AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Look, we almost are all arguing about a slight Nelson or Scott win one way or the other, but I think we can come to an agreement and say that Nelson is yet again quite lucky, and in basically any other non blue wave national environment, Scott would be winning by several points on election night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm kinda skeptical about the FL number but otherwise, these seem pretty believable.

Translation: “I’m skeptical of the number that is bad for my preferred candidate, but everything else seems good!”

Look, Scott leading by 1-3 is bad for my candidate, but I still find it believable. In fact, I think if an election were held tommorow, Scott would win by about 2 points. I still think Nelson wins by like a point in the end, but my point is that Scott leading does not mean that I automatically think it is fake because I don't like the result, but Scott leading by 5 seems like a bit much.