AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[wesmoorenerd]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doug-jones-thinks-hes-supposed-to-be-here/

Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight just came out with a fantastic piece on Doug Jones, and it got me thinking about his prospects for 2020. Jones won last year, yes, and he is now an incumbent, but does he stand a chance in a presidential election year against someone that has to be better than Roy Moore?

Let's start off by analyzing Alabama as a state right now. To say Alabama is conservative is an understatement. Alabama has a PVI of R+14, is deeply inelastic, and racially polarized. Y'all already knew that. But one thing I think is important to keep in mind is the national environment is uniquely not beneficial to Jones. Trump's approval ratings in Alabama have been around 60%, so a "blue wave" scenario stemming from an unpopular administration is unlikely to make much of an impact in Alabama, and may even be harmful to AL Democrats by energizing Trump's base. So yeah, hostile territory for Dems all around.

Obviously, Jones would've likely lost to any other Republican. And Alabama, conservative as it is, has a strong GOP bench. Alabama has six GOP US Reps, a GOP Governor, a smattering of prominent GOP State Senators and Mayors, and, of course, Roy Moore. Literally anybody would be better than Roy Moore, although I wouldn't put it past the Alabama GOP to renominate him.

Jones himself has maintained surprisingly strong approval ratings in Alabama, around 47-25 with 28 percent giving no opinion. His net approval (if you go by Morning Consult numbers, which are certainly "meh" at times) is actually higher than Richard Shelby's, and his numbers are better than a good number of vulnerable Dems up this year (including Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin, and McCaskill). Beyond that, he's done a Manchin tier job in my opinion of balancing his conservative state with his personal beliefs. He has the second highest "Trump Score" of Senate Dems behind Manchin, and his rhetoric has been all about moderation and centrism.

So with all that in mind, is Jones DOA or is he the favorite? Somewhere in the middle? I'm honestly tempted to categorize this as a Lean R race this far out, but Jones probably has a better shot in 2020 than people give him credit for.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Likely R. Let's be real, folks, it's Alabama.

[KingSweden]

He is in for an extremely uphill battle

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Lean D. 2020 will not be a great year for Republicans nationwide, none of their potential candidates are very good in quality, and Jones is playing this entire situation perfectly. I wouldn't be that surprised if he held this senate seat until he died.

[Rookie Yinzer]

He is not going to survive with Donald Trump on the ballot.

Hopefully he's our next AG.

[IceSpear]

Likely R, just in case Republicans nominate another pedophile (possibly even Moore himself) again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R, but don't count him out, but still prepare and plan for a loss here.

[new_patomic]

I wouldn't call him dead on arrival.

But in a straight R vs D race it's pretty hard to imagine him winning.

[Mr. Smith]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

[Maxwell]

Lean/likely R, it's going to be amusing when Jones registers 70% job approval and still trail Mo god damn Brooks by 3-4 points.

[Canis]

Tossup

[Politician]

Lean R.

[wesmoorenerd]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

I think that's a fair comparison to make, but Brown's campaign faded down the stretch. It's important to remember that Warren really only gained the upper hand in the race a month or two before the election itself.

[nerd73]

"Weak" Likely R.

[Xing]

Lean R for now. He'll definitely need a lot of luck to win, but it's too soon to count him out.

[OneJ]

Lean R for now. He'll definitely need a lot of luck to win, but it's too soon to count him out.

[YE]

Lean R for now. He'll definitely need a lot of luck to win, but it's too soon to count him out.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

Brown lost by 8 in a D+4 year. Thus, we would expect Jones to win if Democrats are winning by more than 4 nationwide. That's plausible.

[mcmikk]

Lean R for now, but it's way too far out to give a good assessment of the state of the race. Depending on the political environment and candidates, I can see this race hovering between Likely R to Tossup, possibly even Lean D. (of course, notwithstanding another Roy Moore scenario)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AL moves to right with Jones

[emcee0]

Hopefully Roy Moore runs again.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I recommend Doug Jones to run for President or be picked as a VP slot.

[Skye]

It really depends on the environment, his approvals, and Trump.

It's really hard to say now, because even if Trump loses the election, he'll still carry AL.

I'd have to say this race begins, at the very least, Leaning R. I don't doubt he could put a decent performance, but probably not enough to win. Let's remember that despite the fact that he was actually a good candidate, he only won because of Moore.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I won't count him out since he appears to be more popular than he should be in being a Democrat from Alabama...but it's still Alabama. Lean R.

[Mr. Illini]

Scott Brown, 2010-2012...that is all. No difference.

Yup. Likely R.