AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

Yup. Likely R.

Scott Brown lost fairly narrowly in a decently democratic year.

[MycroftCZ]

Jones' approvals are pretty high and are he can keep his moderate voting record, he definitely has a chance at reelection. Though, Jones could easily be turned into a Pryor and seem to have the upper hand early on, only to lose badly to a young Congressman/woman.

[Skye]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

Yup. Likely R.

Scott Brown lost fairly narrowly in a decently democratic year.

He lost while Obama carried Massachusetts by 23 points, somewhat akin to what we could expect in regards to Trump with Alabama.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

Yup. Likely R.

Scott Brown lost fairly narrowly in a decently democratic year.

He lost while Obama carried Massachusetts by 23 points, somewhat akin to what we could expect in regards to Trump with Alabama.

Yes, but Obama won by 4 nationwide. If Trump was winning by the same margin, Jones would probably lose. Trump isn't going to do nearly that well, however.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

Yup. Likely R.

Scott Brown lost fairly narrowly in a decently democratic year.

He lost while Obama carried Massachusetts by 23 points, somewhat akin to what we could expect in regards to Trump with Alabama.

Yes, but Obama won by 4 nationwide. If Trump was winning by the same margin, Jones would probably lose. Trump isn't going to do nearly that well, however.

Trump won Alabama by 28 points while losing nationwide by 2. That’s a higher hill to climb than Scott Brown had.

This race is Safe R barring Republicans nominating another child molester or Grand Wizard (which we shouldn’t put past them). And for everyone citing “muh approvals”, Scott Brown had a 60% approval rating and still lost by 8 points lol

When Jones won his race was the only thing on the ballot so hard R’s turned off by Moore could stay home. Jones is not going to overcome being on the ballot with the President and a slew of other races. He’s not going to win. Honestly if Moore had handled his scandal with just a smidgen more tact he probably would have won. Jones is toast.

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt R

[Gass3268]

Jones will in all likelihood lose, but if a Democrat wins in 2020 he should be a top contender for AG.

[PragmaticPopulist]

My best assessment this far out would be Leans R. His style feels like the kind of Good Ole' Boy Southern Democrat 40 years ago who would win reelection, but a lot of those voters have either died out or switched parties. I think he has a fighting chance, but it's gonna be uphill.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Jones is a lot more popular than I expected he would be. I think he's doing a hell of a job. Though running in 2020 will be more difficult than the 2017 special election. I would say probably strong lean R because of the amount of people who just vote straight R, particularly in a presidential year.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R to likely R. It's still AL, but I wouldn't write Jones off. He's a popular incumbent and good campaigner. Whether that will be enough to retain his seat in a deep red states is another question though. If he loses, I hope he'll end up as AG under a Dem prez. He would be a good VP for Kamala Harris, too.

[here2view]

Likely R but he has done a spectacular job since January. The fact that he won by only 1.7% over a pedophile is disheartening. i wouldn't rule him out completely for 2020 because he's done an excellent job but I equate this to Scott Brown in 2012.

[Mycool]

This far out, it’s hard to see this race as anything but Leans R. Jones is popular in a red state, and we’ve seen candidates in recent history carve out a unique brand to overperform the top of the ticket in impressive ways. That being said, Alabama is VERY conservative and Jones has possibly the smallest needle to thread on the map in 2020.

[Caprice]

Lean R. We'll see in two years.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Jones loses, I hope it is to Perry O. Hooper Jr.

[Ye We Can]

The Scott Brown comparisons are valid but I think it depends on the candidate as many pointed out. Brown made mistakes in his campaign and kept it close, and Warren was a great Senate candidate (for Massachusetts)

[morgieb]

The Scott Brown comparisons are valid but I think it depends on the candidate as many pointed out. Brown made mistakes in his campaign and kept it close, and Warren was a great Senate candidate (for Massachusetts)

Yeah I think Brown probably could've beaten a weaker Democrat, I'm not so sure a Warren equivalent exists in Alabama.

That said, Massachusetts strikes me as significantly more elastic than Alabama. And while Martha Coakley is an awful candidate, she's not quite a pedophile either.....

[Ohioguy29]

I voted likely R, though it's hard to predict this far out. This isn't discounting Jones at all; making Alabama anything other than safe R is amazing.

[Nichlemn]

Joseph Cao in LA-02 is another parallel. Despite his district's D+28 lean, he was actually leading in early polling, and even 538's model made him a favourite for re-election. Nonetheless, he still lost in November 2010 by a 2:1 margin.

I suspect Jones to follow a similar path - a positive approval, a lead in early polling, and then losing by ~10 in what at the time was a surprisingly large margin, but in hindsight everyone thinks "c'mon, it was Alabama, he was never going to be re-elected".

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Strong lean R or weak likely R.

[The Mikado]

He is not going to survive with Donald Trump on the ballot.

Hopefully he's our next AG.

I like this. Makes "Replaces Jeff Sessions" into Doug Jones' entire career trajectory.

[DFL]

He is not going to survive with Donald Trump on the ballot.

Hopefully he's our next AG.

I like this. Makes "Replaces Jeff Sessions" into Doug Jones' entire career trajectory.

Honestly my dream. I'd hate to see him leave in 2020

[Frodo]

If he loses his Senate seat, he can always run for Governor in 2022 (I think that's the next time the office is up for election). 

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Jones loses, I hope it is to Perry O. Hooper Jr.

This guy is peak Alabama. Instead of water, he probably keeps sarsaparilla in his office coolers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Phil Bredesen can win in a red state like TN, Senator Jones can be reelected

[TML]

I'm going to say lean to likely R at this time.

Remember that in 2012, Democratic senate candidates in Indiana and Missouri won their respective races despite the Democratic presidential nominee losing both states decisively. Thus, the prospect of Jones winning again, however remote it may seem, cannot be discounted entirely.