CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[IceSpear]

Just got home from voting. Turnout looks very low. I was number 13 at my precinct. Was number 38 in the primary and voted at the same time.

Which district do you live in?

[IceSpear]

I hope Roby crushes the turncoat Nancy Pelosi voter.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Roby won. She's way outperforming her first round margins everywhere.

Somewhere, Nancy Patricia D'Alesandro Pelosi is smiling.

[IceSpear]

I hope Courtland Sykes wins the MO-Sen Republican primary.

I hope I hit the lottery.

[IceSpear]

someone gonna make this wulfric call their sig as well as last time with Lazer in PA?

That was me, but I like my current sig too much to change it.

[IceSpear]

Handel and Woodall are safe, but they are both going to get a scare. Especially Woodall.

Why do you think Woodall is more vulnerable than Handel?

[IceSpear]

Also, how come Kemp won so massively? Did anyone see that coming? I thought Cagle was favored.

Kemp had been favoured ever since the tapes of him admitting to supporting education policies he knew were bad and describing the campaign as "who could be the craziest" came out. This made him be not only seen as corrupt, it also made him viewed as someone who hated voters at the same time.

The tapes meant he was already toast, but the Trump endorsement of Kemp made sure it was going to be a massive blowout.

So Mr. Points-a-gun-at-a-teenager somehow ended up as the least damaged candidate in the race? Amazing. What a clown car.

Seriously, if Democrats can't win Georgia this year, it means it's unwinnable.

Those ads didn't damage Kemp at all. They helped him. What people in NYC or LA thought about them is irrelevant.

[IceSpear]

Also, how come Kemp won so massively? Did anyone see that coming? I thought Cagle was favored.

Kemp had been favoured ever since the tapes of him admitting to supporting education policies he knew were bad and describing the campaign as "who could be the craziest" came out. This made him be not only seen as corrupt, it also made him viewed as someone who hated voters at the same time.

The tapes meant he was already toast, but the Trump endorsement of Kemp made sure it was going to be a massive blowout.

So Mr. Points-a-gun-at-a-teenager somehow ended up as the least damaged candidate in the race? Amazing. What a clown car.

Seriously, if Democrats can't win Georgia this year, it means it's unwinnable.

Those ads didn't damage Kemp at all. They helped him. What people in NYC or LA thought about them is irrelevant.

No, they definitely damaged him. Kemp lost the first round by a large margin. The thing was, however, is that Cagle in the first round was a moderate Lt. Gov, but in the runoff, he became a corrupt, inauthentic career politician. And Cagle was still making it close, according to polling....until Trump endorsed Kemp, which caused Cagle to collapse.

Kemp's polling improved after the ads got publicity and was what got him a solid spot in the runoff to begin with.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_republican_primary-6286.html

And polls aside, it is just common sense that Georgia Republicans would love those ads. He wasn't trying to appeal to Atlanta liberals.

[IceSpear]

I'm rooting for Basil Marceaux. He represents the average Tennessee Republican far better than any of these elitist politicians do.

https://youtu.be/1hvaeHllwtw

[IceSpear]

Pence is so worthless, LOL.

It amazes me people think he has any pull whatsoever.

[IceSpear]

What's up with Shelby County? Despite having "100% in" the victor has flipped three times, from Boyd to Lee to Black.

[IceSpear]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

[IceSpear]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

I thought that was Motormouth Marsha.

[IceSpear]

Kevin Yoder is safe because he won in 2010.

[IceSpear]

Wow, Abdul leading in Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor).

Not sure if that's surprising, not sure if only being up 5% will do it.

It's a bit surprising. But correct me if I'm wrong, it's one of the places he should theoretically be doing best right?

[IceSpear]

So far, there's lots of protest votes against Hawley but very little against McCaskill, which is kind of interesting.

[IceSpear]

Don't look now, but the "safe R" seat of WA-03 is looking extremely competitive at the moment.

[IceSpear]

And for the "likely R" seat of WA-05, Lisa Brown is currently thumping Cathy McMorris Rodgers in Spokane County, and is ahead in the overall count at the moment.

[IceSpear]

Cantwell looks set to match or exceed her 2012 margin, which is obviously no shock, except for people that overreacted to that one poll, lol.

[IceSpear]

I mean, primary results aren't the be-all end-all, but yeah, these results look terrible for Republicans.

Democrats typically do a tick better in the general than they do in the jungle primary, so...

Republicans' main hope right now is that there's still lots of votes left to count.

Reminder that all the pundits think WA-03 is "safe R" and that AZ-09, CA-24, CT-05, NV-04, and NH-02 are only "likely D." What utter morons these "experts" are.

[IceSpear]

WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

This was a realistic pickup months ago...

Not according to the pundits. They think it is "likely R."

And they think WA-03, where Dems are currently ahead in the combined D/R vote share, is "safe R." lol

[IceSpear]

There is a high correlation between jungle primary performance in states like WA with the eventual GE result. Most of the time the Dems actually do slightly better in the GE compared to the primary, but the results rarely differ drastically. Anybody comparing this to regular primary turnout has no idea what they're talking about.

[IceSpear]

LOL, beautiful flawless Dino Rossi at only 43%.

Atlas and the pundits told me he'd make the race a toss up, maybe even lean R. How can this be?!

If only Greedo was here. lol

[IceSpear]

Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

UPPER MICHIGAN (WLUC) - Democrat Matt Morgan says unofficial vote counts from Tuesday's primary show he will be on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November's general election.

According to Morgan's campaign, unofficial vote counts from 20 counties in the 32-county district indicate there were 20,000-plus write-in votes cast in the Democratic race for Congress. Morgan is the only candidate running as a write-in. Grand Traverse County alone had well over 7,000 write-in votes cast for a Democrat in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. In 2014, zero write-in votes were cast in Grand Traverse County in that race.

In a formula set by the State of Michigan, Morgan must receive at least five percent of the total ballots cast in the race with the most votes in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 1st. For example, if this year’s gubernatorial race had 100,000 votes cast (which would be up 30-plus percent from historic midterm primary averages), the threshold for Morgan to make the general election ballot would be 5,000.

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Morgan--490332281.html

Great news. This district is a long shot (putting it mildly) but it's still nice to have a warm body there just in case.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Paul Ryan campaigned for his body double.



Aww, they even color coordinated their wardrobe! How adorable.