CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I seriously went to bed last night expecting to see Sabato Crystal Ball make a big pack of ratings changes to the Democrats, and instead it is half and half, with not 1 of the ratings changes towards the Republicans making any sense, and several clear situations where there should have been ratings changes to the Democrats where no changes were made.

[Gass3268]

Much like Kenosha, GOP pulls off a bare win in Racine (50.8-49.2); was Trump +4 in 2016.

That's actually a pretty weak swing.

Racine county is essentially the Milwaukee Metro area condensed into one county. From east to west you have an liberal urban core (Racine) with a large number of minorities, conservative suburbs (Caledonia & Mount Pleasant), even more conservative rural townships (Dover, Norway, etc.), and then an working class increasingly conservative exurban city (Burlington). Democrats win the county by getting big margins and big turnout in the City of Racine, while keeping the margins respectable in the rest of the county. That just hasn't been happening since 2012.

Kenosha is different because while the City of Kenosha is less Democratic than the City of Racine, it makes up a larger % of the counties population. The Kenosha suburbs have less people and are more swingy (Democrats tend to win Pleasant Prairie if they are doing well in the county and statewide).

Also Kenosha is part of the Chicago metropolitan, but still part of the Milwaukee media market. Being more orientated towards Chicago, makes it more Democratically friendly than Racine which is all Milwaukee. A similar comparison is in Walworth County were Democrats tend to do better in the southern part of the county, while getting blown out in the northern tier of the county near Waukesha County (Whitewater being an obvious exception).

Hope that helps explain things.

[136or142]

I seriously went to bed last night expecting to see Sabato Crystal Ball make a big pack of ratings changes to the Democrats, and instead it is half and half, with not 1 of the ratings changes towards the Republicans making any sense, and several clear situations where there should have been ratings changes to the Democrats where no changes were made.

You are aware that candidates win races by getting the most votes and not by getting the prediction pundits?

I know the College Football championship used to be decided by a vote of journalists, but I think that's the only place that ever applied.

Seriously who cares what Sabato et al predict?

[Zaybay]

I seriously went to bed last night expecting to see Sabato Crystal Ball make a big pack of ratings changes to the Democrats, and instead it is half and half, with not 1 of the ratings changes towards the Republicans making any sense, and several clear situations where there should have been ratings changes to the Democrats where no changes were made.

You are aware that candidates win races by getting the most votes and not by getting the prediction pundits?

I know the College Football championship used to be decided by a vote of journalists, but I think that's the only place that ever applied.

Seriously who cares what Sabato et al predict?

I agree, these pundits are morons. You shouldnt take their word as the end all be all. They had MN as a tossup and moved it because Johnson won, not because of any other factor, but because Johnson won. OR is moved due to dud polling. RI isnt seen as a tough state for Ds even though polling from well established places see a tossup race. And, I cant stress this enough, MD can easily be won by the Ds if they consolidate the AA vote, which Jealous should be able to do.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

One thing I think some people need to be reminded of is that primary electorates on a county by county basis more so reflect the traditional and historical nature of the county rather than how it votes in general elections. We may see a sort of return to 2012-like political geography in some 2018 races but to say 2016 was a fluke and that Republicans are no longer going to win the Midwest is just plain delusion.

Who wins the Midwest is going to depend on what Democrats actually do. If they keep pursuing muh Suburban Strategy and ignoring the reality that working people in this country actually live in like they did in 2016, then yeah, it won't be a fluke. If they actually go back to trying to pretend to care about that stuff though, and are smart enough to point out that the GOP's ~populism is phony, they could easily regain it.

Yep, but we all know they are pursuing the former strategy. All this yapping about Russia and guns (as correct as their moral stance in that is, nobody in the rurals wants to hear it) will get them nowhere with the Obama-Trump voters they need.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quick Update on the still uncalled race for second place in WA-2:


Congressional District 2 - U.S. RepresentativeCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Collin Richard Carlson(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,985   7.71%
Uncle Mover(Prefers Moderate GOP Party)
11,750   7.56%
Brian Luke(Prefers Libertarian Party)
12,238   7.87%
Stonewall Jackson Bird (Stoney)(Prefers Green Party)
6,479   4.17%
Rick Larsen(Prefers Democratic Party)
100,863   64.87% will finish first
Gary Franco(Prefers Independent Party)
12,172   7.83%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   155,487   


At this point, I can officially project that Stonewall Jackson Bird, Uncle Mover, and Collin Richard Carlson will not advance to the next round. However, it remains too close to call between Gary Franco and Brian Luke. Approximately 906 votes remain in the counties in the district (though not all votes are in CD 2), and the bulk of those are in a county where Mr. Franco (who is in 3rd districtwide) leads Mr. Luke (who is in 2nd districtwide). With a difference of less than 100 votes districtwide, it remains much too close to call, and may remain such until the counting deadline on the 21st.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There's somebody named Uncle Mover?

[DINGO Joe]

There's somebody named Uncle Mover?

It is Seattle

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1030057706969812992

Democratic voting interest looks high in Florida this far.

[wesmoorenerd]

Quick Update on the still uncalled race for second place in WA-2:


Congressional District 2 - U.S. RepresentativeCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Collin Richard Carlson(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,985   7.71%
Uncle Mover(Prefers Moderate GOP Party)
11,750   7.56%
Brian Luke(Prefers Libertarian Party)
12,238   7.87%
Stonewall Jackson Bird (Stoney)(Prefers Green Party)
6,479   4.17%
Rick Larsen(Prefers Democratic Party)
100,863   64.87% will finish first
Gary Franco(Prefers Independent Party)
12,172   7.83%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   155,487   


At this point, I can officially project that Stonewall Jackson Bird, Uncle Mover, and Collin Richard Carlson will not advance to the next round. However, it remains too close to call between Gary Franco and Brian Luke. Approximately 906 votes remain in the counties in the district (though not all votes are in CD 2), and the bulk of those are in a county where Mr. Franco (who is in 3rd districtwide) leads Mr. Luke (who is in 2nd districtwide). With a difference of less than 100 votes districtwide, it remains much too close to call, and may remain such until the counting deadline on the 21st.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1030057706969812992

Democratic voting interest looks high in Florida this far.

I remember when Marc Caputo was blabbering on about there being no signs of Democratic enthusiasm in Florida.

[136or142]

There's somebody named Uncle Mover?

He's run multiple times before for both parties.  He used to be known as 'Mike the Mover.'

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1030057706969812992

Democratic voting interest looks high in Florida this far.

These results are also skewed by the fact that people like me are voting GOP so they lose

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1030057706969812992

Democratic voting interest looks high in Florida this far.

How does a 42% D, 39% R, 19% O electorate (total ballot figures from the tweet) compare to past cycles?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With only 106 remaining votes in the counties in the district (props to Skagit County for counting 800 votes over the last 24 hours), we have a winner for 2nd place in WA-2:


Congressional District 2 - U.S. RepresentativeCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Collin Richard Carlson(Prefers Democratic Party)
12,034   7.71%
Uncle Mover(Prefers Moderate GOP Party)
11,808   7.56%
Brian Luke(Prefers Libertarian Party)
12,301   7.88% will finish second
Stonewall Jackson Bird (Stoney)(Prefers Green Party)
6,505   4.17%
Rick Larsen(Prefers Democratic Party)
101,290   64.86% will finish first
Gary Franco(Prefers Independent Party)
12,235   7.83%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   156,173   

This concludes the Washington primaries.

[Virginiá]

I can't wait to vote tomorrow! I was considering doing absentee this cycle but decided to do it in-person since I like the traditional experience

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't wait to vote tomorrow! I was considering doing absentee this cycle but decided to do it in-person since I like the traditional experience

Who are you voting?

[Virginiá]

Dem ballot, for Graham. Too many wildcards with the others, imo.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dem ballot, for Graham. Too many wildcards with the others, imo.

What about ma boi Nelson?

Or is it one of those states where someone's name aint on the ballot if they are unopposed?

[Strudelcutie4427]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1030057706969812992

Democratic voting interest looks high in Florida this far.

These results are also skewed by the fact that people like me are voting GOP so they lose

Cuz your votes gonna make a huge difference right? I doubt anyone besides total political junkies do that anyway

[Donerail]

Gotten several texts from Levine's camp reminding me to vote, as well as an event invite from Gillum's team. No contact from the others.

[junior chįmp]

Gotten several texts from Levine's camp reminding me to vote, as well as an event invite from Gillum's team. No contact from the others.

I get like 3 emails a day from Levine...never gotten a single text, email, call, etc... from Graham. I'm guessing they just expect to win

[Lognog]

Gotten several texts from Levine's camp reminding me to vote, as well as an event invite from Gillum's team. No contact from the others.

I get like 3 emails a day from Levine...never gotten a single text, email, call, etc... from Graham. I'm guessing they just expect to win

the polling has really tightened up between Graham and Levine the last few weeks, it's a total toss up

[Zaybay]

Gotten several texts from Levine's camp reminding me to vote, as well as an event invite from Gillum's team. No contact from the others.

I get like 3 emails a day from Levine...never gotten a single text, email, call, etc... from Graham. I'm guessing they just expect to win

the polling has really tightened up between Graham and Levine the last few weeks, it's a total toss up

at this point, the race in FL looks like a complete tossup, any of the top three candidates can win. It all depends on how this week stands.
Graham needs to maintain her lead.
Levine needs to pull off enough Greene voters.
Gillum needs to use his newfound money and endorsement to pound the airwaves and peel of Graham, Levine, and Greene voters.
The race is in a week from now, and its anyone's game.

[Lognog]

Gotten several texts from Levine's camp reminding me to vote, as well as an event invite from Gillum's team. No contact from the others.

I get like 3 emails a day from Levine...never gotten a single text, email, call, etc... from Graham. I'm guessing they just expect to win

the polling has really tightened up between Graham and Levine the last few weeks, it's a total toss up

at this point, the race in FL looks like a complete tossup, any of the top three candidates can win. It all depends on how this week stands.
Graham needs to maintain her lead.
Levine needs to pull off enough Greene voters.
Gillum needs to use his newfound money and endorsement to pound the airwaves and peel of Graham, Levine, and Greene voters.
The race is in a week from now, and its anyone's game.

I don't think Gillum has much of a chance and I think his new money will take more votes away from Graham than Levine