Unlikely to happen. I think voters will be fed up by Trump in 2020 and vote him out unless the Democratic candidate is complete joke (however, it's unlikely there will be someone with the baggage of Hillary). For these reasons:
I consider you a quality poster, so I think I owe you a quality rebuttal. I'll do my best.
- Trump's 2016 path was already very narrow and he's not likely to pick up much support, but lose at least a bit due to demographic changes allone. The Democrats still hold an advantage in the electoral college. All they need to do is winning back the three Rust Belt States or one or two of them in addition to Florida (I think Puerto Rico immigration may have an impact here). I don't see Trump picking up any Hillary 2016 states either. Even if he wins, he wins by less than in 2016.
I think it is too early to tell what the Puerto Ricans are going to do here in Florida. I really haven't felt their presence at all, though they mostly have concentrated in the I-4 corrider. Time will tell. You aren't objectively wrong that his path to victory may shrink in some states (particularly WI, PA) due to suburban women moving away, but I think the good economy will keep them on board as EG stated.
- While there may not be a recession, Trump's stupid trade war will cost jobs, especially in the regions he's popular (farmers for example).
A lot of these people voted for him because of the tariffs; there is a psychological factor here at play that I've never witnessed before and probably never will again - that is that Trump is "Teflon Don." All he needs to do are a few mega-rallies (maybe fly in Sarah Palin and Christie and some other popular cheerleaders to help with the circus atmosphere that is a Trump rally) in these states to pump up his base and they'll turn out.
Trump voters are way more intelligent than given credit for (not by you, but by other red avatars certainly), and are very tactical minded. Look at the G7 for example, where Trump said "how about we just have no tariffs at all then." He basically called the other western leaders bluff and made them reveal that they had no good cards in their hand. A lot of Trump voters I've talked to since then - in and out of my family, many of whom are borderline apolitical now due to the media - all thought that was brilliant. They understand the complexities and I think the good nature of the economy will offset anger over lost jobs.
- His approval is not very likely to move up (Obama was always more popular during his term).
Trump and Obama are not comparable, and that is a strategic mistake that I think the Democrats are making bigly. Trump doesn't need a high approval rating to win reelection. You can disapprove of him and still vote for him, as we saw happen in massive numbers in 2016, if a) the candidate is weak or hilariously bad like Hillary, or b) the economy remains strong.
People like my dad, for example, would normally be inclined to vote against Trump a second time. My mom also complains often about Trump's antics. But my dad is prospering at his business more than ever right now, and my mom has developed an extreme hatred of the Parkland kids and has become a gun-nut out of nowhere for some reason (despite her refusal to actually touch a gun on the rare occasions when her younger brother is around - he packs heat now too).
So between the rapidly worsening cultural war, and the good economy, Trump should have the ability to basically SwiftBoat his rival, unless the said rival is Bernie.
- Let alone the countless scandals that are currently happening and the potential bombshells to come out.
Nobody can even keep up anymore. The Democrats oversaturated their best asset. Remember when Stormy Daniels was a thing?
- Democrats will be more excited and turn out more they did in 2016, when everyone assumed Trump can't win the election.
What isn't being reported is that Republicans are even more fervently ready to turn out, as the entire Trump Presidency has played out with a siege mentality in his voters mind. And rightfully so, as the Mueller plot continue to slowly fracture.
I'm also a little tired of the phrase "Democrats have nobody who excites and therefore a poised to lose". Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as well as Bernie to some degree came out of nowhere or were unknown nationally and did pretty well. So I'm not buying this stuff.
Of course, Trump can get reelected, but it's ridiculous to say Democrats are DOA. At the moment, Trump is far more likely to lose than to win.
No, Democrats aren't necessarily DOA, but they haven't demonstrated anything to show they've learned from their 2016 mistakes.
