Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[mileslunn]

As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed.  I realize Italy is a lot different than Canada, but still seems more like the type who might sell in some Eastern European countries, but would only appeal to your typical hard right crowd west of the former iron curtain, i.e. in the teens or 20s, not high 30s.  Likewise on policies, is his flat tax popular as won't that primarily benefit the rich and I know at least in English speaking world income inequality is a major issue?  Likewise he wants to loosen gun laws and I would think with all the mass shootings that would be a tough sell?  I can see his tough line on immigration being popular, but I would assume all major parties would to varying degrees take this.  Any insights here?

[mileslunn]

As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed. 

The present Premier of Ontario is Doug Ford.

Ford is pretty loathed today and won more due to Liberals being in power too long.  By contrast Salvini has almost doubled his support in a year and he is pretty far right for a Western European leader.  In Eastern Europe different story, but in Western Europe, while many like him, they usually have a tough time cracking the 30% mark.

[mileslunn]

So in essence it is immigration why Salvini is so popular and other issues like flat tax and looser gun laws are side issues that people care less about?  I do know Italy doesn't have the same history with immigration as many other Western European countries do who have had large immigrant populations in their major cities for decades, its more a recent phenemenon unlike say UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

That being said is their any chance he would take Italy out of the Euro or call a referendum to leave the EU.  I would think after how poorly Brexit is going and with Italy even being more integrated (part of Scheghen and Euro unlike UK), leaving the EU would not have majority support.  Another side issue while largely symbolism, I noticed last time I visited Italy, almost every government building would fly the Italian and EU flags so being a strong nationalist does he still have EU flag in background when speaking like Macron and Merkel do, or like Orban does he only have national flag in background considering his general disdain of the EU.

[mileslunn]

Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.

I saw a survey on attitudes towards immigration in Europe and it generally showed countries either with few immigrants (much of Eastern Europe) or only very recently (Greece and Italy) most negative, while countries that have had immigration for years like Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and UK much less so.  When Enoch Powell made his River of Blood speech in the late 60s, over 70% of Brits agreed with it, whereas today a speech like that would only have minority support so in a lot of ways Italy with respect to immigration is in a similar boat to what UK was in 60s and 70s.  You had some pretty bad race riots then too.  Generally speaking in most countries, new waves of those who look different tend to be negatively received unfortunately, but as time passes and they become part of the community attitudes shift.

[mileslunn]

What are the policy proposals that a PD-M5S coalition could enact that would be popular, politically powerful, and which both sides would agree on? Obviously immigration policy would be swept aside. Could Zingaretti push the Renzi-ite majority in her party for M5S-friendly anti-austerity economic populism in return for a coalition she doesn't much want? Salvini is running a massively religious campaign, which is so odd in a relatively secular and rapidly secularizing country, which Italy is. Could the coalition take him on by enacting popular gay marriage and other socially liberal laws?

With five star movement strongest in South, perhaps some big infrastructure projects or spending to help economy in South could be one area.  Another interesting one, would be to fund Salvini's flat tax of 15% but raising the top tax rate, so while maybe bad economics, that is sort of a left wing populist one.  Spain recently had a big minimum wage increase so perhaps that is another one.  Likewise M5S favoured a Guaranteed annual income so PD could perhaps agree to go along with that.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Salvini will have a big egg in his face https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49502232 .

[mileslunn]

What time approximately will the results be announced?

[mileslunn]

What time approximately will the results be announced?

Voting closed at six (1 hour ago) Results are expected imminently. If the Bond yield spread is anything to go by, investors are expecting the deal to pass.

Here are the central points of the draft agreement between PD-M5S: https://www.corriere.it/politica/19_settembre_03/governo-blog-stelle-bozza-programma-m5s-pd-26-punti-a42f91e6-ce1d-11e9-95aa-93e3e08ee08a.shtml

Looks like M5S got a lot of what they wanted, lots of expensive promises in there (including freezing VAT (Sales Tax)) without saying much on how they want to finance it.

Do you have an English translation of the 26 point plan?

[mileslunn]

Is it pretty much inevitable that Salvini is going to become PM someday?  This could get very interesting and actually if he follows through on his plans, could really hurt the Eurozone and may even be a lifeline to Brexiters in UK who can point to that as why they are better off outside EU than inside due to mess.

[mileslunn]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

She may regret that as he has a huge ego and I cannot see that going over well.