AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:40:28 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5  (Read 2587 times)
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,175
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2018, 03:59:37 PM »

Can't believe the GOP is in such a bad position in AZ.

McCain, Flake, Arpaio

With a flammable mix like that how could a party come to an agreement?

After the primary there will be some coming together.  But it will be difficult.

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2018, 04:11:51 PM »

Once the unity ticket come together, Nelson should beat Scott, when Graham becomes nominee

Trump has endorsed Apairo, Sinema hopefully has him as an opponent
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2018, 04:24:40 PM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,175
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2018, 04:27:50 PM »


Trump has endorsed Apairo, Sinema hopefully has him as an opponent

Dreamer

Trump has not endorsed in this race.

McConnell has thrown his weight behind McSally.  This will either help or could boomerang to Ward’s benefit.  

Arpaio will not be the nominee
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2018, 04:28:17 PM »

He was an underdog anyways.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2018, 04:32:03 PM »

I'm kinda skeptical about the FL number but otherwise, these seem pretty believable.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,175
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2018, 04:43:58 PM »

I warn you chasing Republicans like Bondi down to drive them out of theaters and restaurants is not going to help Democrats in Florida.  New York maybe.  Not Florida.
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,678
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2018, 05:03:27 PM »

Sinema is almost certainly going to win.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2018, 05:09:43 PM »

Look, we almost are all arguing about a slight Nelson or Scott win one way or the other, but I think we can come to an agreement and say that Nelson is yet again quite lucky, and in basically any other non blue wave national environment, Scott would be winning by several points on election night.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 24, 2018, 05:12:07 PM »

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2018, 05:15:25 PM »

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”

Look, Scott leading by 1-3 is bad for my candidate, but I still find it believable. In fact, I think if an election were held tommorow, Scott would win by about 2 points. I still think Nelson wins by like a point in the end, but my point is that Scott leading does not mean that I automatically think it is fake because I don't like the result, but Scott leading by 5 seems like a bit much.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2018, 05:19:51 PM »

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”

1) Beto is my preferred candidate and I’m saying Cruz+10 is believable
2) It’s perfectly reasonable to be skeptical of a poll with Trump approval at +4 in FL
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2018, 05:20:33 PM »

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”

Look, Scott leading by 1-3 is bad for my candidate, but I still find it believable. In fact, I think if an election were held tommorow, Scott would win by about 2 points. I still think Nelson wins by like a point in the end, but my point is that Scott leading does not mean that I automatically think it is fake because I don't like the result, but Scott leading by 5 seems like a bit much.

And the ideological count was like 19 point spread between liberal and conservative. Texas and Arizona's were half that. What did the exit polls look like in 16?
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2018, 05:22:56 PM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2018, 05:29:39 PM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.
Logged
DFL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 931


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2018, 05:32:49 PM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.



Did he run for president of his kindergarten class?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2018, 06:08:17 PM »

Joe Arpairo is a Trump and he endorsed Trump for prez
Logged
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,469
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2018, 06:09:50 PM »

Anyone notice that Sinema always seems stuck at 45/46 on average?

Makes sense as we are still in primary season and Sinema has locked down the unanimous support of AZ Democrats.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2018, 06:14:09 PM »

I doubt the FL lead holds up for Scott, Latinos are gonna cote for Nelson
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 24, 2018, 06:23:40 PM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.

Why doesnt Lying Ted use his real name Rafael? Also...why doesnt he tell us he was born in Calgary?
Logged
Rhenna
Gabor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 625
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 24, 2018, 06:27:32 PM »

Nelson is clearly DOA and Sinema is a lock. They both cancel each other out.
Logged
cvparty
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 24, 2018, 06:33:18 PM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.
calm down the boi grew up in el paso not texarkana
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 24, 2018, 06:38:49 PM »

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”

There’s reason to be skeptical of all of these numbers considering it’s a multistate YouGov poll, tbf
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 25, 2018, 05:28:14 AM »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.
double lie, no way around it lol
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 25, 2018, 06:29:49 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 06:34:14 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Reminder for noobs:
Quinnipiac poll of Ohio Senate, 6/27/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 42%
Rob Portman (R) - 40%

PPP poll of Ohio Senate, 6/26/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 40%
Rob Portman (R) - 38%

Rick Scott is a well-known and somewhat popular figure in Florida so it shouldn't come as a surprise that, as of the present moment, FL-Sen appears to be a battleground but there's a case to be made that this state of affairs will evaporate after Labor Day once people start paying attention. In the end, Rick Scott has many liabilities, Bill Nelson is a popular incumbent and we're still in a Blue Wave environment.

Many of you are too young to remember the 2010 midterms or didn't follow politics at the time. I remember the polling breaking hard against Democrats when the campaigns kicked off in earnest. If you're a Republican, you shouldn't be optimistic about the midterms, even if there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Trump's odds of being re-elected.

edit: Florida sample is 43 R/39 D/15 I. This doesn't invalidate the poll, possible midterm electorate will look like this, but it's worth mentioning.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 13 queries.