Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Andrea]

Second round of local elections took place today

Votes are being counted

PD will hold Ancona. Expected after first round result
PD is (surprisingly) ahead so far in Brindisi.

5 Stars are gaining Imola from PD. They are leading also in Avellino

Lega & Co take Terni as expected
They are ahead also in Massa

Pisa and Siena are too close to call. PD may lose both of them

[Andrea]

Lega and allies have opened a lead in Pisa now. 52 to 48% when 55 out of 86 polling stations have been reported.

PD is 200 votes behind also in Siena now with 40/50 reported.

[Andrea]

On Sunday a by-election was held in the Cagliari 1 constituency after the resignation of Andrea Mura (5 Stars, then expelled for lack of attendance)

Results

Andrea Frailis (Progressives for Sardinia) 40.46% ELECTED
Luca Caschili (5 Stars) 28.92%
Daniela Noli (Northern League-Forza Italia-Brothers of Italy) 27.8%
Enrico Balletto (Casapound) 2.81%

turnout 15.54%

[Andrea]

II round of local elections in Sicily held yesterday.

M5S take Caltanisetta comfortably (58.85%). In first round the FI-UDC candidate was leading 37 to 20%.
5 Stars also win in Castelvetrano (64.47%) starting from  behind after first round.

In Gela, the candidate supported by local lists endorsed by PD and Forza Italia is elected over the candidate supported by FdI, UDC and Lega. 52.45 to 47.55%. In the first round the winner was already leading 36 to 30%.

In Mazara del Vallo the candidate supported by local lists endorsed by centre-left have beaten the Lega candidate. 52.41 to 47.59%. In first round it was 31 to 24% for local centre-left candidate.

In Monreale the candidate supported by local lists and Musumeci easily beats the rival supported by centre-left local lists. 55.73 to 44.27%. In first round it was closer (23.9 to 21.2).

[Andrea]

Looking at MEPs elected (based on preferences)

PD

North West: Pisapia (Milan former mayor) leads as expected with 266,000 votes. Tinagli did well (just over 100,000). Then Majorino (cabinet member in Milan where PD performed well) and incumbent Toia (also from Lombardia). Final seat goes to incumbent Brando Benifei (from Liguria).
Incumbents Bresso and Viotti lose their seats. For Viotti it was more or less expected given PD reduction in seats, Bresso less so as she was among the "heads of the list". This means no candidates from Piemonte is elected in PD list which is surprising as Piemonte is bigger than Liguria.  Maybe the choices of top candidates (Bresso and Morando) for Piemonte wasn't good. Long running political careers but not as dynamic anymore.

North East: Calenda gets 275,000 preferences. Newcomers Elisabetta Gualimini (vice president of  Emilia Romagna region) is second. Incumbent De Castro and former MP and MEP Moretti (Veneto) take the other 2 seats.
2 incumbents lost here (De Monte and Kyenge). Laura Puppato doesn't get in either (6th, around 4,000 votes below Moretti).

Central....this constituency is behind in the update. 2,500 polling stations not added, almost all in Rome. But Bonafè and Sassoli are re-elected. Bartolo is third. Currently MEP Nicola Danti is in 4th but Rome will be a big boost for Smeriglio and Gualtieri (incumbent) who will both pass him and fight for the last seat. Bartolo is elected also in the Islands, so he will have to choose where to pick the seat.

South: Franco Roberti leads with 148,000 votes. Then Ferrandino, Cozzolino and Picierno who edges Gentile by some hundreds. It is basically only Campania.

Islands: Pietro Bartolo and Caterina Chinnici over 100,000. Andrea Soddu (from Sardinia) is the third in case Bartolo opts for Central constituency.


Forza Italia

In NW...Berlusconi and Salini (incumbent). Laura Comi is third and her destiny depends on where Silvio will take the seat

NE..apparently no seats for FI. So Pivetti doesn't get in

Centre...Tajani for sure. De Meo is currently second but Rome is missing and Mussolini can make up some ground there but 10,000 is too much IMO.

South: Berlusconi followed by incumbent Patriciello and Martusciello.

Islands: Giuseppe Milazzo is second to Berlusconi.


5 stars

NW...top of the list Danzì doesn't make it. Incumbents Evi and Beghin are re-elected

NE..incumbent Zullo tops the poll followed by Pignedoli. Both elected

Central...incumbent Castoldo along Daniela Rondinelli should be the 2 elected. Livorno's outgoing mayor Nogarin ends third. Agea  and Tamburrano are 4-5th and lose their seats.

South..here they should take 6 seats. So Adinfoli, D'Amato, Ferrara, Piedicini are re-elected.  Chiara Gemma come first and Mario Furore takes the last seat.

Islands..Giarrusso closely followed by incumebent Corrao are elected.


Fratelli d'Italia

well, Meloni everywhere. Fitto is second in South and I suppose he will take the seat there when Meloni opts for Central (or somewhere else) (edit: well, Meloni will remain in Rome...stupid me)
Elisabetta Gardini is third in NE. So out regardless of Meloni's choices. So now she can defect to something even more on the right

[Andrea]

Mayoral elections in main cities

Firenze: Nardella (CL) 57%
Bari: De Caro (CL) 66.3%
Bergamo: Gori (CL) 55.3%
Lecce: Salvemini (CL) 50.9%
Modena: Muzzarelli (CL) 53.4%
Pesaro: Ricci (CL) 57.3%

Perugia: Romizi (CR) 59.8%
Pavia: Fracassi (CR) 53%
Pescara:  Masci (CR) 51.3%
Urbino: Gambini (CR) 55.1%
Vibo Valentia: Limbardo (CR) 59.5%



Run offs

Potenza: Guarnte (CR) 44.7% Tramutoli (local lists) 27.4%
Campobasso: D'Alessandro (CR) 39.7% Gravina (5 Stars) 29.4%
Ascoli: Fioravanti (CR) 37.4% Celani (local lists) 21.4%
Avellino: Cipriano (CL) 32.4% Festa (local lists) 28.7%
Cremona: Galimberti (CL) 46.4% Malvezzi (CR) 41.7%
Cesena: Lattuca (CL) 42,8% Rossi (CR) 33.8%
Ferrara: Fabbri (CR) 48.4% Modesini (CL) 31.8%
Foggia: Landella (CR) 46.1% Cavaliere (CL) 33.7%
Forlì: Zattini (CR) 45.8% Calderoni (CL) 37.2%
Livorno: Salvetti (CL) 34.2% Romiti (CR) 26.6%
Prato: Biffoni (CL) 47.2% Spada (CR) 35.1%
Reggio Emilia: Vecchi (CL) 49.1% Salati (CR) 28.2%
Rovigo: Gambarella (CR) 38.2% Gaffeo (Cl) 25.4%
Verbania: Albertella (CR) 45.8% Marchionini (CL) 37.5%
Vercelli: Corsaro (CR) 41.9% Forte (CL) 24.7%

[Andrea]

Apparently, following the bad result in the European election,  M5S members are having today a confidence vote on Luigi du Maio (via their online platform)

Result: 80% in favour of Di Maio

[Andrea]

Results of run offs held today

Potenza: Guarnte (CR) 44.7% Tramutoli (local lists) 27.4%

Guarnte 50.5% (with one polling station left to report)

Campobasso: D'Alessandro (CR) 39.7% Gravina (5 Stars) 29.4%

Gravina over 60% with 45 polling stations reported out of 56

Ascoli: Fioravanti (CR) 37.4% Celani (local lists) 21.4%

Fioravanti 59.31%

Cremona: Galimberti (CL) 46.4% Malvezzi (CR) 41.7%

Galimberti 55.94%

Avellino: Cipriano (CL) 32.4% Festa (ex PD) 28.7%

Festa (ex PD) 51.52%

Cesena: Lattuca (CL) 42,8% Rossi (CR) 33.8%

Lattuca 55.74%

Ferrara: Fabbri (CR) 48.4% Modesini (CL) 31.8%

Fabbri 56.77%

Foggia: Landella (CR) 46.1% Cavaliere (CL) 33.7%

Landella 53.28%

Forlì: Zattini (CR) 45.8% Calderoni (CL) 37.2%

Zattini 53.06%

Livorno: Salvetti (CL) 34.2% Romiti (CR) 26.6%

Salvetti 63.32%

Prato: Biffoni (CL) 47.2% Spada (CR) 35.1%

Biffoni 56.12%

Reggio Emilia: Vecchi (CL) 49.1% Salati (CR) 28.2%

Vecchi 63.31%

Rovigo: Gambarella (CR) 38.2% Gaffeo (Cl) 25.4%

Gaffeo 50.94%

Biella: Claudio Corradino (CR) 39.95% Dino Gentile (local lists) 27.57%

Corradino 51.11%

Vercelli: Corsaro (CR) 41.9% Forte (CL) 24.7%

Corsaro 54.8%

Verbania: Albertella (CR) 45.8% Marchionini (CL) 37.5%

Marchionini 50.62%

[Andrea]

New Cabinet

Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (M5S)
Home Affairs: Luciana Lamorgese
Justice Alfonso Bonafede (M5S)
Defense: Lorenzo Guerini (PD)
Economy and finances: Roberto Gualtieri (PD)
Ministro dello sviluppo economico: Stefano Patuanelli (M5S)
Transportsi: Paola De Micheli (PD)
Agricolture: Teresa Bellanova (PD)
Environment : Sergio Costa (M5S)
Work and Social Policies: Nunzia Catalfo (M5S)
Education: Lorenzo Fioramonti (M5S)
Culture and Tourism: Dario Franceschini (PD)
Health: Roberto Speranza (Article One aka Bersani's splinters)

Regional Affairs: Francesco Boccia (PD)
South: Giuseppe Provenzano (PD)
Equal Opportunities and Family: Elena Bonetti (PD)
Relationship with Parliament: Federico d'Incà (M5S)
Technological Innovation and Digitalization: Paola Pisano (M5S)
Public Administration: Fabiana Dadone (M5S)
European Affairs: Enzo Amendola (PD)

Secretary to the Cabinet Presidency: Riccardo Fraccaro (M5S)

Cabinet will be sworn in tomorrow at 10 am.

[Andrea]

Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)


Main towns with mayor elected on first round 2 weeks ago:

Macerata: CR 52.8% CL 32.6%. Gain from CL (incumbent term-limited)
Mantova: CL (incumbent) 70.7% CR 22.1%
Venezia: CR (incumbent)54.1% CL 29.3%
Fermo: Independent (incumbent) 71.4% CL 14.8% Lega 10.2%
Trento: CL 54.7% CR 30.2%. CL incumbent stood down
Trani: CL (incumbent) 65.4% CR 16.1%

[Andrea]

Mayoral run-offs held yesterday and today.

Results in main towns ("capoluoghi di provincia", provincial capitals)

CR=centre-right; CL=centre-left

Arezzo: CR (incumbent) 54.5% CL 46.5% HOLD
Lecco: CL 50.1% CR 49.9% HOLD by 31 votes. (10,978 vs 10,947)
Reggio Calabria: CL (incumbent) 58.4% CR 41.6%. HOLD
Matera: 5 Stars 67.3% CR 32.4% GAIN FROM INDY
Crotone: Local 64% CR 36%. GAIN
Chieti: CL 55.8% CR 44.2% GAIN
Andria: CL 58.9% M5S 41.1%. GAIN
Aosta: CL 53.3% Rinascimento 46.7%. HOLD
Bolzano: CL 57.2% CR 42.8% (SVP backed CL in the run off)

Lecco lol N U T nailbiter.
Is a recount allowed?

Chieti gain for the centre-left is really the last thing I was expecting.

SVP backing the centre-left in Bolzano is good, but why? It's a break from the last two years where they have shifted to backing the centre-right.

Disputed ballots in Lecco are 15.
Local electoral commission will have now to officially declare the results. They will go through all the "verbali" from polling stations, re-doing the additions.

I remember some places with recounts in the past. Candidates need to ask for them to TAR or Consiglio di stato. I saw some places where the recount was granted one year after the election.

[Andrea]

It went on for an extra half an hour because Ciampolillo (ex 5 Stars) and Nencini (Socialist, grouped with Italia Viva) declared to vote at the end of the second rolling call.
Speaker Casellati had to check the videorecording to understand if they asked to vote before or after she closed the voting period.

Both were admitted to vote in the end and voted "yes".

Earlier in the evening, 2 Forza Italia senators (Maria Rosaria Rossi and Andrea Causin) defected to the yes camp.

[Andrea]

The government announced. To be sworn in tomorrow at lunch time


without portfolio

Relationship with Parliament: Federico d’Inca  (5 Stars) * incumbent

Technological Innovation: Vittorio Colao (Ind)

Public administration: Renato Brunetta (Forza Italia)

Regional affairs: Maria Stella Gelmni  (Forza Italia)

South: Mara Carfagna  (Forza Italia)

Youth policies: Fabiana Dadone (5 Stars) *reshuffled from public administration ministry

Equal opportunities: Elena Bonetti (Italia Viva) * incumbent

Disabilities: Erika Stefani  (Lega)

with portfolio

Tourism: Massimo Graravaglia (Lega)

Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (5 Stars)  * incumbent

Home affairs: Luciana Lamorgese (Ind) * incumbent

Justice: Marta Cartabia  (Ind, former president of the costituional court)

Defence: Lorenzo Guerini (PD) *incumbent

Economy: Daniele Franco (Ind, director general of National Bank)

Economic Development: Giancarlo Giorgetti (Lega)

Agricolture: Stefano Patuanelli (5 Stars) * *reshuffled from economic development

Econological transition: Roberto Cingolani (Ind)

Infrastructure: Enrico Giovannini (Ind, former president of National Statistics Institute and former minister under Letta)

Work: Andrea Orlando (PD)

Education: Patrizio Bianchi (Ind)

Research and University: Cristina Messa (Ind)

Culture: Dario Franceschini (PD) * incumbent

Health: Roberto Speranza (Free and Equal) * incumbent

[Andrea]

After Brunetta, Gelmini and Carfagna (read one of the other at the beginning), I thought we were back  to 2005

[Andrea]

It's starting to look like the exit polls were seriously off.

Where is the news? :-)
 
The early projections for Rome are different between La7 and Mediaset at the moment. Mediaset have Michetti 29 Gualtieri 26 Raggi 20

[Andrea]

191 polling stations out of 292

Siena parliamentary by-election

Letta 49.34%
Centre-right 39.36%

[Andrea]

I had a typo. it is 191 out of 292 polling stations for Siena by-election.

[Andrea]

Tuscany #12 (Siena and some bits of Arezzo province) parliamentary by-election

Final result

Enrico Letta 49.92%
Lega+Brothers of Italia+Forza Italia - UDC 37.83%
Communist Party (fielding former MP and former MEP Marco Rizzo) 4.69%
Power to the People 2.95%
National Italian Movement 1.48%
Italexit 1.73%
3V (No Vax) 1.4%

Turnout 35.6%

[Andrea]

The good people of Morterone have spoken

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/comunali/scrutini/20211003/scrutiniGI030980550

3 Cllrs for the Gay Party after polling 42% (which means 9 votes).

None of the elected Cllrs (of both lists) live there. The winning list was apparently registered some minutes after the actual deadline because "the electoral office was in Ballabio and it takes some time to reach it as it was not advertised that the clarks at Morterone would have not accepted the nominations there".

A legal challenge will follow.

[Andrea]

Exit polls for Rai


Rome

Gualtieri (centre-left) 59-63%
Michetti (centre-right) 37-41%

Turin
Lo Russo (centre-left) 56-60%
Damilano (centre-right) 40-44%



Trieste

Dipiazza (centre-right) 48-52%
Russo (centre-left) 48-52%

[Andrea]

250 polling stations out of 919 in Turin reported

Lo Russo is at 59%

http://www.comune.torino.it

[Andrea]

Counting half way in Varese (42 polling stations out of 85)

PD incumbent Galimberti leading 53 to 47%

[Andrea]

Projection for Trieste indicates Dipiazza will hold on 51 to 49%.

Varese looks like a PD hold. 61 out of 82 reported and it is 53.4% for Galimberti.

Cosenza and Spezia looks like centre-left wins after over 1/3 counted.

Mastella towards re-election in Benevento.

[Andrea]

I meant Savona, not Spezia in my earlier post.

Anyway, Savona and Cosenza to centre-left. Currently polling 62% and 58% with 2/3 of the count completed.

Caserta looks very close half-way.

[Andrea]

Cosenza have finished counting


Francesco Caruso (centre-left) 57,81
Francesco Caruso (centre-right) 42,19   

Yes, they have the same name.