WV-Monmouth: Manchin +9, Ojeda leads in WV-3

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

This is the same poor analysis that led you to conclude that Valadao’s district was Lean D right after he got 63% of the primary vote with 45% of the electorate being Democrats less than 3 weeks ago.

Your entire worldview and predictions revolve solely around who voted for Trump and who didn’t.

Valadao getting 63% of the primary vote is no guarantee that he will win re-election. It's still a Clinton district and if the wave is really high he could easily get wiped out.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

So you'd rather Carol Miller win? A congresswoman who will also not support Pelosi for Speaker (nor any other Democrat for Speaker, as Ojeda probably would for Tim Ryan or someone of that sort) and also vote the GOP party line on policies.

If I lived in the District, I would probably just vote for whoever the Mountain Party nominates.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, shocker. I totally expected West Virginia voters to reject Senadah Manchin's shtick and support Carol Miller when the alternative is Richard Ojeda. Not seeing how a Tossup rating is justified here at this point or how this is more competitive than MT.

McKinley and Mooney have big leads, btw.

[Canis]

Both Races are Lean D in my book

[Xing]

If these numbers hold up, I wonder how much Republicans will actually invest in this race.

[DrScholl]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

This is the same poor analysis that led you to conclude that Valadao’s district was Lean D right after he got 63% of the primary vote with 45% of the electorate being Democrats less than 3 weeks ago.

Your entire worldview and predictions revolve solely around who voted for Trump and who didn’t.

Valadao getting 63% of the primary vote is no guarantee that he will win re-election. It's still a Clinton district and if the wave is really high he could easily get wiped out.

Everyone wants to stay so stuck up these "moderate Republicans" butts that they can't see the possibility of them actually losing. It's a heavily Hispanic district that Clinton won so clearly it is on the table in this environment.

[Gone to Carolina]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

So you'd rather Carol Miller win? A congresswoman who will also not support Pelosi for Speaker (nor any other Democrat for Speaker, as Ojeda probably would for Tim Ryan or someone of that sort) and also vote the GOP party line on policies.

If I lived in the District, I would probably just vote for whoever the Mountain Party nominates.

I doubt anyone from the Mountain Party'll file before August 1st considering they've never run anyone in WV-3 before, especially when the Democratic nominee is one of the most progressive WV Democratic officeholders.

Anyways I would say Lean D is a fair rating for WV-Sen and Tossup for WV-3. Also potentially Likely R for WV-2, given Mooney's weak performances in the past. Though if I were to hazard a guess he wins by something close to his 2016 margin, buoyed by Morrisey's strong homefield advantage in the eastern panhandle.

[redjohn]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

[IceSpear]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

How often did Republicans nominate candidates in 2010 who voted for Obama, even though Obama won by a far bigger margin than Trump did? And actually, you know, got more votes than his opponent did.

[Maxwell]

lol democrats are okay with Harley Rouda being a literal Kasich donor but not Ojeda voting for Trump.

Listen folks - we have to accept some people acknowledging mistakes they made. Ojeda has on just about every issue signaled himself as a decent progressive. This is a 68% Trump state, and Ojeda is running in a 72% Trump district. In these areas you're going to have to make at least SOME sacrificies (like Manchin voting with the Trump administration some 30-40% of the time or shooting a cap and trade bill yee haw).

That's also why, despite how much i loathe Joe Manchin, I would never vote for the GOP or not vote if it meant Manchin lost his seat. I've had to make a few ugly votes for Democrats in Oklahoma because I'd rather be represented by someone who votes like 30-40% Republican over someone who votes 100% Republican.

[Maxwell]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

How often did Republicans nominate candidates in 2010 who voted for Obama, even though Obama won by a far bigger margin than Trump did? And actually, you know, got more votes than his opponent did.

i mean this isn't exactly one for one but Scott Rigell donated campaign cash to Barack Obama in 2008. He was a bit of an oddball in the GOP caucus but he does exist.

[ON Progressive]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

How often did Republicans nominate candidates in 2010 who voted for Obama, even though Obama won by a far bigger margin than Trump did? And actually, you know, got more votes than his opponent did.

How many Republicans were running in a mirror image WV-03 (i.e. Obama +50 CD with a huge R registration advantage)?

I know you love to absolutely trash WV for some extremely odd reason, but Ojeda voting for Trump is absolutely not a black mark, considering he regrets his vote and has gotten progressive policy like medical cannibis legalization passed in a Republican controlled state legislature.

[YE]

lol democrats are okay with Harley Rouda being a literal Kasich donor but not Ojeda voting for Trump.

Lol, I got sh**t for sh**tting on Rouda a while back on here and the same argument came up.

[IceSpear]

lol democrats are okay with Harley Rouda being a literal Kasich donor but not Ojeda voting for Trump.

Uh, yes? Trump is (rightfully) seen as far more toxic among the vast majority of Democrats than Kasich is for obvious reasons, other than the #populists<3 here who prefer Trump because he's anti establishment <3333333. One voted for the Democratic nominee, the other did not. It's really no comparison. In addition, last time I checked, Kasich is not shoving brown kids into dog kennels, attempting to rip Medicaid from the hands of millions (so #populist ), etc. Oh, and of course one is the president destroying the country and the other is governor of Ohio. Need I go on?

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

How often did Republicans nominate candidates in 2010 who voted for Obama, even though Obama won by a far bigger margin than Trump did? And actually, you know, got more votes than his opponent did.

How many Republicans were running in a mirror image WV-03 (i.e. Obama +50 CD with a huge R registration advantage)?

I doubt a single Republican nominee in 2010 voted for Obama even if their district was Obama +80. And if they did, there's no way in hell they would've gotten an iota of support from their party. Running in Obama districts didn't stop far right nuts like Joe Walsh and Allen West from winning, btw.

[YE]

The circumstances that led to Obama getting elected (mostly due to war and recession) and Trump's election were entirely different. Trump's election sharpened the rural-urban divide in a way unseen before (or ever again most likely) had far more appeal to rural former Democrats largely due to his fake populism than Obama ever truly did to a group of Republicans.

[Former Kentuckian]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

So you'd rather Carol Miller win? A congresswoman who will also not support Pelosi for Speaker (nor any other Democrat for Speaker, as Ojeda probably would for Tim Ryan or someone of that sort) and also vote the GOP party line on policies.

If I lived in the District, I would probably just vote for whoever the Mountain Party nominates.

I'm glad you don't live in the district. Having a Democratic majority is more important to me than Pelosi's job title

[Virginiá]

If I really had to rate the two, a vote (or donation) for Kasich is muchhhhh easier to swallow than a vote for Trump, and this really goes beyond policy concerns and is more based around how utterly depraved, corrupt and evil Trump is.

But I'm not going to pretend like Kasich is acceptable policy-wise or anything. He's simply a nicer conservative. That he expanded Medicaid really doesn't do it for me. That was essentially a freebee from the federal government that any Governor would be a moron not to take as it is paid for in part by the tax dollars of people in that state. That we have had so many Republican Governors deny it to their citizens purely as a middle finger to Obama just shows how cruel and partisan they are.

Kasich shouldn't get bonus points for pushing other bad policy with a smile on, and at the end of the day, this entire debate just goes to show how much the overton window has shifted in favor of conservatives. They keep moving further right and turning into bigger assholes, and we keep on having to reevaluate everyone based on those metrics.

[redjohn]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

How often did Republicans nominate candidates in 2010 who voted for Obama, even though Obama won by a far bigger margin than Trump did? And actually, you know, got more votes than his opponent did.

Great, let's do exactly what Republicans did in 2010 because it worked then.

[Progressive Pessimist]

West Virginia might just redeem itself as much as it possibly could if both of them win, and by these margins (or better) too. I won't expect much more from the state after this though. There is nowhere to go but down if this transpires.

[IceSpear]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

Ridiculous. Throwing out candidates because they voted for Trump is not the way to win back people we need if we're ever going to branch beyond urban areas in the north.

How often did Republicans nominate candidates in 2010 who voted for Obama, even though Obama won by a far bigger margin than Trump did? And actually, you know, got more votes than his opponent did.

Great, let's do exactly what Republicans did in 2010 because it worked then.

Uh...is this sarcasm? They picked up 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats, and 6 Governor seats, so yes, it worked out pretty damn well for them.

[BBD]

I personally didn’t care one bit that Harley Rouda was a former Republican and Kasich supporter. He’s running for the US House; his main function is to vote on anything Pelosi and the Dem leadership shoves on his desk. This applies to Ojeda as well. Perhaps if they were running for a higher position of power this might be an issue but otherwise it doesn’t matter.

This, unfortunately, is part of what's led to the degradation of our political system. Congressmen should actually be trying to represent their constituents well, not kowtowing to the party leadership. I have a gut feeling that the Dem majority in the House is going to be narrow enough that Pelosi's going to end up either not running for Speaker again or losing, if her ego decides to go through with it. And that's for the better.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Do all of you know Ojeda voted for Trump?

Yes, and this is why I want him to fail.

Furthermore, the fact that Ojeda, one of the Democrats running for the House pledging not to support Pelosi for Speaker, supported Trump, contributes to me distrusting every Democrat who pledges not to support Pelosi for Speaker in general.

So you'd rather Carol Miller win? A congresswoman who will also not support Pelosi for Speaker (nor any other Democrat for Speaker, as Ojeda probably would for Tim Ryan or someone of that sort) and also vote the GOP party line on policies.

If I lived in the District, I would probably just vote for whoever the Mountain Party nominates.

I'm glad you don't live in the district. Having a Democratic majority is more important to me than Pelosi's job title

I actually do not care much about that. However, having someone who literally voted for Trump among a group of people who have made a specific pledge is not good company.

[mencken]

Funny how Cook and Sabato just change their ratings to reflect the poll.

[Senator Cris]

Lean/Likely D.

[TheSaint250]

Funny how Cook and Sabato just change their ratings to reflect the poll.

Not really funny at all if you think about it. It took them til this week to move VA-10 to Lean D even though it should’ve been clear since the 2017 elections that Comstock is a dead woman walking

It's always going to be about the ratings with the two of them (and others). No doubt many readers would like to read about 30+ tossups rather than only a few with control of any House decided.