WI-Marquette: Evers ahead in the primary, Walker (R) leads GE by 4
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  WI-Marquette: Evers ahead in the primary, Walker (R) leads GE by 4
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Evers ahead in the primary, Walker (R) leads GE by 4  (Read 4380 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #25 on: June 20, 2018, 01:04:35 PM »

More interesting than anything else is further proof that conventions mean squat with Kelda Roys wallowing with less than 5%
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #26 on: June 20, 2018, 01:11:43 PM »

"Appears to be Likely R!"

-RCP, Cook, Sabato
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: June 20, 2018, 01:13:30 PM »

Likely R, really?
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Skye
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« Reply #28 on: June 20, 2018, 01:16:03 PM »

I don't get why people on this forum act like Walker is DOA. He's a though man to beat, and Wisconsin is super polarized. I'm not saying he's safe, but he's not doomed either, Jesus.

The state that went from Kerry +0.25 to  Obama + 14 to Obama + 7 to Trump +1 is super polarized? Also the state that has had a bunch of wild swings in special elections.

I don't think that word means what you think it means

Walker's saving grace is that Evers seems pretty lame

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democratic-republican-voters-worlds-apart-in-divided-wisconsin-b99249564z1-255883361.html/

Walker has won with very similar margins in the past. Even if he loses, it's probably not going to be by that much.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #29 on: June 20, 2018, 01:17:08 PM »

I'll be honest, I couldnt care less if Walker wins as long as Baldwin is safe. And so far, Baldwin is pretty damn safe.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #30 on: June 20, 2018, 01:17:22 PM »

I don't get why people on this forum act like Walker is DOA. He's a though man to beat, and Wisconsin is super polarized. I'm not saying he's safe, but he's not doomed either, Jesus.

The state that went from Kerry +0.25 to  Obama + 14 to Obama + 7 to Trump +1 is super polarized? Also the state that has had a bunch of wild swings in special elections.

I don't think that word means what you think it means

Walker's saving grace is that Evers seems pretty lame

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democratic-republican-voters-worlds-apart-in-divided-wisconsin-b99249564z1-255883361.html/

Walker has won with very similar margins in the past. Even if he loses, it's probably not going to be by that much.

Ok but the actual electorate is super elastic given how hugely the state swings every election

like.. this state is easily top 15 most swingy states based on election results. lots of walker 2012 voters said they would vote for obama in 2012
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: June 20, 2018, 01:25:29 PM »

Yes, in 2012, Tammy Baldwin was on the ballot as well, as in 2018, and Democrats have a chance of unseating Walker. And the recall, made alot of voters upset with Barrett, and the Democrats, giving Walker another term in 2014.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #32 on: June 20, 2018, 01:45:07 PM »

The amount of hacks here is ridiculous, Walker is neither finished nor is it safe R, peak Atlas, moronic...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: June 20, 2018, 02:26:41 PM »

LOL at the amount of Walker/Baldwin voters.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #34 on: June 20, 2018, 02:27:19 PM »

"Appears to be Likely R!"

-RCP, Cook, Sabato
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #35 on: June 20, 2018, 02:28:57 PM »

The amount of hacks here is ridiculous, Walker is neither finished nor is it safe R, peak Atlas, moronic...

This race obviously remains Safe D; Walker is more vulnerable than Rauner because I don't like him.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #36 on: June 20, 2018, 02:36:56 PM »

The crossover here is fascinating. I really want to meet some of these Baldwin/Walker people, they would be interesting people to sit down and have a conversation with. But proves once again Walker has some kind of support that Dems can't seem to crack, its like 5-8% but that group has stuck with him all along. But I'm sure people here will be predicting his defeat until election day because they'll believe PPP more than Marquette.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: June 20, 2018, 02:42:07 PM »

A spread of 5-9 points isn't safe for any incumbent.  Especially, in a state like WI. And results in local elections with the state senate and State Crts, give rise to Democratic voters.  Tony Evers is a fresh face, and isn't a wide known politican, but after Labor Day, the race will significantly change.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: June 20, 2018, 02:48:06 PM »

The crossover here is fascinating. I really want to meet some of these Baldwin/Walker people, they would be interesting people to sit down and have a conversation with. But proves once again Walker has some kind of support that Dems can't seem to crack, its like 5-8% but that group has stuck with him all along. But I'm sure people here will be predicting his defeat until election day because they'll believe PPP more than Marquette.

The crosstabs have Badwin overperforming Evers by about 16 points in the eastern part of the state (Milwaukee, remainder of the Milwaukee Metro, and the Green Bay Metro) compared to only 8 points in the western part of the state (Madison Metro and the rest of the state).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #39 on: June 20, 2018, 02:49:15 PM »

A spread of 5-9 points isn't safe for any incumbent.  Especially, in a state like WI. And results in local elections with the state senate and State Crts, give rise to Democratic voters.  Tony Evers is a fresh face, and isn't a wide known politican, but after Labor Day, the race will significantly change.



Yeah, that's your fresh face for sure Grin
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #40 on: June 20, 2018, 02:51:50 PM »

The crossover here is fascinating. I really want to meet some of these Baldwin/Walker people, they would be interesting people to sit down and have a conversation with. But proves once again Walker has some kind of support that Dems can't seem to crack, its like 5-8% but that group has stuck with him all along. But I'm sure people here will be predicting his defeat until election day because they'll believe PPP more than Marquette.

The crosstabs have Badwin overperforming Evers by about 16 points in the eastern part of the state (Milwaukee, remainder of the Milwaukee Metro, and the Green Bay Metro) compared to only 8 points in the western part of the state (Madison Metro and the rest of the state).


That's bizarre, that's usually the most predictable and stubborn part of the state, I would think rural Wisconsin would be where most of the Walker/Baldwin voters are. Beats me.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2018, 02:54:06 PM »

Well, Ron Johnson, wasn't a fresh face, and he was reelected. The Evers and Ron Johnson look similar. Anyways, Milwaukee voters are key to winning this race.
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uti2
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« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2018, 03:05:57 PM »

The crossover here is fascinating. I really want to meet some of these Baldwin/Walker people, they would be interesting people to sit down and have a conversation with. But proves once again Walker has some kind of support that Dems can't seem to crack, its like 5-8% but that group has stuck with him all along. But I'm sure people here will be predicting his defeat until election day because they'll believe PPP more than Marquette.

The crosstabs have Badwin overperforming Evers by about 16 points in the eastern part of the state (Milwaukee, remainder of the Milwaukee Metro, and the Green Bay Metro) compared to only 8 points in the western part of the state (Madison Metro and the rest of the state).


That's bizarre, that's usually the most predictable and stubborn part of the state, I would think rural Wisconsin would be where most of the Walker/Baldwin voters are. Beats me.

Why not throw this out there?

Fickle-minded Independent-Leaning Suburban Women that vote on an emotional level.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #43 on: June 20, 2018, 03:42:31 PM »

This race obviously remains Safe D; Walker is more vulnerable than Rauner because I don't like him.

lol. I mean, obviously Walker could still lose, but he’s definitely not DOA. Tossup, I’d say.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #44 on: June 20, 2018, 03:47:50 PM »

A spread of 5-9 points isn't safe for any incumbent.  Especially, in a state like WI. And results in local elections with the state senate and State Crts, give rise to Democratic voters.  Tony Evers is a fresh face, and isn't a wide known politican, but after Labor Day, the race will significantly change.



Yeah, that's your fresh face for sure Grin

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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #45 on: June 20, 2018, 03:54:24 PM »

Deplorable state.
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Xing
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« Reply #46 on: June 20, 2018, 03:54:30 PM »

One poll showing Walker up 4, one showing him down 4... sounds like a Toss-Up to me. He's obviously not DOA, but calling this race Lean/Likely R is a stretch. If Baldwin were up 4 and down 4 in one poll, the "experts" wouldn't hesitate to move the race to Toss-Up.
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Devils30
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« Reply #47 on: June 20, 2018, 04:00:28 PM »

Evers has 39% name recognition. These things break in the final 2 months. Could be very close
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #48 on: June 20, 2018, 04:04:52 PM »

Governor elections don't correspond to Presidential races, although I called this race for Dems many times, Walker seems Maverick enough to win along with Baldwin. Whil DeWine loses😀
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« Reply #49 on: June 20, 2018, 04:06:27 PM »

How is it deplorable in any way, half of people there would not vote for Walker...
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