CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

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Looks like both will be very close.

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Georgia 6 just jumped from around 11,000 votes to 48,000 votes.  Is that even possible?

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All right, so I did some research, and it seems the main differences between the candidates are

-The females in the race, Mcbath and Bourdeaux were endorsed by Emily's list

- The males in the race are running as bipartisan consensus builders

Other than that, it seems the female candidates are the stronger candidates in both districts

Lucy McBath has been running as a one issue candidate while Kevin Abel has the support of some of the business community in the district.

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Any possibility David Kustoff loses to George Flinn? 

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If Ellen Lipton loses to Andy Levin would it be fair to say she lost because she wasn't everybody's cup of tea?

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Of f**king course Whitmer won. F**k this.

What issue do you have with Whitmer? She supports a $15 minimum wage, led the fights to expand Medicaid and opposing RTW, and is a long time labor union ally. Is El-Sayed to her left? Yes. Is she a useless mushy centrist? No.

She doesn't have a penis.

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Why is Kansas City, Kansas coming in so slowly?

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One precinct in for KS-03:

Brent Welder 30    37.5%   

Sharice Davids 27   33.8   

Tom Niermann 12   15.0   

Sylvia Williams 6   7.5   

Mike McCamon 4   5.0   

Jay Sidie 1   1.3

This is the Kansas City based district.

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WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

This was a realistic pickup months ago...

Not according to the pundits. They think it is "likely R."

And they think WA-03, where Dems are currently ahead in the combined D/R vote share, is "safe R." lol

You should have heard the King County online T.V coverage.  "It's not like Lisa Brown even ran to the center.  She ran petty far left.  She even spoke about poverty."

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It's just one data point but it's interesting that Tlaib leads by 5,500 for the general election but by only 1,500 for the special election (where there are less candidates on the ballot.)  This may suggest that the further left Democrats aren't likely to get the votes of those who aren't further left.

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I'm rooting for Davids, just because Welder is a Young Turks fan. That's basically the only reason.

That's plenty reason.

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It's just one data point but it's interesting that Tlaib leads by 5,500 for the general election but by only 1,500 for the special election (where there are less candidates on the ballot.)  This may suggest that the further left Democrats aren't likely to get the votes of those who areN'T further left.

It's a race thing, Coleman Young & Shanelle Jackson (the two candidates not on the special election ballot) are both black. So is Brenda Jones.

That's the most likely explanation.

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RIP Washington GOP. More Democratic votes in every single district.

True, but the most Republican district wasn't on the ballot.  Also, as in California, there are still some thousands of votes left to be counted.

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Special election to complete the rest of the term

36.6%   Brenda Jones   28,858   
36.6%   Rashida Tlaib   28,858   
15.8%   Bill Wild   12,480   
10.9%   Ian Conyers   8,592   
95.7% of precincts reporting (399/417)
78,788 total vote

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Anyone know if Matt Morgan's write-in campaign was successful?

1ST DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Watersmeet, was running unopposed in his party's primary. On the Democratic side, Matt Morgan failed to make the party ticket and was trying to win a write-in bid. (We won't know whether he does so until all the votes are counted: To get the nomination, he'll need to get a number of write-in votes equal to at least 5 percent of the total number of the top Democratic vote-getter — regardless of the office he or she is running for — in the district.)

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/08/07/michigan-primary-heres-what-we-know-election-night/897968002/

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The tie is broken, Jones is now leading in the special primary while trailing (by 3,500 votes) in the general primary.

The general primary has been called for Tlaib. The special primary is still uncalled.

I guess it means she'd win the majority support from the candidates who were only in the general race.

Also, why is Ron Estes running against Ron Estes in KS-4 according to NYT?

Representative (Congressman) Ron Estes is running against Ron M. Estes who bills himself as 'the real Ron Estes.'

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The tie is broken, Jones is now leading in the special primary while trailing (by 3,500 votes) in the general primary.

The general primary has been called for Tlaib. The special primary is still uncalled.

I guess it means she'd win the majority support from the candidates who were only in the general race.

Also, why is Ron Estes running against Ron Estes in KS-4 according to NYT?

Representative (Congressman) Ron Estes is running against Ron M. Estes who bills himself as 'the real Ron Estes.'

Huh. Iconic tbh.

It's too bad he didn't win.  It's not often that a Republican with a decent sense of humor comes along.

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The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

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The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

The days when the Republicans had a liberal faction and the Democrats had a conservative faction are long gone.

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The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS.

What is a "Conservative"? People like Dianne Feinstein? Then i will have a very good laugh...

Joe Donnelly
Heidi Heitkamp
Joe Manchin

Nothing conservative. Center to Left-of-center people. I would understand if someone would call Boren or McIntyre or Matheson "a conservative", but only barely with adjective "moderate" before this word. The last Democrat i could simply call a "conservative" was, probably, Ralph Hall

Then it may be your definition of "Conservative" that is messed up, because these guys are not center-left, they are center/center-tilt-right, which is the Conservative faction of the Dems.

Among "Present day Democrats" that may be "right", but only among "present day". On a general common idrological scale they are not "conservative" at all...

The days when the Republicans had a liberal faction and the Democrats had a conservative faction are long gone.

If so - almost any interest to study US politics evaporates almost immediately. It's boring when one party is an army of Barbara Lee clones, another - Jim Jordan's

I never wrote or implied any such thing. Take a look at the debates here, there is still a lot of diversity in the Democratic Party and even still some in the Republican Party.  There should be a lot more in the Republican Party but they're so top down and authoritarian that the likes of a Justin Amash who actually stands up for his beliefs (whether common sensical or goofy) is very rare.

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WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - MI:

U.S. House District 11 »
Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Haley Stevens
23,997   27.0%
Tim Greimel
19,317   21.8
Suneel Gupta
18,873   21.3
Fayrouz Saad
17,294   19.5
Nancy Skinner
9,234   10.4
88,715 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Lena Epstein
26,119   30.7%
Rocky Raczkowski
21,618   25.4
Mike Kowall
15,761   18.6
Klint Kesto
11,879   14.0
Kerry Bentivolio
9,584   11.3
84,961 votes, 100% reporting (291 of 291 precincts)

You can't make a projection when all the votes have been counted!

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If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

Lots of people, especially younger and in my age bracket, seem to think that if there's one progressive in a race, especially a Bernie-endorsed progressive, then every other candidate must be a conservative, neoliberal backed by shady donors.

And many left wing economists and their twitter followers.

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Matt Morgan is claiming victory in his MI-01 D write-in bid, though we may not know officially for weeks.

UPPER MICHIGAN (WLUC) - Democrat Matt Morgan says unofficial vote counts from Tuesday's primary show he will be on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jack Bergman in November's general election.

According to Morgan's campaign, unofficial vote counts from 20 counties in the 32-county district indicate there were 20,000-plus write-in votes cast in the Democratic race for Congress. Morgan is the only candidate running as a write-in. Grand Traverse County alone had well over 7,000 write-in votes cast for a Democrat in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District. In 2014, zero write-in votes were cast in Grand Traverse County in that race.

In a formula set by the State of Michigan, Morgan must receive at least five percent of the total ballots cast in the race with the most votes in the Democratic primary in Michigan’s 1st. For example, if this year’s gubernatorial race had 100,000 votes cast (which would be up 30-plus percent from historic midterm primary averages), the threshold for Morgan to make the general election ballot would be 5,000.

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Morgan--490332281.html

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What time is it in Hawaii right now?

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What time is it in Hawaii right now?

Almost 8 PM

Thanks. The polls close early there.