CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just got home from voting. Turnout looks very low. I was number 13 at my precinct. Was number 38 in the primary and voted at the same time.

Wasn't turnout for the runoff like 4% or something ridiculously low in 2014?

I don't remember exactly what it was but I'm pretty sure it was below 10%. Which is pretty ridiculous.

Who did you vote for?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ah, I thought Marshall would get sumpathy votes for his wife dying though. I want him to win since he seems like the weaker candidate though. If you were in AL 2 who would you vote for Bright or Roby?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can now project the race for Roby.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I can now project the race for Roby.

quoted in case you're wrong.

Sorry Wulfric .

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Roy Moore be like walkings into McDonalds and hollers can I get a kids meal with extra kids.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

GO ABEL & KIM!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

someone gonna make this wulfric call their sig as well as last time with Lazer in PA?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kevin Abel was the guy that said that a white person should represent GA-06, because it's a majority white district. I'm sure candidates like Lauren Underwood, Colin Allred, Andy Kim, and Antonio Delgado would disagree.

Yeah, I'm glad he lost.

That's a stretch my friend. I interpreted that in a different light. McBath is fairly far left and really just about guns but Abel is a more moderate neolib pro business local endorsed by some business groups centrist. He fits the district much better, not white or black or woman or man or whatever other stuff you might say about identity that is non controllable, he just fits the district better, don't make it into that he was doing a personal attack on her identity.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Blackburn is gonna castrate Bredesen 53-45 now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Blackburn is gonna castrate Bredesen 53-45 now.

Lmao why has this primary changed your mind even?

Who said it has

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So looks like we won Shelby County (duh) and flipped some offices there, good. Of course we won, it takes disaster tier dem candidates to lose a majority black county lol, but the margins we got out of shelby tonight were absolutely pathetic, We should be winning by more than teen mov's in Shelby County TN.

The margins don't matter because....

ITT Tender shows his lack of understanding of Southern politics and primaries.

In the vast majority of TN - both geographically and population-wise - the GOP rules. Everywhere else, Dems already dominate; virtually no competitive areas. That's important to understand in the context of primaries, as many voters from the opposing party vote in the dominant party's primary for influence. However, throughout most of the South, it's a one-way affair; i.e. GOP voters in Democratic areas vote in the GOP primary, and DEM voters in GOP areas also vote in the GOP primary. That's because the GOP top-ticket contests are always either important or contested, whereas the DEM contests aren't. That's why GOP ballots are 43% in Shelby County, 70% in Knox County, 74% in Williamson County and 5-15 points more GOP than in general elections everywhere else.

With nothing remotely competitive at the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary, of course practically every GOP voter + like one-third of Dems are going to pull a GOP ballot. It's very important to also point out that a huge element of this trend has nothing to do with whether DEM/GOP primaries have contested top-ticket races: much of it is fueled by local offices. People want to influence who is going to represent them, and in the vast majority of TN, that means voting in the GOP primary to pick the de-facto winner. This happens almost everywhere in the South, and it's nothing new.

A little-known secret is that 20-25% of Southern GOP primary voters in open states are actually Democrats, lol.

I'm even talking about the GE's in Shelby County TN today, very sad margins for us.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very sad that I missed the primary

Here are my thoughts

1. Feel both bad and good about Diane losing. She was pretty insufferable, and hated the fact that she was a woman. But she also liked "Africa", and was an easier opponent. And I feel bad about how far she feel.

2. The Democratic numbers were great, around a 50% increase! Now, the Bagels of the world will try to say this is bad, but, as Griff mentions, this is much better than previously thought.

3. It seems the Dems had very easy primaries, and picked excellent candidates. Lets see how they do this November.

They will both lose barring Mooreings

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

As long as it's not Thanedar I'll be happy.

I mean yeah, Thanedar is a f***king cancer, but Whitmer is meh and exactly the wrong kind of candidate to reconquer the Midwest for Democrats.

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

And Whitmer is not "OMG HILLARY CLONE" like some "Bernie Bros" think. She has a lot of pro-labor credentials. Plus she's led in every poll.

I am a muslim and I agree with this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lmao what

Wow, I kinda want Jones just to win the special race just for the novelty of it lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lmao what

Wow, I kinda want Jones just to win the special race just for the novelty of it lol.

With the general primary all but decided, I'm definitely rooting for Jones to win the special primary just so she's a congressperson for six weeks. It's called pulling a Curson.

Wow, that's pretty awesome, time for a repeat!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also haha @ me thinking Ian Conyers was the favorite cuz of muah name rec. He is getting clobbered...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, a 16 year old high school student got nearly 3% in the Kansas governor dem primary lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

The smugness of moderate heroism is reeking out of this post.

Well that's what we ned and I'll take en smug or not smug

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm gonna lmao so hard if all em asians running in the democratic primary for Hawaii 1st tonight all split up the vote making that haole Case win lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Turnout appears to be abysmal this year, one of the worst. This gives an advantage to candidates that have more enthusiasm in their campaign, which would be Ing in HI-01, Gabbard's opponent Sherry in HI-02, and....Im not sure in the governor race, but Ill say Hanabusa.

There could be surprising results, but I still think its likely nothing changes in any of the races.

Ing and Hanabusa winning is definitely realistic, but Gabbard losinng this isn't lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally! Its happening, and it looks like Hanabusa is off to a great lead.

Peak atlas stuff

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow Gabbard destroyed that lame person lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gabbard Gabbard Gabbard!! Hip hip hurrah! Hip hip hurrah! Hip hip hurrah!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Excellent so far. Campagna is destroyed, Case is winning. And i always was for maligned and written off Ige. Time to open champaigne, probably!

But not Campagna oooooohhhhhh!