Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:43:46 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 13
Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein  (Read 169942 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: June 18, 2018, 10:47:25 AM »
« edited: March 24, 2023, 06:05:40 AM by NUPES Enjoyer »

The old thread reached 85 pages, so I guess it's time for a new one.

For anyone who's joining us now, the M5S-Lega coalition government ostensibly "led" by Random Guy Giuseppe Conte has swiftly devolved into the Salvini Government, as the xenophobic neckbeard continues to monopolize attention with provocative statements and actions, like closing off Italian ports to the ships of NGOs rescuing migrants (which is, you know, against international law, but who's counting?).

So yeah, good times.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2018, 12:01:30 PM »

Lega first in the polls for the first time



...well, it had to happen. Now let's see how long it takes for Salvini to topple the government, re-form the right coalition, and win an absolute majority. I say it won't be more than two years.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2018, 12:39:27 PM »

Government's honeymoon period - Lega's especially. Not much can be read into that - remember where the PD were during the first phase of the Renzi government and where they ended up...

The difference here is that Salvini, being technically a "junior" partner (despite having written 70% of the government's program) can always turn and blame M5S for everything he fails to do, while getting credit for everything he succeeds in. It's a win-win situation.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2018, 01:56:06 AM »



"Unfortunately, we can't kick out these people who are citizens of our country merely on the basis of their ethnicity (even though we'd very much like to)."

Yup, totally not racist or anything... Roll Eyes
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2018, 03:46:07 AM »

  Is he talking about cleansing of cities of Roma or migrants or both?

He'll let his supporters read into it what they want, of course.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2018, 05:07:45 AM »

Christ's sake. Disband and start over.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2018, 02:50:04 PM »

The Italian contradiction: Tuscany may be a historical left stronghold, but its left voters look quite a bit like Lega Nord voters from Lombardy.

What the hell is that supposed to mean?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 06:29:20 AM »

So there's been a boom in racist violence in Italy over the past month or two, and Salvini is calling it fake news.

POPULISM Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2018, 03:20:16 PM »

God Renzi seems to be losing brain cells by the day. This stunt is only going to leave him more irrelevant than ever before. He could have had the decency to go quietly into the night and become a celebrity political commentator or something, but no, he insists on dragging this out and making a fool of himself. It's really a shame - the guy had a lot of potential.

Hopefully Zingaretti wins and this circus ends quickly.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2019, 02:20:11 PM »

  Yesterday a lower house committee passed a bill to allow what I interpret to mean a national initiative and referendum law, like we have in many US states and in Switzerland in which new laws may be voted on in a referendum if the proposal gets enough signatures. Right now Italy allows votes to approve existing laws, I believe, but this would be a big new step toward direct democracy. Does this have a good chance of going forward, and how do the non-government parties view it?

Muh direct democracy has always been one of M5S' major causes. Lega is less enthused about it, but they might still go for it as a way of getting concessions elsewhere (like on the Turin-Lyon high speed rail project, which M5S opposes).
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2019, 01:54:50 PM »

It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.

I know right?? A government that actually tried to implement an even modest UBI with no strings attached would actually have deserved real praise for trying something new in social policy. But obviously that was never going to happen in a government controlled by Salvini...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2019, 01:11:42 AM »

Lega thankfully finished just below the PCI's high point in 1976 (34.33% vs 34.37%). Still absolutely, bone-chillingly, existentially terrifying result.

We can only hope that this will be like PD in 2014. This is the high point, and now it's all downhill.

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2019, 01:57:55 PM »

In local elections, Lega has taken Piedmont, defeating the PD incumbent and giving it a full sweep of the big three Northern regions. The right looks set to make gains at the mayoral level too, but the left is holding up decently given the circumstances. M5S is imploding - its incumbent in Livorno didn't even make it to the runoff.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2019, 05:25:42 PM »

Otherwise, if these results hold, Italy could truly turn into the next Hungary.

I don't think I agree with this. Remember that Fidesz regularly gets about half of the vote in Hungary, with another 10-20% going to Almost-Literal Arrow Cross. Lega getting a third of the vote in Italy is absolutely horrifying (especially since it's overperforming in places like Umbria) and we definitely shouldn't understate how appalling it is that a party like Lega and an overgrown CoDbro like Salvini are in the driver's seat in a G7 country, but I don't think we should compare what's happening here to a country in which "national conservatives Smiley Smiley Smiley" and outright fascists get literally two-thirds of the vote between them.

I mean, fair, that was a bit hyperbolic in terms of the exact proportions. However, you're forgetting that Lega is not the only party that's trying to copy the Fidesz model. FdI has basically the exact same positions and they polled 6%. And I have no doubt that Berlusconi would be happy to go along with such a political project as long as his, er, "interests" are protected. That brings the total vote for a likely radical right coalition to almost 50%. And if M5S keeps imploding, at least a few of its voters will flock to that banner.

I guess that's still not quite Hungary levels of reactionary dominance, but it's about where Poland is right now.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2019, 09:40:27 PM »

Not a bad result for the center-left at all, honestly. Obviously losing Ferrara hurts, and there are a few other losses, but Ferrara was a given after the first round results, and everywhere else we held up decently. It's also nice to see Livorno coming back to the fold, if also expected. Almost in almost CS vs CD runoffs, the margin for the CS candidate has improved compared to the first round, showing either that CS voters are more consistent voters (since turnout dropped as a whole) or that M5S and other voters are closer to the left than to the right again (which, if confirmed, is terrible news for Luigi Di Maio). Either way, this relativizes the Salvini Wave of two week ago a little bit (although again, low turnout means that we can't make much of it).

Total municipalities won (not sure how much these labels are worth, but still the best we've got):
- Left and Center-Left: 111 (-42)
- Right and Center-Right: 85 (+40)
- M5S: 1 (-3)
- Independents: 24 (+6)
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2019, 04:04:17 PM »

So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?
I'd still be interested in an answer to this.

It's hard to say how serious it is yet. On the surface it seems very similar to the stuff that brought Strache down (promising favorable policy in the energy sector in exchange for campaign funding), but the main difference is that the people implicated on both sides seem to be pretty small fries. The question, as always, is whether Salvini knew and if he himself instigated the whole encounter. There's circumstantial evidence for that but nothing definitive.

In terms of consequences, Lega is still at record highs in the polls, so if this is going to hurt it, it hasn't so far. At this point Lega's rise in the polls feels more like a fundamental law of physics than anything that is in any way meaningfully connected to the fluctuations of Italian politics.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2019, 02:27:54 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2019, 04:23:25 PM by Secret Cavern Survivor »

Well, we are officially f**ked.


Salvini truly has inherited the Burlusconi machine. 

It's actually an interesting question whether the Lega's winning coalition will look similar to Forza Italia's in its heydays. It's definitely possible (we already know that a key pillar of Berlusconism, Northern small businessmen, have fully converted to Salvinism), but I suspect that other pieces of the Lega vote come from different traditions (a lot, depressingly, from the "red regions" that Berlusconi never managed to crack, and a lot also probably from the old AN vote).
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2019, 04:49:44 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 04:52:54 AM by Secret Cavern Survivor »

Lega introduces no-confidence motion against Conte. It should be debated and voted on next week.


Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

You haven't the faintest clue what you're talking about and if you have the slightest shed of self-awareness you really ought to shut up now.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2019, 04:50:39 AM »

Jesus F**king Christ what has this thread become

I'll say it: I wish all American posters could be preemptively banned from this board and only let back in if they have a proven record of not talking out of their asses about countries they know nothing about.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2019, 06:03:31 AM »


Other than sneering Florentine liberals who cannot fathom joining up with the rabble, who would actually oppose this among PD and Five Star voters? And how does this hurt eitger, politically?

Actually, this article is saying that Renzi is the one suggesting a deal. And Zingaretti is publicly opposed to it.

Still, it's just rumors. I won't take any of these ideas seriously until someone brings them up openly.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2019, 02:49:58 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2019, 03:32:30 PM by Secret Cavern Survivor »

But take a look at this map: you will never see, in an advanced Western nation in the 21st century, a clearer example of an incoherent howl of pain and protest take electoral form.

That's a chillingly excellent description.


Quote
(which in Italy are rather rich; the social geography of urban Italy is very different to the Western European norm)

Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being mostly bourgeois). And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2019, 04:04:48 PM »

Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being pretty bourgeois. And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.

German and Scandinavian cities are like British ones but better planned. National stereotypes all round there, I know, I know, but it is true.

Anyway I wasn't thinking so much of patterns of poverty so much as patterns of money, and this is what is unusual about Italian urban life. Consider Paris. The west end of the city proper is extremely rich and most of the rest of the city proper has been thoroughly gentrified since the middle twentieth century, but these areas are far from being the only places where money lives: you have the villa developments at Neuilly and so on, and then further out the various thoroughly suburban (but still flat out rich) municipalities as one keeps out wandering westwards. In most Italian cities, though, money lives in the centre and the geography often looks as if there's a gravitational pull at work - with a few little quirks here and there. Italy hardly lacks for middle class suburbs, of course, but they tend to have a firmly lower middle class quality, even if prosperous - which explains a great deal about political developments in the country in recent decades.

That's an interesting point, and actually something I myself didn't know was unique about Italian cities. And, well, I completely missed the mark on German and Scandinavian ones. My bad. Tongue

Just to quibble over details, I wouldn't characterize most of Paris as just "gentrifying" - the pockets of wealth are not just confined to the far-West of the city but also extend considerably into the center of the city (the "true", historical centre, ie the first 10 arrondissements), and have done so for a long time. The Center- and South-Eastern neighborhood are gentrifying, while the last (shrinking) working-class enclaves are in the Northeast. Here's a cool map I found:



Also, the suburbs that extend West into the Yvelines are not uniformly super-wealthy either. Vélizy, the city I used to live in, is firmly middle-class overall (our family is definitely wealthier than the median, and we're not exactly 1%ers; also, there's significant social housing). Further West, there is Trappes, which has a heavy immigrant and second-/third-generation presence and is frequently one of the kind of places lambasted by the xenophobic right as proof of everything that's wrong with Those People (it's also, incidentally, Benoît Hamon's political base, which believe it or not is still pretty supportive of him even now).

All minor quibbles, I'll concede, but I don't think "mixed but gentrifying Paris vs hyper-wealthy Western suburbs" is the appropriate characterization of the situation. Overall, if you're really hyper-wealthy, you're just as likely to live inside the city limits as West of them.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2019, 02:11:45 PM »

First concrete signs of a PD-M5S rapprochement materialized today, as the two parties joined forces in parliament to impose a slower pace to the agenda of the no-confidence vote. Lega wanted the vote as early as tomorrow, but the makeshift yellow-red majority decided it will be next week (August 20). In the meantime, Zingaretti is already moving away from his hard-no stance on an alliance with M5S, and voices are actually emerging in favor of a government to last the whole parliamentary term. I still have trouble seeing it, tbh, but the next week or so will be fascinating.


Those of us who are axiomatically incapable of conceding that it's possible for Mussulman and Hindoo immigrants ever to integrate in European countries aside, does anyone know how Italian citizens of African or Asian origin do vote? (I almost said "non-white Italian citizens" but Italian racial politics regarding North and South is...more complicated than that.) I assume mostly center-left these days, but did Berlusconi have any appeal to them back when LN and AN were mostly subordinate to liberal conservatism with Italian characteristics?

I'll admit I have no idea. I haven't seen any polling or survey data on the matter (and I have seen a LOT of strange crosstabs in Italian polls in my days). My guess is that the subsample of non-White voters in Italian politics is simply too small, owing to the compounding effect of, 1. them still being a small percentage of the population, 2. many of them not being citizens, especially given Italy's restrictive citizenship laws, 3. even those who are citizens having subpar turnout. If I did have to hazard a guess, though, yeah, I'd say the vast majority of them vote to the center-left. A few might possibly vote M5S too.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2019, 05:23:46 AM »

Nicola Zingaretti has just spoken, after a meeting of the PD leadership. PD declares itself available to a long-haul government alliance with M5S, but intends to "verify if the conditions for it are present" and is ready to go to new elections if they aren't.

So they're interested in talking with M5S, but want to sell themselves at a high price. Earlier, PD people were saying that they would require a reversal of several policies enacted by the previous government (especially in areas such as security where Salvini has been in the driver's seat for the past year). So the M5S will have to make a bit of a U-turn if they want to avoid elections.

...and just as I was typing, M5S responded with a note that "reminds everyone" that they are the largest party in parliament, implying that they're not going to grovel and sell out on everything. That seems like a standard bargaining strategy.

Next big moment will be tomorrow afternoon, when Mattarella will speak to the delegates from PD, Lega and M5S. Afterwards, he will have to decide if he give someone a mandate to form a new government, calls in more consultations, or dissolves parliament.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2019, 02:31:25 PM »

OK, so things today didn't go quite as planned.

The PD delegation met with Mattarella in the morning, and expressed their availability to form a government with M5S, but set three non-negotiable conditions: 1. the repeal of the two "security decrees", 2. a pre-government deal about the contours of the future budgetary law, and 3. the (at least temporary) shelving of the currently-debated constitutional reform that was supposed to cut the number of Italian MPs by half. These are harsh conditions, especially the third one which is a huge pill to swallow for a shamelessly #populist Purple heart movement like M5S, but given the current power dynamic between the two they seemed fairly reasonable.

Di Maio, however, clearly didn't see things that way. M5S was invited to Mattarella last (as is protocol for presidential consultations, you go from the smallest parties to the biggest) and most people were expecting them to make the same kind of overtures to the PD. Instead, Di Maio made a surreal speech where he presented a lengthy government program and basically demanded that whoever wants to govern agree to it. He didn't even mention PD. Later rumors started propping up that M5S is keeping talks open with Lega (although nothing concrete has come out in that sense).

Anyway, all this meant was that the consultations ended up in a huge, confusing flop. Mattarella was supposed to speak right after meeting the M5S delegation, but instead he took two additional hours to himself, and eventually came out to (very grudgingly) say that he was giving the parties five more days to get their sh*t together. If nothing comes out of the next round of consultations Tuesday, then he'll dissolve parliament.

M5S is playing with fire if they think they can keep sitting on the fence and acting like everything is owed to them. I don't think for a second that Salvini really wants to patch things up with Di Maio, all he's doing is lure him away from the PD to ensure that we end up having new elections. If Di Maio is dumb enough to fall for it, he can kiss his ass goodbye. Anyway, now the M5S groups have formally voted to open up negotiations with PD, but they're doing so from a position of demanding that the constitutional reform be voted as is, which I really don't think is a serious proposal. We'll see if cooler heads will prevail eventually.


Anyway, with this post I've again reached my self-imposed limit, so you won't hear from me for a while. I hope this was helpful to set the stage for whatever comes next though.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 13  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.069 seconds with 12 queries.