Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[rob in cal]

  Isn't it the perception, fair or unfair, that they are involved in tonnes of petty crimes, such as pick pocketing and various scams?

[rob in cal]

  So, what is going on with Salvini and the migrant ships? On the one hand he refuses to take the Acquarius, but still Italian coast guard ships are bringing in others migrants, with more coming soon on the Diciotti.

[rob in cal]

  Is he talking about cleansing of cities of Roma or migrants or both?

[rob in cal]

  Any thoughts on the new immigration and security law now passed by the lower house. Does it go significantly in the direction that the League and other right wing parties want, or is it more for show?

[rob in cal]

  Yesterday a lower house committee passed a bill to allow what I interpret to mean a national initiative and referendum law, like we have in many US states and in Switzerland in which new laws may be voted on in a referendum if the proposal gets enough signatures. Right now Italy allows votes to approve existing laws, I believe, but this would be a big new step toward direct democracy. Does this have a good chance of going forward, and how do the non-government parties view it?

[rob in cal]

  Intresting that FI and the League still ran together, and that the League ran against its coalition partner.

[rob in cal]

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/03/01/migrant-arrivals-by-sea-down-95-in-2019-salvini_eeb8a43a-829d-4a28-a08d-65b4d34f7a27.html

Looks like Salvini is having some success with the flagship policy of his party.

[rob in cal]

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/03/20/man-hijacks-bus-carrying-pupils-and-sets-it-alight_c0d038c7-5b62-45ec-afa4-2429eceb6839.html

Anti Salvini activist from Senegal gets carried away with his feelings.

[rob in cal]

  I thought that Jobbik had made a big ideological u-turn in the last few years?  Anyway, is it correct that Lega won Perugia? If so, what is going on in Umbria, I thought that was kind of a junior Tuscany politically?

[rob in cal]

  It would be intresting to know what would have happened had the Gentiloni government had a longer term in office and more time for Interior minister Minnitti to claim credit for the migration clampdown that he instituted (and that Salvini has praised IIRC).  Then the PD, or at least some elements of it, could have part ownership of the question of better immigration law enforcement.

[rob in cal]

  If I was Salvini I wouldn't have done this breakup, as long as he was still getting 5 stars cooperation on big chunks of his agenda, and as far as I can see it seems that that was the case. I wonder if he is regretting things now.
PD now saying they want 5 star to go along with a repeal of the security decree that was recently passed. Doing so would be a pretty humiliating move on their part, basically showing that they have no deep principals in either direction, voting one month for it, the next month against.

[rob in cal]

Any idea on who gets inferior ministry, and if pd would it be Minneti again?

[rob in cal]

So what happened with di Maios concerns with the deal. Does he feel the pd gave  to him?

[rob in cal]

So does 5star have to repudiate the recently passed security decrees?

[rob in cal]

Wondering in the end if the new government will  help keep 5star together and viable as a long-term movement or whether it's electoral decline will continue.

[rob in cal]

  If the new government does make a big change in immigration or citizenship laws is that something that could trigger a referendum against it, like Salvini promised?  Also, I wonder if there is a big chunk of five star, lead by Di Maio?, that is fairly right wing when it comes to these issues?

[rob in cal]

  Any indication of whether the extension provoked much disagreement within the coalition?

[rob in cal]

  The expectations game reminds me of when the Republicans kept narrowly winning all those special elections for congressional seats in 2017 (Georgia, Montana, Kansas etc) but in each case by numbers that implied that they were in big trouble nationally. Looks pretty similar here.

[rob in cal]

  Wasn't Salvini talking about some kind of referendum campaign? Any developments on that?

[rob in cal]

 The poll is intresting, but how much of that means specific support for pro government parties, and how much of that is just personal support for Conte.

[rob in cal]

   What does M5S have to say about all this?  From the discussions it almost seems that they are a marginal player, which is ironic since they are the biggest party in the government. Is it that they are just trying to go along as long as possible and avoid new elections or rocking the boat because they know they will take huge losses in the next elections. 

[rob in cal]

  What is the deal with Italexit? Who are their voters and if they clear the threshold would their delegates vote for Meloni if she needed them?
  speaking of thresholds, when the dust settles, which of the smaller parties are likely to be running on their own, and thus likely to absorb votes that might not get any representation?

[rob in cal]

  In the recent city elections didn't the center left candidates do pretty well, even though nation wide polls were about the same as they are now. In other words, did they overperform polling?

[rob in cal]

  Any thoughts on what the results for the FPP seats would have been with a runoff provision where the top two advance?

[rob in cal]

   Would most A-IV voters have gone to the left in a runoff scenario?