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| | |-+  The candidate who spent more days leading the polls used to win
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Author Topic: The candidate who spent more days leading the polls used to win  (Read 323 times)
buritobr
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« on: June 18, 2018, 09:16:34 pm »

There were few exceptions, like 1948, 1980 and 2016.

But usually, the candidate who leads the polls for more time wins. This is obvious for landslides like the ones in 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984.
But even in close races, the candidate who spent more days leading the polls used to win. In 1968, Nixon was ahead in the polls during all the campaign days. In 1976, Carter led the polls during almost all the campaign. Since 1998, there were polls about Bush vs Gore in 2000. Polls showed Bush leading during almost all the period between 1998 and November 2000. Only in the days following the Democratic National Convention, Gore was better than Bush in the polls. In 2004, Kerry led the polls during few days in the summer, but Bush was ahead during most of the time in the campaign. In 2012, Romney did better in the polls only few days after the first debate.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2018, 06:43:50 pm »

Even in 1980 , Reagan led most of the polls after June



It was just before June when Carter led in the vast majority of them
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2018, 08:14:41 pm »

Well one reason why the exceptions happen is clearly because we don't have a national election. We have 56 individual elections.
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buritobr
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2018, 05:16:27 pm »

Even in 1980 , Reagan led most of the polls after June



It was just before June when Carter led in the vast majority of them

After June, Reagan led some polls and Carter led other polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2018, 04:36:13 pm »

Even in 1980 , Reagan led most of the polls after June



It was just before June when Carter led in the vast majority of them

After June, Reagan led some polls and Carter led other polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections


This is the average polling though

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