CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[wesmoorenerd]

So are the California results basically official now?

Pretty much, according to the Secretary of State website they finished processing the last ballots three days ago.

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Rooting for Carolyn Boudreaux and Lucy McBath.

All four of the Dem runoff candidates seem pretty good. What's your take in terms of who's stronger for the GE?

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What is with the Fitzhugh County group in the west?

Pretty sure that's his state house district

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Kustoff with only 53% in TN-08, albeit with less than 1% reporting.

I think Kustoff is going to win. He got Trump's endorsement if I recall correctly, that should tilt the E-day vote in his favor enough for him to win.

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I think Blackburn is gonna castrate Bredesen 53-45 now.

Lmao why has this primary changed your mind even?

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Lmao, polls have been closed for two whole hours and there are still exactly zero precincts reporting in Shelby County (Memphis). Typical Southern cities.

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Only two major races yet to be called: TN-05 GOP and TN-08 Dem. Both are primaries on the wrong side of a safe seat, so it's pretty safe to call it a night.

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Bit disappointing that Davids won, but progressives had some good wins in other areas, and she seems to be just a tad right of Welder.

Actually, it's quite good news. I'm as progressive as they come so I can attest that Davids is a solid progressive without Welder's enormous baggage. Her winning over Welder pretty much instantly moved the race to a tossup instead of Lean R.

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Bit disappointing that Davids won, but progressives had some good wins in other areas, and she seems to be just a tad right of Welder.

Actually, it's quite good news. I'm as progressive as they come so I can attest that Davids is a solid progressive without Welder's enormous baggage. Her winning over Welder pretty much instantly moved the race to a tossup instead of Lean R.

I know, but we could have had a socialist in KS, and it would have been proof that we can compete anywhere. I dont know the policy differences, I think they share most of the basics, but I would have really liked that image boost.

"Could have" is the key word. I don't know about you, but I'm a pragmatist. Welder would've been a significantly weaker GE candidate, and I don't really even think that's up for debate. I'd rather get a solid progressive in office than go for broke and try and get a socialist elected in Kansas. The latter would be nice, but it's tough. Probably too tough for it to have worked.

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Congrats to EmilysList for securing a Republican vs. Republican match-up in KS-03.

LMAO. You’re ridiculous if you think Davids isn’t progressive. At least she didn’t move into the district in April unlike Welder.

This is Tom Perez all over again. The establishment saw a progressive insurgent gaining momentum and unnecessarily tossed in a conservative alternative to the mix. There was literally no reason to do this other than to disrupt an actual progressive win.

There is so much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin.

First of all, the goal of the party establishment is to win elections. Literally, that's it. It's not the Congressional Progressive Caucus, it's for campaigning. Welder was not the man to meet this goal. Putting aside the fact that he has literally no ties to Kansas City, let alone the entire state of Kansas, he has significant flaws in regards to his politics. It's not that he's too progressive for the district, it's that he's associated with some fringe elements of the party before. I don't necessarily have a problem with that, but this wasn't the district to run a candidate like that in. Do you know anything about KS-03? It's R+4 and largely suburban in character. This isn't AOC's district in Queens, you can't just run DSA members and expect them to win elections. Davids is an objectively better candidate, and if you can't see that, you should probably try and get your head out of your own ass. So yes, it was necessary for her to run.

Second of all, I love how you say the establishment "tossed" Davids into the mix. She's an activist with strong ties to the district unlike your bearded waifu and had every right to make a run for the nomination. As a progressive, it pisses me off that my fellow progressives feel entitled to be the only candidates running in these seats and cry foul whenever a more moderate challenger, even a slightly more moderate challenger like Davids, joins the fray. You're not owed anything. If Welder had a right to the seat he would've won.

Third, Davids had establishment backing, sure. But let's not pretend that getting endorsed by EMILY'S List is like getting added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list. The DCCC actually stayed out of this one just so they could give Welder a chance. That sounds pretty fair to me.

Fourth, Davids is not a conservative. You clearly know nothing about Sharice Davids. She's an experienced lawyer, specialist in development, and all around badass who brings a lot to the table in regards to diversity of perspectives in Congress. What she isn't is a conservative. Have you even seen any of her platform? If so, name one conservative position she holds. She's more moderate than Welder, but she's no blue dog.

[wesmoorenerd]

Congrats to EmilysList for securing a Republican vs. Republican match-up in KS-03.

LMAO. You’re ridiculous if you think Davids isn’t progressive. At least she didn’t move into the district in April unlike Welder.

This is Tom Perez all over again. The establishment saw a progressive insurgent gaining momentum and unnecessarily tossed in a conservative alternative to the mix. There was literally no reason to do this other than to disrupt an actual progressive win.

There is so much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin.

First of all, the goal of the party establishment is to win elections. Literally, that's it. It's not the Congressional Progressive Caucus, it's for campaigning. Welder was not the man to meet this goal. Putting aside the fact that he has literally no ties to Kansas City, let alone the entire state of Kansas, he has significant flaws in regards to his politics. It's not that he's too progressive for the district, it's that he's associated with some fringe elements of the party before. I don't necessarily have a problem with that, but this wasn't the district to run a candidate like that in. Do you know anything about KS-03? It's R+4 and largely suburban in character. This isn't AOC's district in Queens, you can't just run DSA members and expect them to win elections. Davids is an objectively better candidate, and if you can't see that, you should probably try and get your head out of your own ass. So yes, it was necessary for her to run.

Second of all, I love how you say the establishment "tossed" Davids into the mix. She's an activist with strong ties to the district unlike your bearded waifu and had every right to make a run for the nomination. As a progressive, it pisses me off that my fellow progressives feel entitled to be the only candidates running in these seats and cry foul whenever a more moderate challenger, even a slightly more moderate challenger like Davids, joins the fray. You're not owed anything. If Welder had a right to the seat he would've won.

Third, Davids had establishment backing, sure. But let's not pretend that getting endorsed by EMILY'S List is like getting added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list. The DCCC actually stayed out of this one just so they could give Welder a chance. That sounds pretty fair to me.

Fourth, Davids is not a conservative. You clearly know nothing about Sharice Davids. She's an experienced lawyer, specialist in development, and all around badass who brings a lot to the table in regards to diversity of perspectives in Congress. What she isn't is a conservative. Have you even seen any of her platform? If so, name one conservative position she holds. She's more moderate than Welder, but she's no blue dog.

 Its been shown that ideology matters little in elections in the USA. Its more likely that it was his baggage, not his views that would sink him.

Davids appears to be a new-age moderate. Supportive of a tax cut, but only for the middle class. Not wanting medicare for all, but wanting more Obamacare. I will be honest, she is actually on the conservative side of moderate candidates this year. Will we win this district? Likely. Would we have won this district? Also likely. Are the Left upset that one of their likely candidates was taken out by a let recruit? yeah, kind of. Are the Left entitled? No, I dont know where you got that idea, since most of us have preached D unity. Is this one district the defining election of 2018? No, so I dont know why we are fussing over 1 seat of out 488.

Did you not read what I said? I literally said that his leftist positions weren't what would've sunk him. Davids is pretty mainstream but progressive relative to the district, which is how we should really be judging these candidates. She's definitely not "conservative". Welder's campaign had a high chance of imploding considering all of its baggage. That alone made me enthusiastically support Davids, because guess what? Any of the Dems would be better than Yoder.

I'm sick of my fellow progressives acting like they have a monopoly on everything left of center. Sure, most progressives have done an admirable job uniting behind the Democratic Party, but the guy I was responding to literally called Davids, a mainstream liberal that's progressive relative to her suburban district, a Republican. Doesn't sound like D unity to me.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was referring to this line, which is false, as I said, ideology matters little. Based on your rebuttal, however, it seems that I was nitpicking, and I apologize.

Anyway, you are correct that Davids is left of the district, but she could have been more. The way I see it, there are 4 branches of the D party at this point, Conservative, Liberal, Progressive, and DS. She fits in the liberal category, but on the Conservative side. As I pointed out, she is rather squishy and moderate, even on issues that she doesnt have to. She likes the tax cuts, but only the ones for the Middle Class. She likes Obamacare, but not expanding the program into medicare for all, which is something most moderate candidates have embraced at this point. Even on guns, in a suburban district, she is not progressive on them,  wanting stricter background checks, and nothing else.

And while I dont agree that she is a Republican, I would not call her a Dem either, she is in the middle, but leans Atlas Red, according to her platform. Overall, I am disappointed, but this is just one race, and Im surprised we are all obsessing over it. Then again, the same happened when Kara Eastman, a real progressive, beat the actual R Democrat for the D nomination, so, I guess I should expect this going onto Atlas.

Davids certainly could've been further to the left of the district. We could've gotten away with running someone with Welder's positions in the district, no question about it. The ideal candidate would've pretty much would've combined Davids' electability with Welder's positions. Unfortunately, that ideal candidate didn't exist. Instead, we got a very progressive option that would've struggled to win the election, and a more moderate candidate that would probably be favored. The risk was larger than the reward in this case, so I backed Davids. Davids is definitely left of center, though, no question in my mind.

Also worth noting that Kara Eastman was and is a very good candidate: progressive and also electable, without Welder-esque baggage.

Lastly, why would you ever go onto Atlas and expect informed discussion

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Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

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Thankfully Kansas has a sore loser law, otherwise we'd be seeing an independent run for the Sanders candidate.

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!

-tweet-

Not to mention Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Davids on Twitter.

I love this narrative that Sanders supporters refuse to unite behind the general election candidate when we have large parts of the Democratic establishment in Maryland refusing to campaign with or endorse Jealous, and a LITERAL INDEPENDENT RUN from a centrist Democrat against Marc Elrich in the Mont. County race in the same state.

Montgomery County resident here. Let me calm your fears about Nancy Floreen, there's a zero percent chance Elrich isn't going to be the next Montgomery County Executive. Nobody likes Floreen, people here are partisan and aren't going to vote for a centrist spoiler.

How low Montgomery county has fallen)))) Not long ago it elected a sensible politicians of all sorts (sometimes - even sensible Republicans of very sane variety). Now it's simply a hyperparisan army of "bold progressives", who doesn't know, how to think, and simply press one familiar button))))))

With all due respect, you clearly know nothing about Montgomery County. It's decidedly not progressive, which is the only reason there's been so much pushback to Elrich. There are a few reasons why it's so partisan. A good portion of the county is comprised of DC metro area government workers, who have a vested interest in voting for the party that doesn't want to make their lives harder. Not to mention the county is fairly urbanized despite technically being suburban, which obviously improves the Democrats' standing. You can knock Montgomery County for plenty of different flaws, but one thing it's most assuredly not is full of brainless political partisans. People here have good reasons for voting D.

[wesmoorenerd]

Quick Update on the still uncalled race for second place in WA-2:


Congressional District 2 - U.S. RepresentativeCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Collin Richard Carlson(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,985   7.71%
Uncle Mover(Prefers Moderate GOP Party)
11,750   7.56%
Brian Luke(Prefers Libertarian Party)
12,238   7.87%
Stonewall Jackson Bird (Stoney)(Prefers Green Party)
6,479   4.17%
Rick Larsen(Prefers Democratic Party)
100,863   64.87% will finish first
Gary Franco(Prefers Independent Party)
12,172   7.83%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   155,487   


At this point, I can officially project that Stonewall Jackson Bird, Uncle Mover, and Collin Richard Carlson will not advance to the next round. However, it remains too close to call between Gary Franco and Brian Luke. Approximately 906 votes remain in the counties in the district (though not all votes are in CD 2), and the bulk of those are in a county where Mr. Franco (who is in 3rd districtwide) leads Mr. Luke (who is in 2nd districtwide). With a difference of less than 100 votes districtwide, it remains much too close to call, and may remain such until the counting deadline on the 21st.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[wesmoorenerd]

Finishing up AZ:

U.S. Representative in Congress - District No. 6 (DEM)
Summary By County Vote Type
2 Year Term  |  Elect 1
ChoiceVotes
Percent
 

Malik, Anita
15,721

40.59%


Ross, Heather
15,290

39.47%


McFadden, Garrick
7,723

19.94%

Nobody has commented on this, at least as far as I can see.  Anita Malik is the much weaker general election candidate. 

Yeah, Ross was the presumptive nominee and raised significantly more money. I don't really know enough about Malik to characterize her as "weak", but she's going to need to catch up in fundraising and get her name out there if she wants to stand a chance in the GE. I still think this district stands a chance of flipping considering Schweikert has some personal issues, but Malik is facing an even more uphill battle than Ross would have.

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Between Koh leading and Capuano losing, this has not been a good night in my book.

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Capuano supported sanctuary cities in the 1980s. in the 1990s, he supported Medicare-for-all. By the morning, everyone will talk about how he was a "corporate, centrist dem."

I don't get it, if this is the case, why does he have a primary challenger? What did he do?

He had the misfortune of living in the same district as Ayanna Pressley. Capuano did pretty much nothing wrong.

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New vote dump narrows the margin in the 7th district. Pressley 53.3%, Capuano 46.7% with 31% in.

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Lori Trahan     4,055    35.8%    
Rufus Gifford     2,297    20.3%
Daniel Koh     1,359    12.0%    
Juana Matias     882     7.8%    
Barbara L'Italien 842            7.4%    
16% in

Barbara L'Italien completely crashing and burning so far in MA-07. Damn. Trahan out to a surprisingly strong start, interesting considering I was under the impression that it was likely to be one of Koh, Gifford, and L'Italien.

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Between Koh leading and Capuano losing, this has not been a good night in my book.

Spoke a bit soon there. Koh is now in third place and losing by 24 points.

True that Koh is now trailing, but Trahan is hardly any better than him. Where's my L'Italien surge?

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Capuano is DONE, FINISHED. 2nd big Upset since Crowley lost.

Big if true

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Of course Democratic primary voters can’t take out trash like Menendez, Lipinski, Lynch and Hastings

It really does suck that the truly crappy members like those (among others) are skating by while solid progressives like Crowley and Capuano are losing for mostly non ideological reasons.

I wouldn't say Lipinski "skated by" by any means, his win was pretty much a crossover voting induced fluke and there's a good chance he gets primaried out for real in 2020.

That said, I agree that we need to stop focusing our attention on ousting these garden variety progressives and actually turn our attention to the pernicious problem of corrupt and conservative Democrats.

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Carper's opponent in the primary, Harris, has published her plan to take the seat in an article:

https://medium.com/kerri-evelyn-harris-for-delaware/how-we-win-my-final-report-39d0d94b42aa

I know it's most likely wishful thinking, but... please let it be true please let it be true please let it be true please let it be true please let it be true please let it be true please let it be true

Please! Delaware deserves better than Carper!

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༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ PAPPAS TAKE MY ENERGY ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

We're in the home stretch here folks! Third to last day of primaries!

Personally hoping for Kelly and Flawless Beautiful Chris Pappas.