CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Zaybay]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

What evidence is this based on? There was poll out a couple months back on Democratic voters  preference of candidate types. The majority want candidates like Barack Obama, not candidates like Bernie Sanders.

The hard truth that some on the left have to accept is that they don't make up the majority of the Democratic base.

That doesnt disprove what I said. In fact, Im not arguing for Sander Candidates. Im arguing that the argument of electability will die, and it will become obsolete when arguing who should win. Also, Obama is still a large icon to the entire D party, while Sanders is an icon to most of the D party, so that makes sense. A better question, even though I hate to bring this up,.....would be to ask do you want a candidate like Clinton or like Sanders, cause thats an actual debate that the D party has been having. Obama, however, is highly regarded by the D party, and many emotions of Obama are inflated due to the Trump presidency, like how Bush's approval increased when he left office.

Except there is no evidence that electability is a driving cause for many Democratic voters. No offense, but this just sounds like an excuse for why non-establishment type candidates keep losing to the establishment.

There has not been any poll that tests this idea, but there is a lot of evidence for my idea. Twitter posts, the type of candidate that wins, voter polls, this entire forum, news articles, etc. It also makes sense in a narrative sense, with Dems always saying "stay united" "vote D, no matter what" "A D that votes with you % of the time is better than an R who votes % of the time", its clear that Dems are set on winning, and dont want to splinter. So if you are a D voter, would you rather support your favorite candidate, or the one who has the better chance of winning? Judging by the evidence, its seems like a major issue for Ds.

Also, I am not hating on the establishment. It should be noted that the electability question has elected non-establishment candidates, such as Eastman, Balter, Lipinski(the D establishment was behind Newman), etc. The establishment can come up with great candidates, and some are more Left than the outsider candidate. I just hate the idea of justifying a vote with "they are more electable", thats all.

[Pyro]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

Unfortunately, without the pressure of taking Congress or stopping Trump, most D voters won't vote.

wouldnt that benefit your/our side? If the only voters who show up to the primary are the enthused voters "aka us", wont our candidates do better?

Well, if progressive victories depends on low turnout, then the messaging needs to evolve.

The way to discard the 'electability' mindset is to prove through example that left pols do better than centrists. The Catch 22 is that it's impossible to prove the capabilities of a progressive string of candidates if they're unable to win in the primaries first.

[Zaybay]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

Unfortunately, without the pressure of taking Congress or stopping Trump, most D voters won't vote.

wouldnt that benefit your/our side? If the only voters who show up to the primary are the enthused voters "aka us", wont our candidates do better?

Well, if progressive victories depends on low turnout, then the messaging needs to evolve.

The way to discard the 'electability' mindset is to prove through example that left pols do better than centrists. The Catch 22 is that it's impossible to prove the capabilities of a progressive string of candidates if they're unable to win in the primaries first.

your correct, its one of the reasons I wanted Welder to win. But, oh well. We'll get another shot.

In fact, we do have some candidates already that can disprove it, Eastman and Balter being the ones that come to mind first.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I will first note for the record that as shown by the SOS, Stabenow did have a nominal primary against write-ins. The turnout margin is virtually the same as the governor's race, so the map posted earlier remains accurate. https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/2018PRI_CENR.html

Also, it's official: We have different nominees in MI-13 Regular and MI-13 Special:

13th District Representative in Congress 2 Year Term (1) Position Files In WAYNE County   1/1 Counties
Votes   Percent   
Democratic
Conyers, Ian   5,861   6.57%   
 
Democratic
Jackson, Shanelle   4,848   5.44%   
 
Democratic
Jones, Brenda   26,916   30.18%   
 
Democratic
Tlaib, Rashida   27,803   31.18%   
 
Democratic
Wild, Bill   12,589   14.12%   
 
Democratic
Young, II, Coleman A.   11,162   12.52%   
 
Total Votes:   89,179

      
13th District Representative in Congress Partial Term Ending 01/02/2019 (1) Position Files In WAYNE County   1/1 Counties
Votes   Percent   
Democratic
Conyers, Ian   9,740   11.23%   
 
Democratic
Jones, Brenda   32,727   37.75%   
 
Democratic
Tlaib, Rashida   31,084   35.85%   
 
Democratic
Wild, Bill   13,152   15.17%   
 
Total Votes:   86,703

--------------------

We now know the (apparent) outcomes of all the primaries aside from a few contests for 2nd place in Washington which could take several days or even a week to know.      

[Sestak]

Zaybay, I’d modify your categorization. Having “left”, “center”, and “right” as subcategories are confusing. Maybe “soft”, “standard”, and “Hard”? Then we’d have

Hard DS
Standard DS
Soft DS
Hard Progressive
Standard Progressive
Soft Progressive
Hard Liberal
Standard Liberal
Soft Liberal
Centrist
Center-Conservative
Conservative

(The last three form what you have as the conservative spectrum)

[Zaybay]

Zaybay, I’d modify your categorization. Having “left”, “center”, and “right” as subcategories are confusing. Maybe “soft”, “standard”, and “Hard”? Then we’d have

Hard DS
Standard DS
Soft DS
Hard Progressive
Standard Progressive
Soft Progressive
Hard Liberal
Standard Liberal
Soft Liberal
Centrist
Center-Conservative
Conservative

(The last three form what you have as the conservative spectrum)

Interesting, this is very good. Thanks! I just need to specify what each category is, and then we can definitively figure out which candidates are where on the D ideological spectrum.

Im thinking the bottom three would have moderate/conservative views on Economics and Social. Liberal could be moderate/left on one category, and moderate/conservative on the other. Progressive is  moderate/left on both categories, and DS is left on both. What do you think?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

America, your democracy is a joke.

[IceSpear]

Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

UPPER MICHIGAN (WLUC) - Democrat Matt Morgan says unofficial vote counts from Tuesday's primary show he will be on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November's general election.

According to Morgan's campaign, unofficial vote counts from 20 counties in the 32-county district indicate there were 20,000-plus write-in votes cast in the Democratic race for Congress. Morgan is the only candidate running as a write-in. Grand Traverse County alone had well over 7,000 write-in votes cast for a Democrat in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. In 2014, zero write-in votes were cast in Grand Traverse County in that race.

In a formula set by the State of Michigan, Morgan must receive at least five percent of the total ballots cast in the race with the most votes in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 1st. For example, if this year’s gubernatorial race had 100,000 votes cast (which would be up 30-plus percent from historic midterm primary averages), the threshold for Morgan to make the general election ballot would be 5,000.

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Morgan--490332281.html

Great news. This district is a long shot (putting it mildly) but it's still nice to have a warm body there just in case.

[Progressive Pessimist]

2018 is not the time for ideological purity tests.

[MAINEiac4434]

huh, Kerry Bentivolio was running in MI-11 and finished last.

[MAINEiac4434]

Jones COULD serve her two-month term without resigning her City Council position IF she gets special approval from the House Ethics Committee: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2018/08/08/jones-resign-council-serve-congress/934999002/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ready to call the second place finisher in the WA Judicial Primary:

Court of Appeals, Division 1, District 3 - Judge Position 1County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Tom SeGuine
23,837   27.25% finishes first
Lisa Keeler
19,851   22.69%
Cecily Hazelrigg-Hernandez
21,178   24.21% finishes second
Roger Leishman
8,378   9.58%
Rita Latsinova
14,241   16.28%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   87,485   

Still too close to call for the second slot in CDs 2, 8 and 9.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1027604657521258496

[Chief Justice Keef]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

[Zaybay]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

But muh Hillary lost cuz Col. Sanders.

Its really a double standard TBH, when a lefty wins, the moderates throw a fit, refuse to endorse, and make life harder for us. But when a moderate wins, and we dont support them 100%, then we are called traitors and jerks. Its terrible.

[wesmoorenerd]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

[smoltchanov]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

[ON Progressive]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

[wesmoorenerd]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

With all due respect, you clearly know nothing about Montgomery County. It's decidedly not progressive, which is the only reason there's been so much pushback to Elrich. There are a few reasons why it's so partisan. A good portion of the county is comprised of DC metro area government workers, who have a vested interest in voting for the party that doesn't want to make their lives harder. Not to mention the county is fairly urbanized despite technically being suburban, which obviously improves the Democrats' standing. You can knock Montgomery County for plenty of different flaws, but one thing it's most assuredly not is full of brainless political partisans. People here have good reasons for voting D.

[smoltchanov]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

I neved tried to hide it...

[smoltchanov]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

With all due respect, you clearly know nothing about Montgomery County. It's decidedly not progressive, which is the only reason there's been so much pushback to Elrich. There are a few reasons why it's so partisan. A good portion of the county is comprised of DC metro area government workers, who have a vested interest in voting for the party that doesn't want to make their lives harder. Not to mention the county is fairly urbanized despite technically being suburban, which obviously improves the Democrats' standing. You can knock Montgomery County for plenty of different flaws, but one thing it's most assuredly not is full of brainless political partisans. People here have good reasons for voting D.

I know much more then you think, as i follow this particular county and it's politics since late 1970th. And i liked it much more THEN, then now. It was mostly Democratic even then, but word "mostly" is a key, as it was very open to voting for Charles Mathias or Connie Morella or other like them. But now - excuse me. What i see it's a standard and extremely boring fights between "establishment liberals" and "bold progressives", and nothing more...

[TheSaint250]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

Has it ever occurred to you people that Democratic voters are already voting for the candidates they like?

Yes, but many are also voting for elect-ability's sake. Look at any of the posts here, any twitter posts, ask any D voters, and you will hear this phrase. "Yeah, I really like X, but Y is more electable, so Im voting for Y. Dont want to lose this race". Without the pressure of having to win the house/senate to stop Trump, D voters will be able to vote for candidates they like, without worrying about their elect-ability.

What evidence is this based on? There was poll out a couple months back on Democratic voters  preference of candidate types. The majority want candidates like Barack Obama, not candidates like Bernie Sanders.

The hard truth that some on the left have to accept is that they don't make up the majority of the Democratic base.

https://www.newsweek.com/majority-democrats-want-candidates-more-bernie-sanders-poll-1019025

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There could be other factors, not necessarily policy-based, that made people choose Bernie-like candidates, but it's still something to keep in mind.

On the contrary, as many have pointed out, Bernie-style candidates are not doing particularly well right now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A Sanders-like candidate might sound good in the abstract, but not so good when a flesh-and-blood person stands before you and asks for your vote.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Well that's what we ned and I'll take en smug or not smug