Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[jaichind]

Why don’t people like the Roma? I’ve always been confused by that.

My visits to Rome over the years gives me the impression that
a) Pickpockets are a big problem in Rome
b) A lot of the Pickpockets are Roma.

If my impression represents how local Italians see things I can see why action to deport non-citizen Roma could have political traction.

[jaichind]

 Salvini ready to end Italy government unless M5S backs tax plan

[jaichind]

As the party that pushes the country into a mid-term election I suspect Lega will under-perform polls.

[jaichind]

Wait.  Now Renzi is for working with M5S.  Was he not totally against working with M5S last year?

[jaichind]

SI - 63,146 votes (79.3%)
NO - 16,488 votes (20.7%)

[jaichind]

League Candidate at 56.5% to 60.5% in Umbria Vote: Exit Polls

[jaichind]

How come Italia Viva did not put up a candidate in Umbria?

[jaichind]

The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.

My bet: Salvini shy-voters, in particular if they are of Southern origin.

I think part of it must be tactical voting by Ricci for the Center-Right bloc

[jaichind]

With around 5% sections reporting it is

Centre-right       58.75%
Centre-left–M5S 36.83%
Ricci                   2.03%

which seems to match exit polls

[jaichind]

Luigi Di Maio steps down as leader of 5 Star Movement right before this weekend regional elections.  I suspect a general election is not too far off.  PM Matteo Salvini coming soon I suspect.

[jaichind]

Exit poll has Dem ahead 49 to 46

[jaichind]

When does the polls close on Sunday and any link to results ?

[jaichind]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

[jaichind]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/italy-s-conte-resisting-pressure-to-resign-as-senate-vote-looms

What?  There is another Senate vote ?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/italy-s-conte-resisting-pressure-to-resign-as-senate-vote-looms

What?  There is another Senate vote ?

That is a vote on a report on the state of the judiciary system that will be presented by Minister of Justice Alfonso Bonafede. Of course it is not binding for confidence matters (well, unless the government calls a confidence question upon the vote, and I have no idea whether it shall happen) but in any case it might make Conte look extremely bad if the report was turned down by the Senate.

I am reading in various news wires that Conte’s coalition allies are pressing him to step down before this Senate vote they expect he will lose in a tactical move to allow him a chance to try to form a new government.

[jaichind]

I may be naïve but it seems to me it would be pretty easy for Conte to round up some FI and IV Senator to back his new government.  They would all be too petrified of a snap election where they would lose their seats.  Getting FI onboard seems the way to avoid having IV as the single point of failure for Conte III.

[jaichind]

If a Draghi government is formed without M5S support does that not mean a second wind for M5S in the next election for them to pick up the anti-establishment vote that it lost.

[jaichind]

Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

[jaichind]

Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

I agree that FdI is likely to make gains out of this, but you would be hard pressed to say that Renzi was going to take many "anti-establishment" votes otherwise.

I was thinking that Fdl takes votes from Lega and M5S

[jaichind]

Draghi Says He Will Resign

[jaichind]

Italian President Sergio Mattarella rejected a resignation offer from Prime Minister Mario Draghi, according to a statement from the head of state’s office.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports: Mario Draghi has signaled that he’s determined to resign as Italy’s prime minister next week since he doesn’t have the backing of all the parties in his splintered governing alliance, according to people familiar with the matter. 

[jaichind]

Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: 

Italy Coalition on Cusp of Collapse as Parties Don’t Back Draghi

"The center-right League party indicated on Wednesday that it will join Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia in skipping a confidence vote over Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government, raising the prospect the government will collapse and of snap elections as soon as the fall."