CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[smoltchanov]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Thank you, Sir! I expected exactly this from "proud socialist"))))

[Crumpets]

huh, Kerry Bentivolio was running in MI-11 and finished last.

I still don't understand why that district wasn't competitive when he was the Republican nominee.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about splitting this episode of the Great Moderate vs Progressive Debate into its own thread?

[Virginiá]

Not worth splitting off. Just did some housecleaning instead.

Please take posts about previous argument to a new thread.

[Virginiá]

For gods sakes people, please stop. Don't reply to smoltchanov, and smoltchanov, it's ok to just ignore some replies. We all, or rather, most of us, do that from time to time.

I'd prefer that this series of arguments dies on its own rather than me having to come back and prune more and more posts every couple hours. It's highly annoying, but I'll keep doing it if I have to.


(talking to the authors of the 3 posts I just deleted)

[smoltchanov]

For gods sakes people, please stop. Don't reply to smoltchanov, and smoltchanov, it's ok to just ignore some replies. We all, or rather, most of us, do that from time to time.

I'd prefer that this series of arguments dies on its own rather than me having to come back and prune more and more posts every couple hours. It's highly annoying, but I'll keep doing it if I have to.


(talking to the authors of the 3 posts I just deleted)

Ok.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ready to make another call in Washington:

Congressional District 9 - U.S. RepresentativeCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Doug Basler(Prefers Republican Party)
34,830   24.76%
Sarah Smith(Prefers Democratic Party)
37,412   26.6% finishes second
Adam Smith(Prefers Democratic Party)
68,409   48.64% finishes first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   140,651   

Still too close to call for 2nd place in CDs 2 and 8.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And another call is ready to go:


Congressional District 8 - U.S. RepresentativeCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Dino Rossi(Prefers GOP Party)
70,854   43.22% finishes first
Jason Rittereiser(Prefers Democratic Party)
29,596   18.05%
Keith Arnold(Prefers Independent)*(No Party)
1,053   0.64%
Bill Grassie(Prefers Indep. Centrist Party)
1,108   0.68%
Kim Schrier(Prefers Democratic Party)
30,663   18.7% finishes second
Todd Mahaffey(States No Party Preference)
648   0.4%
Jack Hughes-Hageman(Prefers The Republican Party)
4,141   2.53%
Shannon Hader(Prefers Democratic Party)
20,513   12.51%
Tom Cramer(Prefers Democratic Party)
1,417   0.86%
Gordon Allen Pross(Prefers Republican Party)
1,998   1.22%
Patrick Dillon(Prefers Neither Major Party)
857   0.52%
Richard Travis Reyes(Prefers Libertarian Party)
1,099   0.67%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   163,947   

This leaves the 2nd slot in CD 2 uncalled. Don't expect me to call that race until Thursday or Friday of next week because it is so ridiculously close.

[MAINEiac4434]

huh, Kerry Bentivolio was running in MI-11 and finished last.

I still don't understand why that district wasn't competitive when he was the Republican nominee.

He did lose the special election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

huh, Kerry Bentivolio was running in MI-11 and finished last.

I still don't understand why that district wasn't competitive when he was the Republican nominee.

He did lose the special election.

Also, while a 51-44 Republican win in the regular election isn't exactly competitive, it is closer than what we got in 2010, 2014, and 2016.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hawaii Results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/11/us/elections/results-hawaii-primary-elections.html

Polls will close at Midnight ET, but don't expect results until around 1 AM ET.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm gonna lmao so hard if all em asians running in the democratic primary for Hawaii 1st tonight all split up the vote making that haole Case win lol.

[MAINEiac4434]

With turnout reportedly low as hell, I think whoever has the most excitement surrounding their candidacy will win. So...Hanabusa in the Gov?

[Zaybay]

Turnout appears to be abysmal this year, one of the worst. This gives an advantage to candidates that have more enthusiasm in their campaign, which would be Ing in HI-01, Gabbard's opponent Sherry in HI-02, and....Im not sure in the governor race, but Ill say Hanabusa.

There could be surprising results, but I still think its likely nothing changes in any of the races.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Turnout appears to be abysmal this year, one of the worst. This gives an advantage to candidates that have more enthusiasm in their campaign, which would be Ing in HI-01, Gabbard's opponent Sherry in HI-02, and....Im not sure in the governor race, but Ill say Hanabusa.

There could be surprising results, but I still think its likely nothing changes in any of the races.

Ing and Hanabusa winning is definitely realistic, but Gabbard losinng this isn't lol.

[Zaybay]

Turnout appears to be abysmal this year, one of the worst. This gives an advantage to candidates that have more enthusiasm in their campaign, which would be Ing in HI-01, Gabbard's opponent Sherry in HI-02, and....Im not sure in the governor race, but Ill say Hanabusa.

There could be surprising results, but I still think its likely nothing changes in any of the races.

Ing and Hanabusa winning is definitely realistic, but Gabbard losinng this isn't lol.

I just think they may get a bump, or be closer than expected. I still think Case and Ige will win, but with the current predicted turnout, Im not so sure


Also, to everyone, the current predicted turnout for this race is 18%

[NewYorkExpress]

Turnout appears to be abysmal this year, one of the worst. This gives an advantage to candidates that have more enthusiasm in their campaign, which would be Ing in HI-01, Gabbard's opponent Sherry in HI-02, and....Im not sure in the governor race, but Ill say Hanabusa.

There could be surprising results, but I still think its likely nothing changes in any of the races.

Ing and Hanabusa winning is definitely realistic, but Gabbard losinng this isn't lol.

I would think Gabbard would get whatever pro-Sanders vote there is in HI-02, and that's usually who would turnout in a very low turnout election... Plus I still Hanabusa was a narrow favorite coming into tonight, though Ige winning wouldn't shock me after his much better response to the volcano eruption.

[Oryxslayer]

With reports of low turnout, there is probably a significant turnout gap between HI-01 and HI-02 because of the primary's there. Might boost Hanabusa if Honolulu is marginally voting more then the rest of the Islands.

[Devout Centrist]

[Zaybay]

Finally! Its happening, and it looks like Hanabusa is off to a great lead.

[Devout Centrist]

Finally! Its happening, and it looks like Hanabusa is off to a great lead.

Lmao, sorry it just updated

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally! Its happening, and it looks like Hanabusa is off to a great lead.

Peak atlas stuff

[Zaybay]

Wow, that was quick. This race will (hopefully) be close.

[Zaybay]

annnnnd based on Vox, it seems that Case will win HI-01 and Gabbard HI-02.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow Gabbard destroyed that lame person lol