MT Senate-Gravis: Tester+7, Over 50
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  MT Senate-Gravis: Tester+7, Over 50		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: MT Senate-Gravis: Tester+7, Over 50  (Read 2451 times)
Dr. Arch
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« on: June 19, 2018, 08:20:56 AM »
Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

Tester (D): 51
Rosendale (R): 44

469 LV; June 11-13
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2018, 08:22:59 AM »
Well, at least we have something now. Even if it's Gravis.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2018, 08:24:26 AM »
G r a v i s  t h o u g h
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2018, 08:28:30 AM »
It's Gravis Sad
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2018, 08:30:50 AM »

It’s Gravis.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2018, 08:43:45 AM »

The LV screen might be why Tester is up by such a good number.

Pretty good Tester approval: 54-42

A lot of the issues are pretty good for Democrats/Liberals too:

Oppose the tax bill: 38-34
Oppose banning abortion: 55-28
Oppose 20 week abortion ban: 45-37
Support a LGBTQ anti-discrimination law: 46-24
Oppose Trump's tariffs: 45-40
Support the Iran Deal: 40-39
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2018, 08:46:12 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 19, 2018, 08:43:45 AM

The LV screen might be why Tester is up by such a good number.

Pretty good Tester approval: 54-42

A lot of the issues are pretty good for Democrats/Liberals too:

Oppose the tax bill: 38-34
Oppose banning abortion: 55-28
Oppose 20 week abortion ban: 45-37
Support a LGBTQ anti-discrimination law: 46-24
Oppose Trump's tariffs: 45-40
Support the Iran Deal: 40-39

Montana is still relatively socially liberal. Kind of like Wyoming 10 years ago or Colorado 20 years ago.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2018, 08:54:15 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 19, 2018, 08:43:45 AM

The LV screen might be why Tester is up by such a good number.

Pretty good Tester approval: 54-42

A lot of the issues are pretty good for Democrats/Liberals too:

Oppose the tax bill: 38-34
Oppose banning abortion: 55-28
Oppose 20 week abortion ban: 45-37
Support a LGBTQ anti-discrimination law: 46-24
Oppose Trump's tariffs: 45-40
Support the Iran Deal: 40-39

Actually tariffs are being supported 45-40, which is quite surprising imo.
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Politician
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2018, 09:00:41 AM »
When Gravis showed Braun +1, you morons concluded Donnelly is DOA.
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Predictor
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« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2018, 09:15:56 AM »
Gravis though.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2018, 09:22:35 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on June 18, 2018, 02:47:23 AM
Gravis is also working on a Montana poll right now. Any guesses? My prediction: Tester +7

This part of my prediction was pretty good. But yeah, obviously no poll would have been better than this one. Why even poll the race anyway? The experts are never wrong, Rosendale is the worst candidate ever, and MT (#populists<3<3) isn’t ND. Smiley Smiley Titanium Tester.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2018, 09:32:12 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on June 19, 2018, 09:22:35 AM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on June 18, 2018, 02:47:23 AM
Gravis is also working on a Montana poll right now. Any guesses? My prediction: Tester +7

This part of my prediction was pretty good. But yeah, obviously no poll would have been better than this one. Why even poll the race anyway? The experts are never wrong, Rosendale is the worst candidate ever, and MT (#populists<3<3) isn’t ND. Smiley Smiley Titanium Tester.


Accolades
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mds32
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2018, 10:07:46 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 19, 2018, 08:43:45 AM

The LV screen might be why Tester is up by such a good number.

Pretty good Tester approval: 54-42

A lot of the issues are pretty good for Democrats/Liberals too:

Oppose the tax bill: 38-34
Oppose banning abortion: 55-28
Oppose 20 week abortion ban: 45-37
Support a LGBTQ anti-discrimination law: 46-24
Oppose Trump's tariffs: 45-40
Support the Iran Deal: 40-39

They actually support the tariffs 45-40
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2018, 10:10:50 AM »
Quote from: mds32 on June 19, 2018, 10:07:46 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 19, 2018, 08:43:45 AM

The LV screen might be why Tester is up by such a good number.

Pretty good Tester approval: 54-42

A lot of the issues are pretty good for Democrats/Liberals too:

Oppose the tax bill: 38-34
Oppose banning abortion: 55-28
Oppose 20 week abortion ban: 45-37
Support a LGBTQ anti-discrimination law: 46-24
Oppose Trump's tariffs: 45-40
Support the Iran Deal: 40-39

They actually support the tariffs 45-40

Read that wrong (who puts the oppose first?), will fix.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2018, 10:44:14 AM »
Looks like you can't pester the Tester. Freedom poll, even if of questionable quality...
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2018, 11:01:46 AM »
Yep, Titanium Tester is 100% safe, just like Cruz, since he's up by a point more. Smiley

I followed the formula correctly, right? From what I recall it's...

Gravis poll I don't like = LOLGravis, Junk

Gravis poll I like = Yes! I knew (insert candidate here) was safe/DOA all along!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2018, 01:38:48 PM »
Very tight, but Tester should sneak by, Tilt D.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2018, 02:02:10 PM »

But this is true:

Quote from: Bagel23 on June 19, 2018, 01:38:48 PM
Very tight, but Tester should sneak by, Tilt D.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2018, 08:19:00 PM »
About what I'd expect. Clearly safer than Menendez.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2018, 03:20:56 PM »
Oh yeah, remember when Tester insulting Dr. Whatshisname sealed his fate?

LOL at that #analysis. What a SHOCK, Americans forgot in a week and/or never cared to begin with!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2018, 03:45:27 PM »
ItÄs Gravis, but this race is Lean Democratic. Tester is more safe than Heitkamp, Donelly and McCaskill.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2018, 01:56:57 PM »
>Gravis
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2018, 05:30:17 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on June 20, 2018, 03:20:56 PM
Oh yeah, remember when Tester insulting Dr. Whatshisname sealed his fate?

LOL at that #analysis. What a SHOCK, Americans forgot in a week and/or never cared to begin with!
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2018, 11:14:02 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on June 20, 2018, 03:20:56 PM
Oh yeah, remember when Tester insulting Dr. Whatshisname sealed his fate?

LOL at that #analysis. What a SHOCK, Americans forgot in a week and/or never cared to begin with!
Heck why should they remember when Tester was right about the guy?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2018, 01:55:36 AM »
Yup, this race is lean D. Tester won't win by 8 points, but 5% is within reach.
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