Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Walmart_shopper]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

[Walmart_shopper]

Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

This is a good question. As Five Star voters have fled their party, both PD and Lega have fairly equally benefited. Whether Lega gets a majority or not probably depends on how successfully they focus the campaign on immigration and general populism, which attracts Five Star voters. If PD can reorient the narrative around economic issues that will attract those same voters to PD.

[Walmart_shopper]

I doubt whether this is a smart move in the long run (M5S may be needed in the future), but for now I will be eager to see Lega and FdI win a majority. Hopefully they can lead the way and inspire a similar movement throughout all of the continent.

More likely they will sufficiently toxify racist politics in Europe to an extent that no other country will want to touch the far right. In that way Italy, after being saved by Europe over and over again, will become Europe's sacrificial lamb. It would be poetic and beautiful if not so awful.

What exactly do you imagine a Lega-FI government would do that would make the far-right particularly unpopular? Far-right parties are already disliked by the establishment, I don't think forming a government all their own in Italy will particularly help their image, but I don't think it would really make it any worse either.

You can see what happens when far-right parties rule by themselves in Hungary. Liberal newspaper editors and NGOs talk badly about them, but Hungary has not collapsed, living standards have not declined, the government is popular. If Fidesz has done fine in government, why do you imagine Lega would be so much worse?

Do you think Italy's economy will crumble without constant injection of new African economic migrants? Putting aside the question of whether such migrants are good for the economy or not (they aren't), as people have already pointed out multiple times, they are a recent development, Italy did just fine without them for decades.

I know this is your shtick, but there are actually other issues that affect people's voting habits aside from immigration. The Italian economic situation is quite possibly the least optimistic in the whole of Europe, almost all parties are defined by corruption and many other italian leaders have been felled by the hubris that comes from sky high approvals. In such an environment there is no reason to believe any government can maintain high approval ratings for entire terms (indeed, has any government lasted a full term in the Second Republic?)

Other issues don't matter. The economy goes up and down constantly but if people vote for any party besides Lega, the demographics of their country are changed forever and they can never change them back.

If the Italian economy weren't operating like an arthritic, septic old woman then maybe the demography of Italy would't be so close to the arthritic old woman who needs young immigrants to keep her alive.

In fact, the dysfunction of Italian politics and economics are why immigrants are necessary and also why they are met with such hostility. People view them as a burden, but Italians themselves are a much greater burden and obviously caused this mess in the first place. With a normal economy and politics immigrants would also be necessary, but they would be recognized as an integral piece of a flourishing economy.

If Italians believe that their culture is worth safeguarding, they should actually make sure that their culture is worth preserving. An economy that keeps Mario at home with Mama and the Playstation until he is a. 40 or b. moving to the UK is not the sign of a culture worth preserving. The whole world loves the nostalgia of Nona's Italy, but precisely because of the economy that Italy is dead, and the only migrants contributing to that reality aren't Africans but Italians themselves fleeing their own dumpster fire.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently there are now some talks between M5S and PD to ally and avoid salvini as premier.
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/renzi-di-maio-proposta-indecente_it_5d4dba7be4b0fc06ace782eb

Other than sneering Florentine liberals who cannot fathom joining up with the rabble, who would actually oppose this among PD and Five Star voters? And how does this hurt eitger, politically?

[Walmart_shopper]

Can we maybe try to avoid turning every thread on this board into the same thread? It is getting a little bit tedious.

It isn't a matter of coincidence that the same debates are regurgitated from country to country. The major divide in Western politics is a nationalist-populist right, on the one hand, and a globalist-liberal center-left tenuously allied with a more populist left. Look at your own country (or mine) for evidence of that. Actually, look at pretty much any country for evidence of that. It's clearly why you see the same narratives being replicated from thread to thread. I actually think it's an interesting discussion.

[Walmart_shopper]

Agreed. PD should not prop up the government. Go to elections, crush M5S and lead a hard opposition for 4 years (or less, it's Italy after all). After that hopefully Salvini loses.

It is hardly "propping up" the government if they are the government, in coalition with M5S. And the trajectory of Italian politics and Western European politics generally is such that a newer, lefter party could eclipse PD within four years anyway. Center left parties are too existentially threatened to play the long game. In any case, the institution-smashing and scapegoating tendency of the far right makes an ordinary democratic route back to power a lot harder. Give Salvini four years and you may be giving him the future.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is it possible for M5S and PD to make a joint run in a new election? They would likely garner a majority together and given how many ancestral PD voters are now M5S voters, such a merger doesn't seem nearly as problematic as a fascist majority. Push immigration issues to the margins, emphasize economic populism, and anathemize Lega on the places they are weakest politically (their social conservatism, for example).  Why wouldn't that work?

[Walmart_shopper]

Jesus, so what's next, new elections?

Whiplash from the PD-M5S government in the works.

[Walmart_shopper]

What are the policy proposals that a PD-M5S coalition could enact that would be popular, politically powerful, and which both sides would agree on? Obviously immigration policy would be swept aside. Could Zingaretti push the Renzi-ite majority in his party for M5S-friendly anti-austerity economic populism in return for a coalition he doesn't much want? Salvini is running a massively religious campaign, which is so odd in a relatively secular and rapidly secularizing country, which Italy is. Could the coalition take him on by enacting popular gay marriage and other socially liberal laws?

[Walmart_shopper]

It appears that Italy now has a left wing government that M5S says will be "a government of discontinuity." Nice, but I actually wonder how dramatic the whiplash will really be. In any case, I think it's a very smart political move.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Draft agreement is vague on migration. It speaks of more European cooperation, getting rid of the Dublin regulation, stopping illegal trafficking and and promoting integration (hinting at a long-planned bill to allow for Citizenship for some children of migrants born in Italy)
The 26 points do not forsee a Abolition of the security decree - only amending it in consultation with the President. So not a complete turn on migration policy - as predicted.

As I know this will be interesting to many: The person tapped to be interior minister is Luciana Lamorgese.

If it is Lamorgese then it will be a sharp turn on migration policy.

[Walmart_shopper]

Di Maio won another concession from Zingaretti in appointing a close ally as Secretary to the Presidency of the Council. Until very recently PD was intent on keeping that post for itself as a way to keep an eye on Conte (like Lega had last year). PD has given up a LOT from its original demands, and I honestly have no idea why given that they have much less to lose from a new election than M5S. Still, good news that they found an agreement.

Journalists have noted that Southerners are overrepresented in the new team, forming an outright majority of 11 out of 21. It makes some degree of sense given that M5S's voter base is largely Southern, but I like to think that they also want to spite the Lega. Also, there are only 7 women out of 21, not nearly the gender parity that Conte was supposedly trying to promote.

Lots of new (or at least not too seasoned) faces in the cabinet, although Franceschini did land a job in the end. The "heaviest" ministry for PD is obviously the Economy with Gualtieri, who will become the first explicitly partisan economy minister since 2011, which is a nice break from the post-Monti era of Italian politics. Toninelli is mercifully out of the infrastructure ministry, his run of it having been widely considered a disaster. De Micheli is close to Zingaretti and probably comes closest to being his "eyes" in the new government. She's relatively new and I'm curious to see how she does. Speranza from MDP is an interesting choice, since he has some very bad blood with the Renzi wing of the party. I'm also somewhat surprised that Nicola Morra didn't make it into the government team, he's a widely respected M5S parliamentary leader and is ideologically on the left wing of the party.

Swearing-in tomorrow morning, as Andrea said. Meaning we'll finally be rid of Salvini and be able to come back to a sane management of refugee arrivals.

It is totally possible that PD simply believes getting its hat handed to them by M5S is much better and even politically preferable than handing alt-right fascists total control of Italy through a new election. Politics are so cynical these days that we cannot compute an act of humble, patriotic duty as just that. At least with the finance AND interior ministries and a list of doable legislative demands PD still has a huge say in how Italy is governed. And it gives a real shot at keeping Salvini out of power for at least three years and quite possibly longer. Frankly this is how politics OUGHT to work and it is embarassing to Spain and everywhere else right now that Italy (of all countries) is showing how a people-centered politics works.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout change in the largest cities:

Roma -1.58
Milano -2.13
Napoli -10.71
Torino -7.72
Palermo -5.37
Genova -7.91

Pffft more like No Star.