Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Lord Halifax]

I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.

It's not official, to be clear. And yesterday night he said that he has no intention of launching a new party.
But, speaking as somebody who is a PD member and knows a few people close to Renzi, it seems highly likely.

Amongst the possible names for this party there were "Libdem" and "Cittadini", which is Italian for Ciudadanos...

[Lord Halifax]

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening to a country in which "national conservatives " and unapologetic fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

What does that mean?

[Lord Halifax]

Any idea on who gets inferior ministry, and if pd would it be Minneti again?

Pun intended?

[Lord Halifax]

-The M5S wants a minimum wage.

Is PD against that?

[Lord Halifax]

Centrist liberalism, basically Macronisme. He sees a space having opened up there since FI has been smashed to pieces by Lega and PD having moved left to coalition with M5S.

How can it be a move to the left for the PD to form a coalition with the rightwing populist M5S when the alternative would almost certainly have been a majority government by the even more rightwing and even more populist Lega under Salvini?

They are populists, but not in a way easily linked to a particular position on the left/right scale.

[Lord Halifax]

Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S. The seat reduction is not good or bad a priori, it's a matter of proportion. The question is: do 400 deputies and 200 senators ensure an addequate and proportional representation of all regions and territories? I tend to think the proposed size is too small. but I'd like to know the opinion of our Italian friends.

I think somewhat differently. I am not sure that 400 Deputies and 200 Senators is good or bad a priori - although I lean towards the bad side.
However getting there through a seat reduction without anything else, which is not going to cure the ailments of the Italian political system and means first of all making us the people less represented, is idiotic.
Having a round number of members of Parliament is probably the best part of the reform and I'm not joking (well yes, it is also going to save mayyybe 100 million euros each year, but that's literally crumbs for a state like Italy).

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

[Lord Halifax]

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Answering a question with a question is annoying so please avoid doing that.

Unicameralism is the default in a non-federal parliamentary system as it's cheaper and more efficient, so you need an argument for why bicameralism is necessary. In a federal system one of the chambers represents the states or provinces, but in a unitary state bicameralism essentially serves no valid purpose other than - ideally - making the legislative procedure more thorough, but that's often a bogus argument and it doesn't seem to apply to Italy.

So I'll repeat my question: "Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What is the argument against unicameralism in Italy?"

[Lord Halifax]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

[Lord Halifax]

Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

The President of the Republic cannot dissolve Parliament during the last six months of their tenure (unless compelled to because the legislature's term would expire as well in that same time frame). This is commonly called semestre bianco (white semester).

Okay, I can see there is a Wiki article under the Italy name.(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semestre_bianco ).

But why did they make that rule?

[Lord Halifax]

Ma buttana di quella travestita vergine madonna e tuttu gli angeli in colonna, porco dio

Translation?

[Lord Halifax]

what sort of people still support Forza Italia?

[Lord Halifax]

Gonna pick up my polling average even though the amount of polling we're getting right now is really pathetic for being a month before a national election. Only 5 polls conducted within the past week, so take it with a lot of salt. Also the lists still aren't officially finalized, but they might as well be.

PD 23.8%
FdI 23.7%
Lega 13.2%
M5S 11.2%
FI 8.2%
A/IV 5.4%
AVS 3.3%
Italexit 2.3%
+E 2.1%
NM 1.9%
IC 0.8%

Right at 47%, Left at 30%. Lovely stuff all around.

It would be easier to get an overview if you divided the parties into right, left and others rather than just list them all in descending order. I think I'm not the only one who can't remember which side all the small ones are on.

[Lord Halifax]

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum.

what sort of constitutional changes would they like?

[Lord Halifax]

Neo-fascists win the honor of presiding over a possibly catastrophic economic crisis. As someone who enjoys drinking out of poisoned chalices, I am very envious! 

That's nothing to celebrate. Fascists are masters in exploiting crises to consolidate power.

Does Italy have any emergency powers clause Meloni could invoke?

[Lord Halifax]

I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

[Lord Halifax]

I was wondering is Forza Italia likely to disintegrate when Berlusconi dies? and if so, who is most likely to get their vote?

Sorry for bumping this, but given how extremely old Berlusconi is (he turns 86 in a few days) it seems very likely he'll either die or become senile during the term, so what happens to FI afterwards? And if it disintegrates will that benefit FdI?