TX-31: Can/will MJ Hegar win?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Maybe no, however Beto O'Roruke can help her out with campaigning together in TX-31.

[Rhenna]

I can see a possible McGrath situation here, but it's unlikely.

[Politician]

Unlikely but possible.

[Jeppe]

Can she? Yes

Will she? Probably not.

[136or142]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

The district also includes the north part of Austin.  Austin has been split into about six Congressional (House) districts with the Republicans holding all but one of them.  

The conventional wisdom here is that the Democrats won't win any of these Republican held districts that include parts of Austin and that only this and the seat left open by Republican Lamer Smith are the only ones even slightly competitive, but the thing about excessive gerrymandering is that when one seat flips, there's a possibility all of them flip, and I think the Democrats are competitive in every district that includes part of Austin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

The district also includes the north part of Austin.  Austin has been split into about six Congressional (House) districts with the Republicans holding all but one of them.  

The conventional wisdom here is that the Democrats won't win any of these Republican held districts that include parts of Austin and that only this and the seat left open by Republican Lamer Smith are the only ones even slightly competitive, but the thing about excessive gerrymandering is that when one seat flips, there's a possibility all of them flip, and I think the Democrats are competitive in every district that includes part of Austin.

The Dem vote is so well cracked that while possibilities may exist in all of the seats splitting Austin, it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for them to win any more than one of them even in ideal circumstances.
In 2008 Columbus was cracked between 3 R-held CDs and Democrats only flipped one of the them by a mere 2,312 votes. The other two seats went GOP by double digits.

Not to mention that Deborah Pryce, the eight-term GOP incumbent, was retiring and the seat was open...

[136or142]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

The district also includes the north part of Austin.  Austin has been split into about six Congressional (House) districts with the Republicans holding all but one of them.  

The conventional wisdom here is that the Democrats won't win any of these Republican held districts that include parts of Austin and that only this and the seat left open by Republican Lamer Smith are the only ones even slightly competitive, but the thing about excessive gerrymandering is that when one seat flips, there's a possibility all of them flip, and I think the Democrats are competitive in every district that includes part of Austin.

The Dem vote is so well cracked that while possibilities may exist in all of the seats splitting Austin, it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for them to win any more than one of them even in ideal circumstances.
In 2008 Columbus was cracked between 3 R-held CDs and Democrats only flipped one of the them by a mere 2,312 votes. The other two seats went GOP by double digits.

Not to mention that Deborah Pryce, the eight-term GOP incumbent, was retiring and the seat was open...

I'm not so sure about that.  Nearly all of these partial Austin districts were less than 20% Congressional (U.S House) Republican wins in 2016.  If I recall the numbers correctly, the aggregate Texas Congressional (House) vote went from 61-34% in 2014 to 58-37% in 2016 while Hillary Clinton lost Texas 52-43%.  

There seems to be this view, presumably based on how well relatively Hillary Clinton did in Texas in 2016, that the Democrats can't make further vote gains in 2018.  I think that is just wrong.  Will it translate to many if any additional seats, I don't know.  But, as I wrote here and in a different thread, I think there is a good possibility that if one Austin based seat flips, that they all (or most) flip.

[morgieb]

Remain unconvinced. An open seat would've been doable, but R+10 is a tough nut to crack.

That is a quality ad though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

The district also includes the north part of Austin.  Austin has been split into about six Congressional (House) districts with the Republicans holding all but one of them. 

The conventional wisdom here is that the Democrats won't win any of these Republican held districts that include parts of Austin and that only this and the seat left open by Republican Lamer Smith are the only ones even slightly competitive, but the thing about excessive gerrymandering is that when one seat flips, there's a possibility all of them flip, and I think the Democrats are competitive in every district that includes part of Austin.

The Dem vote is so well cracked that while possibilities may exist in all of the seats splitting Austin, it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for them to win any more than one of them even in ideal circumstances.
In 2008 Columbus was cracked between 3 R-held CDs and Democrats only flipped one of the them by a mere 2,312 votes. The other two seats went GOP by double digits.

Not to mention that Deborah Pryce, the eight-term GOP incumbent, was retiring and the seat was open...

I'm not so sure about that.  Nearly all of these partial Austin districts were less than 20% Congressional (U.S House) Republican wins in 2016.  If I recall the numbers correctly, the aggregate Texas Congressional (House) vote went from 61-34% in 2014 to 58-37% in 2016 while Hillary Clinton lost Texas 52-43%. 

There seems to be this view, presumably based on how well relatively Hillary Clinton did in Texas in 2016, that the Democrats can't make further vote gains in 2018.  I think that is just wrong.  Will it translate to many if any additional seats, I don't know.  But, as I wrote here and in a different thread, I think there is a good possibility that if one Austin based seat flips, that they all (or most) flip.

It's natural for Democrats to gain relatively less in Texas in 2018 in House PV compared to Clinton numbers. It's very likely for there to be some Clinton 16-Culberson 18 voters, for example. The mere fact they voted Clinton does not make them surefire House D voters. Clinton hit numbers Democrats have never reached since '64 or '76 in some parts of Texas (just four years after Romney did very well in many of the same areas). Clinton 16'-House GOP 2016 voters are likely to be quite divided this year and how they behave will decide the fate of the likes of Carter, Culberson, etc.

[136or142]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

The district also includes the north part of Austin.  Austin has been split into about six Congressional (House) districts with the Republicans holding all but one of them.  

The conventional wisdom here is that the Democrats won't win any of these Republican held districts that include parts of Austin and that only this and the seat left open by Republican Lamer Smith are the only ones even slightly competitive, but the thing about excessive gerrymandering is that when one seat flips, there's a possibility all of them flip, and I think the Democrats are competitive in every district that includes part of Austin.

The Dem vote is so well cracked that while possibilities may exist in all of the seats splitting Austin, it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for them to win any more than one of them even in ideal circumstances.
In 2008 Columbus was cracked between 3 R-held CDs and Democrats only flipped one of the them by a mere 2,312 votes. The other two seats went GOP by double digits.

Not to mention that Deborah Pryce, the eight-term GOP incumbent, was retiring and the seat was open...

I'm not so sure about that.  Nearly all of these partial Austin districts were less than 20% Congressional (U.S House) Republican wins in 2016.  If I recall the numbers correctly, the aggregate Texas Congressional (House) vote went from 61-34% in 2014 to 58-37% in 2016 while Hillary Clinton lost Texas 52-43%.  

There seems to be this view, presumably based on how well relatively Hillary Clinton did in Texas in 2016, that the Democrats can't make further vote gains in 2018.  I think that is just wrong.  Will it translate to many if any additional seats, I don't know.  But, as I wrote here and in a different thread, I think there is a good possibility that if one Austin based seat flips, that they all (or most) flip.

It's natural for Democrats to gain relatively less in Texas in 2018 in House PV compared to Clinton numbers. It's very likely for there to be some Clinton 16-Culberson 18 voters, for example. The mere fact they voted Clinton does not make them surefire House D voters. Clinton hit numbers Democrats have never reached since '64 or '76 in some parts of Texas (just four years after Romney did very well in many of the same areas). Clinton 16'-House GOP 2016 voters are likely to be quite divided this year and how they behave will decide the fate of the likes of Carter, Culberson, etc.

They were divided in 2016.  You are arguing basically what I claimed above: because Hillary Clinton did relatively well in Texas in 2016, that has to be the high water mark for Congressional Democrats there (the 2016 Congressional vote).  If you look at the national generic Congressional ballot, I just don't agree with that.

[InheritTheWind]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/06/20/company-runs-immigration-detention-centers-top-donor-two-texas-congressmen

Carter's top donor – as well as the top donor of two fellow Texas congrescritters, Republican John Culberson and Democrat Henry Cuellar – is a company that runs one of those quaint little immigration detention centers.

Wonder if this will make any waves in the race.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cook Political Report recently changed R+10 TX-31 from Safe R to Likely R.

The Democratic candidate, MJ Hegar, has an extended campaign ad/video that seems, as far as I can tell, to be as good and arguably better, than the one that Amy McGrath had in KY-06.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

As a suburban mom living in Round Rock and a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan, she seems like a very good fit for the district (which includes the northern Austin suburbs in Williamson County and also Fort Hood). Her book "shoot like a girl" is apparently also being made into a movie.

So, does she actually have a chance to knock off Republican incumbent John Carter, or not?

The district also includes the north part of Austin.  Austin has been split into about six Congressional (House) districts with the Republicans holding all but one of them. 

The conventional wisdom here is that the Democrats won't win any of these Republican held districts that include parts of Austin and that only this and the seat left open by Republican Lamer Smith are the only ones even slightly competitive, but the thing about excessive gerrymandering is that when one seat flips, there's a possibility all of them flip, and I think the Democrats are competitive in every district that includes part of Austin.

The Dem vote is so well cracked that while possibilities may exist in all of the seats splitting Austin, it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for them to win any more than one of them even in ideal circumstances.
In 2008 Columbus was cracked between 3 R-held CDs and Democrats only flipped one of the them by a mere 2,312 votes. The other two seats went GOP by double digits.

Not to mention that Deborah Pryce, the eight-term GOP incumbent, was retiring and the seat was open...

I'm not so sure about that.  Nearly all of these partial Austin districts were less than 20% Congressional (U.S House) Republican wins in 2016.  If I recall the numbers correctly, the aggregate Texas Congressional (House) vote went from 61-34% in 2014 to 58-37% in 2016 while Hillary Clinton lost Texas 52-43%. 

There seems to be this view, presumably based on how well relatively Hillary Clinton did in Texas in 2016, that the Democrats can't make further vote gains in 2018.  I think that is just wrong.  Will it translate to many if any additional seats, I don't know.  But, as I wrote here and in a different thread, I think there is a good possibility that if one Austin based seat flips, that they all (or most) flip.

It's natural for Democrats to gain relatively less in Texas in 2018 in House PV compared to Clinton numbers. It's very likely for there to be some Clinton 16-Culberson 18 voters, for example. The mere fact they voted Clinton does not make them surefire House D voters. Clinton hit numbers Democrats have never reached since '64 or '76 in some parts of Texas (just four years after Romney did very well in many of the same areas). Clinton 16'-House GOP 2016 voters are likely to be quite divided this year and how they behave will decide the fate of the likes of Carter, Culberson, etc.

They were divided in 2016.  You are arguing basically what I claimed above: because Hillary Clinton did relatively well in Texas in 2016, that has to be the high water mark for Congressional Democrats there (the 2016 Congressional vote).  If you look at the national generic Congressional ballot, I just don't agree with that.

By divided, I mean they will be divided between voting for House GOP candidates and House Dem candidates, while in 2016 they all voted for House GOP candidates.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Clinton hit numbers Democrats have never reached since '64 or '76 in some parts of Texas (just four years after Romney did very well in many of the same areas).

In some parts (mainly particular parts of the Houston, Dallas, and Austin suburbs), yes. In other parts, no.

It partially depends on how you count all the 3rd party votes. There are a lot of counties where Clinton got a lower overall % than Obama '08 (but Trump also got a lower % than Romney '12 and/or McCain '08). And overall the vote margins in a lot of places are pretty similar to Obama-McCain.

In the case of TX-31, in Williamson County (the Austin suburbs part of the district), although it swung away from Romney '12, both Clinton and Trump did worse than Obama and McCain in '08 (with a 5% vote for Gary Johnson, which looks like basically the best Johnson did anywhere in Texas).

A big part of whether a race like TX-31 could become competitive depends on what all those Johnson voters (and other 3rd party voters) do. If someone like Hegar could pick up the bulk of those votes, that would go a long way to closing the gap.

On the other hand, in Bell County (the Fort Hood part of the district), Trump did just as well as McCain in '08, and Clinton got a lower % than Obama in either '08 or '12. A big part of this is in Clinton doing worse than Obama in '08 (or '12) in Killeen (Fort Hood), which has lots of military voters, lots of black voters, and lots of youngs. Hegar can probably do that at least to some extent (the military voters), and to an unknown extent the black voters and the youngs.

So to win, Hegar would need to simultaneously replicate (and improve on) Clinton's appeal in the suburbs, pick up the big portion of all the 3rd party votes, and bring back Obama's appeal in Killeen.

Here's a precinct map of the swing from 2012 to 2016 in Texas. Notice the big swings to Democrats in the Austin suburbs, but also the swing to Trump in Killeen/Fort Hood, a swing that Hegar can potentially reverse.

https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-TX-Swing-Inv.png

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok, I'm convinced...this praticular race (TX-31) is more winnable than I previously thought...
In any event I don't think Democrats would be able to win a majority of the House delegation at large...
Some incumbents will weather the storm more than others. In 2006, Hostettler was blown out of the water even as Mike Pence survived. Waves rarely take down everyone. The Democratic gains in 2006 and 2008 were quite random anyway.

[136or142]

Just to be a completist, there are five districts that include parts of Austin.  The Democrats hold one of them (Lloyd Doggett.)

In addition to M.J (Mary Jennings) Hegar and Joseph Kopser in the open 21 district held by retiring Lamer Smith, there is the 10th district where Mike Siegal is challenging Michael McCaul and the 25th district where Julie Oliver is challenging Roger Williams.  In both of these districts in 2016, the Republican won by just under 60-40%.

[DFL]

Just to be a completist, there are five districts that include parts of Austin.  The Democrats hold one of them (Lloyd Doggett.)

In addition to M.J (Mary Jennings) Hegar and Joseph Kopser in the open 21 district held by retiring Lamer Smith, there is the 10th district where Mike Siegal is challenging Michael McCaul and the 25th district where Julie Oliver is challenging Roger Williams.  In both of these districts in 2016, the Republican won by just under 60-40%.

With all this in mind, definitely think that Hegar is the strongest dem candidate in central TX, but maybe not in the easiest R district

[henster]

Sucks we have these great recruits in districts like this, we could use someone like this in NY-24 or WA-08.

[OneJ]

Sucks we have these great recruits in districts like this, we could use someone like this in NY-24 or WA-08.

Not sure about NY-24, but we have a good one in WA-08.

[Maxwell]

I was a little less impressed with that ad she put out than others but it's solid - it still won't be enough to win here probably. Trump won here with 57% of the vote.

If she gets within 10 points it's a good night.

[Bidenworth2020]

I was a little less impressed with that ad she put out than others but it's solid - it still won't be enough to win here probably. Trump won here with 57% of the vote.

If she gets within 10 points it's a good night.

no, he didn't. he won 53-40. however, Romney won 60-38

[Jeppe]

Sucks we have these great recruits in districts like this, we could use someone like this in NY-24 or WA-08.

Not sure about NY-24, but we have a good one in WA-08.

Kim Schrier is a great candidate. Being a doctor is an advantage in a year when Medicare & ACA is constantly under attack by Republicans.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

U.S. Rep. John Carter prepares for tougher-than-usual race against MJ Hegar

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[wesmoorenerd]

Hegar may well catch Carter off guard. It's still Likely R, but it's probably the fourth or fifth Texas district to flip.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Will be very close but ultimately I think she will fall short.