AZ - NBC/Marist: Sinema +10/+11/+25 McSally +2 in Primary

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Seems like Arizona is competing with Georgia and Texas on which state will flip blue the fastest

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

What if Joe Arpaio wins in a huge upset in the primary?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Arpaio's numbers have flattened and will likely tumble even more by election day when people get the impression he doesn't have a chance.  The primary is McSally v Ward and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if a late break for Ward gets her the nomination.

Regardless, Sinema should win this and I wouldn't be surprised if the Governor's race goes the D's way as well.

It seems like there is very little difference between Ward and McSally these days.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

You also can't ignore Yuma County. It has nearly 200,000 people and swung HARD to the Democrats in 2016 (from 55.5-42.9 Romney to Trump 47.5-46.4).

It'll be basically impossible for the GOP to win AZ if the trends in AZ continue, and it's not just the trends in Maricopa.

Yuma County is gone for the GOP in the 2018 and 2020 elections and beyond.