AK-GOV: The Battle for the Last Frontier (poll edition)

[wesmoorenerd]

We've had threads on the Governor's race in Alaska, but I wanted to get a poll up.

Quick summary of the events thus far for those not caught up on the race: the race is one of the more unique races of the 2018 cycle so far, for a couple of reasons.

The biggest oddity by far is it's looking to be a three way race. Backstory: back in 2014, incumbent Sean Parnell was running for reelection as a Republican. His main opponent was Democrat Byron Mallott, but this dynamic changed when Independent Bill Walker jumped into the race and took Mallott on as his running mate. This ticket was endorsed by the Democratic Party, and this combined Dem-Indy ticket was enough to defeat Parnell. Walker took the Governor's Mansion, the only Independent Governor in the US.

Fast forwarding to 2018, Walker was originally planning to run on the Democratic ticket, but these plans were interrupted by the last second entry of former Sen. Mark Begich. Walker is running again as an Independent, and it looks like Begich will have no problems taking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans, meanwhile, have a hotly contested primary ongoing between former State Sen. Mike Dunleavy and former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell. A poll did show Dunleavy with a lead, but it was a Dunleavy internal.

TL;DR: Incumbent Bill Walker running as an Independent, Mark Begich running as a Democrat, either Mike Dunleavy or Mead Treadwell running as a Republican.

Unfortunately, no polling on a three way race has come out yet. There's polling showing both Walker and Begich with a decent lead over Dunleavy. Important caveat, though: those were in head to head races, and Walker and Begich will probably be splitting the center/left vote.

A few other unique things: Walker isn't exactly popular. His approval is sitting at an abysmal 29-55, one of the worst approval ratings in the entire country. Alaska is also a politically weird state, and a lot could happen. Anchorage is trending (non-atlas) blue and rural Alaska has been (non-atlas) blue for a long time, but the outskirts of Anchorage, the city of Fairbanks, and the small towns in that area that make up a good portion of Alaska's population have kept the state pretty (non-atlas) red.

So who'll it be? The Independent Walker staying above the fray and winning despite his poor approval ratings? Begich winning with his decent popularity and name recognition in the state? Dunleavy leading the (non-atlas) red state of Alaska to its roots? Treadwell emerging victorious from the primary and winning the general? Or some unanticipated factor?

[Mr. Smith]

Dunleavy via vote split between Begich and Walker.

[IceSpear]

Democrats can't afford to be splitting their vote in a state like Alaska.

Thanks to Begich, Lean I -> Likely R.

[Politician]

Lean R in Walker vs Begich vs Republican, Lean D with Begich vs Republican, Lean I with Walker vs Republican.

[TheSaint250]

While I think Dunleavy will pull it off in the end, I wouldn’t be surprised if the candidates received 2010 Senate election percentages, and if so, there’s a chance for either Walker or Begich to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Begich😀

[Skye]

Alaska is a super weird state, so I'd rather not risk making a prediction until more polls come out.

In a normal state, this would probably mean the GOP wins due to a split in the Democratic vote.

[KingSweden]

Alaska is a super weird state, so I'd rather not risk making a prediction until more polls come out.

In a normal state, this would probably mean the GOP wins due to a split in the Democratic vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democratic Mark Begich has an excellent chance

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Please don't use normie colours for the political parties.

Treadwell is basically a rep for the traditional elite of the Alaskan GOP, so I assume Dunleavy is filling in as the "outsider"?

Also I wonder whether Palin will endorse Walker again lol.

[Lennis]

I like Begich, but he needs to withdraw if he wants to keep the GOP out of the governors mansion. Walker and Begich on the same ballot is just pure vote splitting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its not a redistricting race, it doesn't really matter.

[Maxwell]

Treadwell is a very bad candidate, Dunleavy does not strike me as top tier either. I would not under-estimate Democratic chances here even with the vote split - though a Democratic victory probably means Walker comes in third place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R, and Young is safe, too

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm thinking Walker will end up in third. Not sure who wins, though I like the Republicans' chances. But Begich will always win my heart.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dunleavy/Mead Treadwell 38
Mark Begich 33
Bill Walker 29

Since there isn't no polling in NV, ME or AK, we have to guess

[Young Conservative]

R VS I = Lean R
R VS D= Lean D
R VS I VS D= Likely R (closer to safe than lean)

[KingSweden]

R VS I = Lean R
R VS D= Lean D
R VS I VS D= Likely R (closer to safe than lean)

Agree with this.

[Skunk]

Walker is going to end up getting third.

[Galaxie]

If only Alaska had a two-round system that forced a head-to-head :,(

[Progressive Pessimist]

Serious question: Is Mead Treadwell related to Timothy Treadwell of Grizzly Man fame in any way? Is Alaska just that small of a state (population-wise) that such a coincidence exists?

[Canis]

President of AFL says he is considering asking Begich or Walker to drop out.
http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Governors-race-heats-up-as-the-primary-election-looms-487835371.html

[Donerail]

Serious question: Is Mead Treadwell related to Timothy Treadwell of Grizzly Man fame in any way? Is Alaska just that small of a state (population-wise) that such a coincidence exists?

No relation -- neither is a native Alaskan.

[Zaybay]

President of AFL says he is considering asking Begich or Walker to drop out.
http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Governors-race-heats-up-as-the-primary-election-looms-487835371.html

Good, if this occurs, then the Gov. Mansion might be lean D/ tilt INDIE. I would rather they ask Walker to drop out though.

[TheSaint250]

I would hope a credible polling firm conducts polls doing two-candidate matchups of Walker vs. Dunleavy and Begich vs. Dunleavy, but I assume that if one of the two drops out, then internal polling is showing one being stronger than the other.