CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Brittain33]

One more question: Pate comes from Lowdness county, which is 70+% Black and heavily Democratic. Typical for Black Belt situation with generally liberal and almost completely Democratic Blacks, and heavily conservative and almost exclusively Republican whites? In the past this area was Democratic, very conservative and segregationist. Whites are still very conservative, Republican, and, probably, still segregationst in their thoughts here...

I thought Republicans in majority-minority counties were more moderate even if voting is still polarized.

[Brittain33]

Glad to see the stronger, grassroots-backed women candidates defeat the useless, milquetoast, business-friendly, moderate-heroish men. The Democratic party seems to finally be getting a clue.

Also, how come Kemp won so massively? Did anyone see that coming? I thought Cagle was favored.

The problem is, that Republicans are also glad. To have "stronger, grassroots-backed women" as their opponents))) in these districts.

This conventional wisdom may not hold in 2018. Remember that Dems were happy to have Donald Trump as our opponent, only to find the rules had changed.

[Brittain33]

Glad to see the stronger, grassroots-backed women candidates defeat the useless, milquetoast, business-friendly, moderate-heroish men. The Democratic party seems to finally be getting a clue.

Also, how come Kemp won so massively? Did anyone see that coming? I thought Cagle was favored.

The problem is, that Republicans are also glad. To have "stronger, grassroots-backed women" as their opponents))) in these districts.

This conventional wisdom may not hold in 2018. Remember that Dems were happy to have Donald Trump as our opponent, only to find the rules had changed.

Of course that may happen. But as a general rule ("candidate must fit a distirict") i don't consider "bold progressives" the best candidates in swingy districts with strong Republican past, and not especially problematic Republican incumbents.

True, but "stronger, grassroots-backed women" doesn't necessarily imply "bold progressives" (although in this case, it does.)

[Brittain33]

Exactly because in this case "stronger, grassroots-backed women" are "bold progressives" in non-progressive districts.

Amy McGrath? M.J. Hegar?

[Brittain33]

Exactly because in this case "stronger, grassroots-backed women" are "bold progressives" in non-progressive districts.

Amy McGrath? M.J. Hegar?

Have very serious doubts about Hegar. McGrath - may be, but we will see. It won't be easy in any case, despite long Democratic tradition of Bluegrass area.

All I'm saying is that the old conventional wisdom about who Democratic candidates are and what their gender signifies to voters has likely changed a lot since 2016 *because* of Donald Trump and the revulsion he evinces among a majority of American women—not just as voters but as candidates.

[Brittain33]

Why the negativity on Omar?

[Brittain33]

Why the negativity on Omar?

Her antisemitic Twitter rants and apparent pro-FGM attitudes.

Ok, I looked this up, and saw one reference to "apartheid Israel." While the Venn Diagram between strong criticism of Israel and anti-Semitism has an uncomfortably big middle section, this alone is not an "anti-Semitic rant" or evidence that she's anti-Semitic, IMO.

[Brittain33]

I think other (worse) tweets got brought up in the relevant thread, but admittedly I haven't followed it too closely. But I got the sense it was pretty serious.

Ok, I found this:

https://www.jta.org/2018/08/15/news-opinion/ilhan-omar-called-israel-apartheid-regime-wins-congressional-primary-minnesota

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's pretty bad, but looking at the rest of the article, it appears she's moderated since then especially now that she's running for office. That's good enough for me.

[Brittain33]

We probably don't want to import that particular debate into this results thread, and my bad for inadvertently doing so because I wasn't reading the MN-5 thread.

[Brittain33]

Finishing up Oklahoma:

Attorney General
Republican Primary Runoff

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Mike Hunter*
148,354   50.0%   
Gentner Drummond
148,085   50.0   
296,439 votes, 100% reporting (1,951 of 1,951 precincts)

That has to hurt.

[Brittain33]

Pretty sure a large percentage of the unaffiliated voters are Puerto Ricans, who can't vote in the primaries but lean heavily dem in the General. 

....although news stories are reporting that Scott has worked this community since Hurricane Maria while Nelson hasn't done as much.

[Brittain33]

Why is NH having their primary on 9/11?

Because Massachusetts moved ours to avoid Rosh Hashanah and NH didn’t.

[Brittain33]

Kind of amazing that the GOP is winning 2 counties (Barnstable & Plymouth) and on the verge of winning a third (Worcester) with a 67-33 ballot split in favor of Democrats.

Worcester: 35505-34547              
Plymouth: 27288-23807    
Barnstable: 17981-16273

What was the draw for Dems who didn’t have active local or congressional races for the primary? Galvin-Zakim and which Dem will lose to Baker isn’t very exciting. Republicans had competitive senate races and had to defend Charlie Baker.

[Brittain33]

Well, we've answered the question of how best to gerrymander 2 Republican-friendly districts in Massachusetts.

[Brittain33]

Excellent precinct map of MA-7 in this article. Scroll down.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/09/07/somerville-changing-and-are-its-voters-just-ask-ayanna-pressley/fbwXyuAGpTJIs2yTE93Y3M/story.html?s_campaign=breakingnews:newsletter

[Brittain33]

Belknap being near 50/50 is a very grim sign for Rs. That’s a very ancestral Republican county. Even FDR never carried it once.

I think that’s where Dems had some huge special election wins in 2017, admittedly in tiny districts.

[Brittain33]

DID EVERYONE FORGET WHAT "CPRM" STOOD FOR OR WHAT BOARD THIS IS?

I moderate the board and if you put a gun to my head I couldn't tell you what CPRM stands for.

In any case, this is the last primary night before Election Day and this board gets more traffic than the Gubernatorial/Statewide forum, so I don't see any harm.

[Brittain33]

Let's get back on topic. Thanks.

[Brittain33]

I remember when Peter Valesky was elected as a reformist in the start of the backlash to George W. Bush.