AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5
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  AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5  (Read 2620 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: June 24, 2018, 10:30:03 AM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-arizona-florida-texas-immigration-and-key-senate-races/

Sinema 46
Ward 38

Sinema 49
Arpaio 29

Sinema 45
McSally 37

Cruz 50
O'Rourke 40

Scott 46
Nelson 41

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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2018, 10:34:13 AM »
Can't believe the GOP is in such a bad position in AZ.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2018, 10:43:36 AM »
I'm kinda skeptical about the FL number but otherwise, these seem pretty believable.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2018, 10:46:35 AM »
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on June 24, 2018, 10:43:36 AM
I'm kinda skeptical about the FL number but otherwise, these seem pretty believable.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2018, 10:53:34 AM »
Sounds about right.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2018, 10:54:09 AM »
I got all excited until I saw it was YouGov. Definitely a helpful data point nonetheless.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2018, 10:56:53 AM »
It's virtually a wash, Dems win AZ and GOP wins FL.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2018, 11:04:20 AM »
Trump with a higher approval in Florida than Arizona and Texas? No way he’s at 52/48 in FL and if you reverse that number, Nelson has a lead like that PPP poll.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2018, 11:04:33 AM »
The FL numbers we are seeing in various polls are starting to get legitimately worrying. Is Nelson really going to blow it? In a midterm with a Republican President, he should be a shoo-in for re-election.

The other ones are about as expected.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2018, 11:12:16 AM »
Anyone notice that Sinema always seems stuck at 45/46 on average?
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2018, 11:13:28 AM »
Scott is not tied with Hispanic voters in Florida. We need a high quality poll there and this isn’t one.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2018, 11:17:33 AM »
Trump approval is also not 52/48 in Florida if it's 50/50 in Texas.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2018, 11:18:18 AM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on June 24, 2018, 11:17:33 AM
Trump approval is also not 52/48 in Florida if it's 50/50 in Texas.

Along with just principle, this is why I don't trust multi-state polls.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2018, 11:34:17 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2018, 11:38:21 AM by Brittain33 »
Rick Scott has twice performed well with the Hispanic vote in Florida. I hope that now it will be 3 times.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2018, 11:43:22 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on June 24, 2018, 11:12:16 AM
Anyone notice that Sinema always seems stuck at 45/46 on average?
Ye. I don't think shell have trouble with 4+5% tho lol
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2018, 11:48:25 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on June 24, 2018, 11:12:16 AM
Anyone notice that Sinema always seems stuck at 45/46 on average?

You could make the same claim about Scott.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2018, 12:32:08 PM »
TX looks about right, but the AZ number looks a bit D friendly, and the FL number looks R friendly. Perhaps if the undecideds are R-leaning in AZ and D-leaning in FL, these numbers make sense.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2018, 01:37:59 PM »
Some interesting numbers here:

Would you like the next Senator from [state] to be someone who generally:

Arizona:

Tries to support Donald Trump as much as they can: 33%
Is conservative but independent from Donald Trump at times: 17%
Is progressive but tries to work with Donald Trump at times: 22%
Tries to oppose Donald Trump as much as they can: 28%

Florida:

Tries to support Donald Trump as much as they can: 36%
Is conservative but independent from Donald Trump at times: 20%
Is progressive but tries to work with Donald Trump at times: 20%
Tries to oppose Donald Trump as much as they can: 24%

(Not asked for Texas)
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2018, 01:48:32 PM »
Scott didnt perform well with Hispanics either time, he won because of the white vote.
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OneJ
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« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2018, 01:55:03 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on June 24, 2018, 12:32:08 PM
TX looks about right, but the AZ number looks a bit D friendly, and the FL number looks R friendly. Perhaps if the undecideds are R-leaning in AZ and D-leaning in FL, these numbers make sense.

Are you sure about AZ? IIRC, this definitely isn’t the first time Sinema was leading McSally by a margin not too far from the +8.
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Sestak
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« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2018, 02:14:57 PM »
FYI, this is NOT a CBS poll. It's a YouGov poll conducted for CBS.
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Politician
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« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2018, 02:37:59 PM »
Arizona: Likely D
Florida: Tossup/Tilt D
Texas: Likely R
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2018, 03:39:56 PM »
Big if true, since Arizona seems more likely to go Democratic than Florida (with an incumbent) at this point. I still think Nelson edges this out, but Scott is overperforming expectations. If Hillary was president, this race could be only lean Republican at best.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2018, 03:53:41 PM »
I don’t buy Trump approval being +4 in FL, unless either suddenly FL has turned from a light red to a decently red state or Trump approval is well above water nationwide.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2018, 03:56:19 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on June 24, 2018, 11:34:17 AM
Rick Scott has twice performed well with the Hispanic vote in Florida. I hope that now it will be 3 times.

Not in 2014, according to the exit poll (link). He lost their vote bigly - about as bad as Romney. Perhaps he will track Trump's numbers and lose them by even more this time around.
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