Scott has spent $20MM so far on tv ads and still can't shake the space man.
It's not like this is a red state to begin with. Nelson is a relatively popular Democratic incumbent in a purple state running for reelection in the middle of a blue wave. He should by cruising to reelection but Scott is a strong challenger which is why the race has stayed competitive.
Scott has never gotten more than 48.9% of the vote in an election. He has also never gotten more than 48% in any poll. In fact, if you remove internals (since FL Chamber polls are essentially that) he has never gotten more than 46% in a poll. He's not super strong, he just has money to blow.