TX UT-Austin/Texas Tribune: Cruz +5

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

This is like saying that a Democrat like Doug Jones could not have won in Alabama, which is something that actually happened for the first time in 25 years.

11, actually.

9 at the time, actually. Lucy Baxley won PSC President in 2008

Huh. I thought AL has the same PSC system as MS, and didn't realize that was statewide.

[UWS]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

This is like saying that a Democrat like Doug Jones could not have won in Alabama, which is something that actually happened for the first time in 25 years.

11, actually.

9 at the time, actually. Lucy Baxley won PSC President in 2008

Huh. I thought AL has the same PSC system as MS, and didn't realize that was statewide.

I meant at the senatorial level.

And Alabama is more conservative than Texas so Texas is clearly more winnable than Alabama for the Democrats.

[Young Conservative]

Too many undecideds to put any stock in this.

[Zaybay]

Cruz has hot the state's lean and its rather inelsaticity in his corner, but Beto has got Cruz's unpopularity, the national environment and his own personal appeal in his corner.

For Beto to win, he needs to convince the suburbs to vote for him, drive up Latino Turnout, and keep the rural area margins low.

Im surprised people are already saying, "this is what I expect the race to be in the end" or "This is likely/safe R" considering the actual campaign season has not started and Cruz is already in a mid to high single digit race against a candidate 1/2 the state doesnt even know. Beto is sitting on a mountain of money, and Cruz is appearing more and more desperate for funds. I wonder if this race is closer than we all think, though even I peg this as tilt/lean R.

[Doimper]

Tilt D. Cruz's loss will be to the 2018 blue wave what Cuomo's loss was to the 1994 Republican Revolution: the ideological cherry on top of a gigantic victory sundae.

[pbrower2a]

An incumbent up only 41-35 over a barely-known challenger at this stage? Vulnerable. Cruz needs at least a 43% share of the likely vote already locked up if he is to have a better-than-50% chance of winning re-election.


See Nate Silver's Myth of 50%

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

Sure, his model was wrong about Strickland vs. Kasich -- but by his model, Cruz is in deep trouble even if he has a bare early lead.

It applies just the same to incumbent Senators as to incumbent Governors... and it is easy to say, but Cruz is in Texas. Sure -- and Feingold was a much-respected Senator from Wisconsin, a state famous for progressive tendencies. Governor Scott Walker and Senator Ron Johnson have smashed that reputation!

Demographics are trending against Republicans in Texas. The Mexican-American component of the electorate is growing fast, and even if it is culturally conservative it has its limits on political conservatism when such implies cruelty. Add to this, Texas is much closer to the American average in levels of formal education, in part because of well-educated people moving to Texas' giant cities Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. Well-educated people have been slower to go Republican in Texas than much of the rest of the country... but the 2016 suggests that such people are catching up in Texas (see also Arizona and Georgia).  

[Doimper]

An incumbent up only 41-35 over a barely-known challenger at this stage? Vulnerable. Cruz needs at least a 43% share of the likely vote already locked up if he is to have a better-than-50% chance of winning re-election.


See Nate Silver's Myth of 50%

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

Sure, his model was wrong about Strickland vs. Kasich -- but by his model, Cruz is in deep trouble even if he has a bare early lead.

It applies just the same to incumbent Senators as to incumbent Governors... and it is easy to say, but Cruz is in Texas. Sure -- and Feingold was a much-respected Senator from Wisconsin, a state famous for progressive tendencies. Governor Scott Walker and Senator Ron Johnson have smashed that reputation!

Demographics are trending against Republicans in Texas. The mexican-American component of the electorate is growing fast, and even if it is culturally conservatives it has its limits on political conservatism when such implies cruelty. Add to this, Texas is much closer to the American average in levels of formal education, in part because of well-educated people moving to Texas' giant cities Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. Well-educated people have been slower to go Republican in Texas than much of the rest of the country... but the 2016 suggests that such people are catching up in Texas (see also Arizona and Georgia). 

No, Texas will be forever Republican because muh titanium R suburbs, muh compassionate conservativism, and muh R-leaning Latinos.

[Sbane]

What's interesting about Texas is how many right leaning minority voters there are in this state. That is why Texas is titanium R. It is quite similar to how there were a ton of left leaning white voters in the rust belt states prior to 2016.....

[pbrower2a]

He can lose.

In a good year for Republicans he should be clobbering any challenger at this point. Ge has name recognition, but it isn't helping him enough yet. Texas' support for the President is tepid at best.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are concentrating on TN, not TX in a wave Democratic year.

[UWS]

Dems are concentrating on TN, not TX in a wave Democratic year.

Actually they are focusing on Texas as well. Congressman Joseph Patrick Kennedy III is campaigning with O’Rourke in Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Dems are concentrating on TN, not TX in a wave Democratic year.

Tennessee is lower-hanging fruit because it has an open seat and a popular Democratic ex-Governor running for it in a wave year. Texas has some costly media markets (Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso).

This said, remember 2006, when Democrats replaced Chaffee, Santorum, Allen, Talent, and Burns -- all GOP incumbents, for different reasons. (dying GOP in his state, abuse of power, arasive campaign, appointed nominee who didn't improve his position, and corruption).   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz will win.

[Pyro]

Flawless Beautiful Punk-Rocker Cruz Beto will win.

[_]

Cruz will win.

R Hack

[Yellowhammer]

Cruz is as safe as Baldwin. He could conceivably lose, but it's very unlikely.

[Zaybay]

Cruz has only been scoring in the mid to high single digits to an opponent who is only known to 1/2 the state and has a larger treasury than him. If the wave is D+8, I expect a close election, perhaps decided by 0.1%. People forget that the campaign season has not begun yet, it starts at around August. Thats why you see a shift in polling at that time. The voters who pay attention to politics and decide elections only tune in around August, and that's the group that will decide everything. This is why Beto has not spent that much money, Blackburn has only spent 100,000, and Bill Nelson has not launched any major ads or events. Dont get caught like in 2016 with Bayh or in 2012 with Brown(many thought Warren was a leftwing nut and would not win early on).

[cvparty]

Cruz is as safe as Baldwin. He could conceivably lose, but it's very unlikely.

boi rly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz has only been scoring in the mid to high single digits to an opponent who is only known to 1/2 the state and has a larger treasury than him. If the wave is D+8, I expect a close election, perhaps decided by 0.1%. People forget that the campaign season has not begun yet, it starts at around August. Thats why you see a shift in polling at that time. The voters who pay attention to politics and decide elections only tune in around August, and that's the group that will decide everything. This is why Beto has not spent that much money, Blackburn has only spent 100,000, and Bill Nelson has not launched any major ads or events. Dont get caught like in 2016 with Bayh or in 2012 with Brown(many thought Warren was a leftwing nut and would not win early on).

NRA spent millions defeating Clinton on Scalia nomination to block Garland, they will spend millions on behalf of Cruz to save this Crt pick

[Zaybay]

Cruz has only been scoring in the mid to high single digits to an opponent who is only known to 1/2 the state and has a larger treasury than him. If the wave is D+8, I expect a close election, perhaps decided by 0.1%. People forget that the campaign season has not begun yet, it starts at around August. Thats why you see a shift in polling at that time. The voters who pay attention to politics and decide elections only tune in around August, and that's the group that will decide everything. This is why Beto has not spent that much money, Blackburn has only spent 100,000, and Bill Nelson has not launched any major ads or events. Dont get caught like in 2016 with Bayh or in 2012 with Brown(many thought Warren was a leftwing nut and would not win early on).

NRA spent millions defeating Clinton on Scalia nomination to block Garland, they will spend millions on behalf of Cruz to save this Crt pick

Clinton received a lot of money and outspent Trump in the election, but still lost(though I guess she technically won, anyway). A superpac can spend as much money as it wants, but if a candidate is fundraising poorly, or in this case, is being beaten by small dollar donations, then its clear that something is wrong. Also, I doubt having a good chunk of your support coming from the NRA, especially after recent events, will be portrayed in a good light.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz will win.

R Hack

Ratings have it Safe R

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Cruz will win.

R Hack

Ratings have it Safe R

Those are hackish ratings, then.

[wxtransit]

Cruz is still favored to win, though I'd say it's definitely within the realm of possibility for Beto to pull off a small 1-2 point win.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

What's interesting about Texas is how many right leaning minority voters there are in this state. That is why Texas is titanium R. It is quite similar to how there were a ton of left leaning white voters in the rust belt states prior to 2016.....

Sounds like the central valley in California

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is no one talking about how there's 17% undecided two weeks before election day?