MT-Remington: Tester leads by 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Tester may lose

[MT Treasurer]

PPP > Remington.

I'm not sure why some here are so quick to dismiss PPP.

Remington's final MO poll had Blunt winning by 4, Trump by 13 and Greitens by 1, so aside from the Senate numbers there was nothing Republican-friendly about that poll. Sure, they also released a lot of bad polls in 2016, but so did PPP. Dismissing or "unskewing" either poll just because you don’t like the result would be foolish, just include it in your polling average. I’m pretty sure that Tester +3 isn’t a more ridiculous result than Tester +13 (SurveyMonkey).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

PPP > Remington.

I'm not sure why some here are so quick to dismiss PPP.

Remington's final MO poll had Blunt winning by 4, Trump by 13 and Greitens by 1, so aside from the Senate numbers there was nothing Republican-friendly about that poll. Sure, they also released a lot of bad polls in 2016, but so did PPP. Dismissing or "unskewing" either poll just because you don’t like the result would be foolish, just include it in your polling average. I’m pretty sure that Tester +3 isn’t a more ridiculous result than Tester +13 (SurveyMonkey).

Still in disbelief that you think Petroleum county will narrowly go to Rosendale.

[Xing]

Not the best poll for Tester, but of course him leading by 3 makes this a Toss-Up, while a poll showing Cruz up by 2 doesn’t change the fact that TX is ultra safe titanium R #AtlasLogic

[MT Treasurer]

Not the best poll for Tester, but of course him leading by 3 makes this a Toss-Up, while a poll showing Cruz up by 2 doesn’t change the fact that TX is ultra safe titanium R #AtlasLogic

So one or two posters = Atlas? Last time I checked, most people still think MT and TX are both leaning toward the incumbent's party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

it should be 48 R-45 D on the Fox news battle for Senate; but TX, it will monumentus if Beto pulls it off

[Hindsight was 2020]

Remington (R): Tester +3 - Republican pollster, junk poll, Tester is leading by much more than that
PPP (D): Bredesen +3 - Devastating poll for Republicans, Tossup/Tilt D

Counter point there was been recent polling of Montana that has Tester higher while Tennessee has had little polling so we have to go off what we can

[MT Treasurer]

^What recent polling? SurveyMonkey (Tester +13/Blackburn +14)? Or Gravis (Tester +7/Williams +6/surprisingly Democratic-friendly results on a lot of issues)? Of those three, Remington is probably the most trustworthy pollster, although that’s a low bar. 

I think Tester is leading by 4-7 points right now in a race that definitely leans (strongly) D, but perhaps I’m underestimating how Democratic/populist Montana is.

[Hindsight was 2020]

^What recent polling? SurveyMonkey (Tester +13/Blackburn +14)? Or Gravis (Tester +7/Williams +6/surprisingly Democratic-friendly results on a lot of issues)? Of those three, Remington is probably the most trustworthy pollster, although that’s a low bar. 

I think Tester is leading by 4-7 points right now in a race that definitely leans (strongly) D, but perhaps I’m underestimating how Democratic/populist Montana is.

Yeah that is what I was referring to. Granted those two stink but it’s more than what we have in Tennessee though on the flip side most Tennessee polls that have come out have more or less Bredesen +3 as well

[Calthrina950]

Bad for Tester. Tossup.

Mods must do something for all these bots posting spam in every thread.

Not everyone who is not on your side of the ideological spectrum is a bot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not bad for Tester, but also not great for Tester.

[Skye]

I don't really get why this poll is good news for Tester. It shows the race is in play. Granted, it's Remington, though that's beeter than that horible Survey Monkey poll.

That said, I believe Tester is in better shape than, say, McCaskill or Heitkamp, heay end up winning like he did in 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bad for Tester. Tossup.

Mods must do something for all these bots posting spam in every thread.

Not everyone who is not on your side of the ideological spectrum is a bot.

But if someone always posts the same predictable prepackaged talking points in every post, that's worth a look.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate stands at 49-46 and common wisdom has Heidi is the number 1 Dem to lose. The Dems has a 1 seat margin of error if TN goes Democrat and FL, ND, MT, MO & IN can go red

[Rhenna]

The Senate stands at 49-46 and common wisdom has Heidi is the number 1 Dem to lose. The Dems has a 1 seat margin of error if TN goes Democrat and FL, ND, MT, MO & IN can go red

Heidi is much less vulnerable that the MSM and atlas paints her to be. She was down against Berg until the very end and I'm not sure if Cramer is a better candidate than Berg. Also, the year will be more dem-friendly than 2012. I say Donnelly is more vulnerable.

[gerritcole]

Rosendale has been cooking the books apparently?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-senate-hopeful-cooks-books-skirts-donation-limits

[UncleSam]

Rosendale has been cooking the books apparently?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-senate-hopeful-cooks-books-skirts-donation-limits

Ya...that’s not what cooking the books means. Cooking the books means falsifying information for the purposes of covering up fraud or other illegal activities. Even within that article it is admitted that this practice is above board and more of a clever accounting practice than anything else.

Democrats should take note and use this same strategy. I see nothing wrong with it unless you believe that large political contributions are wrong, in which case I’d argue that to change the law you need to be willing to play by the rules of the game lest you be at a disadvantage. Until then, everyone should be using this if you have donors willing to max out that high.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Not bad for Tester, but also not great for Tester.