the way Southern Republicans treat the Confederacy these days). This means they do best in Lazio and in some areas of the South, and their electorate has always skewed poorer. Meanwhile, Lega's core constituency are Northern small business owners, and their cultural tradition is steeped into weird Northern Italian folklore with neopagan undertones (they still have this whole ritual about drinking the Po's water). Salvini has moved them away from that, but the roots are still there.

Not sure if that says much - the actual neo-Confederates here have tried to assassinate Southern Republicans.

[President Johnson]

Di Maio resigns as Leader of M5S.

That's good. He should also resign as foreign minister, because the guy has zero credentials for this job. He's merely a political hack, who didn't finish university and has no knowledge of the English language.

[jaichind]

Luigi Di Maio steps down as leader of 5 Star Movement right before this weekend regional elections.  I suspect a general election is not too far off.  PM Matteo Salvini coming soon I suspect.

[mileslunn]

Is it pretty much inevitable that Salvini is going to become PM someday?  This could get very interesting and actually if he follows through on his plans, could really hurt the Eurozone and may even be a lifeline to Brexiters in UK who can point to that as why they are better off outside EU than inside due to mess.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it pretty much inevitable that Salvini is going to become PM someday?  This could get very interesting and actually if he follows through on his plans, could really hurt the Eurozone and may even be a lifeline to Brexiters in UK who can point to that as why they are better off outside EU than inside due to mess.

Yes, I would say it's inevitable that Salvini gets power someday. Lega, through it's ideological transformation from a regional party to a far-right one, has co-opted the machine that Berlusconi used to previously dominate Italian politics. In doing so, Salvini has taken the position Berlusconi used to hold...and Berlusconi never really vanished from Italian politics.  He just rode the natural winds of fate that swing countries from one pole to another, never really leaving his position even when the Right was on the downswing. If Lega doesn't get power this time, Salvini will still stay on (since Lega will at minimum double it's seats) and get it next time. The man's 46, he's got a lot of years to preside over the Right like Berlusconi did in his heyday.  

But it will be hard to beat him this time. The right alliance from last time continues to have >50% in polls, and the electoral system hasn't been changed...yet.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1220130355598020615

[Antonio the Sixth]

Important to note that an electoral reform bill is currently working its way through Parliament, which would establish a German-like MMP system with a 5% threshold. There's likely to be some haggling over the details among government forces, but all of them have a vested interest in agreeing on something along these lines. And there's a non-insignificant chance that all or parts of Forza Italia back the idea too. It's far from a done deal, but it's something to watch.

[brucejoel99]

Luigi Di Maio steps down as leader of 5 Star Movement right before this weekend regional elections.  I suspect a general election is not too far off.  PM Matteo Salvini coming soon I suspect.

Man, who would've guessed that a directionless party with "establishment sux" as the party platform would go nowhere.

At least you know what you'll get with Salvini (ugh)

Di Maio resigns as Leader of M5S.

That's good. He should also resign as foreign minister, because the guy has zero credentials for this job. He's merely a political hack, who didn't finish university and has no knowledge of the English language.

30-something y/o, a college dropout, a former stadium drink seller, with no English (or correct Italian) spoken.

Ladies & gentlemen, the minister of foreign affairs.

Important to note that an electoral reform bill is currently working its way through Parliament, which would establish a German-like MMP system with a 5% threshold. There's likely to be some haggling over the details among government forces, but all of them have a vested interest in agreeing on something along these lines. And there's a non-insignificant chance that all or parts of Forza Italia back the idea too. It's far from a done deal, but it's something to watch.

Italy really is a funny case at this point. A few years ago, they changed the system & made it less proportional in an effort to keep the populists away from government, yet now that Salvini has the largest party, everybody has changed their tune: Salvini wants to move as far away from proportional representation as possible while everybody else wants to make the system as proportional as possible.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So Emilia-Romania and Calabria today. Probably the first one is more interesting. Is there any chance of local coalition between left and M5S in Emilia?

[bigic]

The centre-left, if they win, won't even need M5S. The winning coalition effectively has a guaranteed majority.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

The centre-left, if they win, won't even need M5S. The winning coalition effectively has a guaranteed majority.

Just started to read about regional electoral system. Should done it earlier lol

[Antonio the Sixth]

The M5S tried to enter a stealth electoral path with PD by just not running candidates at all (with the assumption that whatever voter base they have left at this point will back PD over Lega), but M5S activists, in their infinite wisdom, decided otherwise. So now the M5S is running token lists in a race they know to be beyond hopeless, and probably just hurting their coalition partner in the process.

[SPQR]

There was talk that regional leaders of M5S in Emilia Romagna were trying to convince voters to vote for the M5S list but for Bonaccini (center-left) as president...doubt it will have much of an effect though.

[bigic]

A few graphs on relationship between the change in turnout compared to 2014 and partisan lean of municipalities. This might not be a particularly good indicator but it is, along with pre-election polls, everything we have until the polls close...

Open the tweet to see the whole thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1221437923050119168

[palandio]

The M5S tried to enter a stealth electoral path with PD by just not running candidates at all (with the assumption that whatever voter base they have left at this point will back PD over Lega), but M5S activists, in their infinite wisdom, decided otherwise. So now the M5S is running token lists in a race they know to be beyond hopeless, and probably just hurting their coalition partner in the process.

Also significant, but not surprising, that among the seven coalitions running there are center-left, center-right, M5S, some anti-vaxers and three far-left coalitions (Power to the People, The Other Emilia-Romagna and the Communist Party). Three out of seven. No competition on the right, if you don't count the anti-vaxers.

[jaichind]

Exit poll has Dem ahead 49 to 46

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Exit poll Tecné - Mediaset:

BONACCINI (CSX): 46,5-50,5%

BORGONZONI (CDX): 43.5-47.5%

BENINI (M5S): 2-6%

---------------

Exit poll Opinio (copertura 80%):

BONACCINI (CSX): 47-51%

BORGONZONI (CDX): 44-48%

BENINI (M5S): 2-5%

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

[Mike88]

The exit polls in both Emilia-Romagna and Calabrian seem in line with pre-election polls. The high turnout in Emilia-Romagna seems to have benefited both the PD and Lega. M5S... well, it's basically over for them, isn't it?

Counting will be very slow, right?

[parochial boy]

"Centro"destra? That's kind of a joke at this point, no?