CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Antonio the Sixth]

Holy sh**t, they're STILL counting in CA?!

It's almost done. Those results might always be final.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So are the California results basically official now?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Then here are some numbers!


Governor
Democrats: 62.51% (+1.16 from ED results)
Republicans: 36.17% (-1.21)
Others: 1.31% (+0.05)

The 26.34% Democratic margin is actually a Republican swing from 2016's PVI, by 1.56 points, although it's still a 7.11-point Democratic swing from 2012.


Senate
Democrats: 63.45% (+1.41)
Republicans: 33.22% (-1.44)
Others: 3.33% (+0.03)

The 30.22% margin is a +2.32 swing for Democrats from 2016, and a +10.99 swing from 2012.


House races

Democratic margin and swing from 2012 and 2016 for the 10 potentially competitive districts (including some longshots):
CA-7: 6.53% (+6.45% from 2012, -2.88% from 2016)
CA-10: -4.21% (-3.95% from 2012, -5.08% from 2016)
CA-21 : -25.64% (-32.88% from 2012, -39.18% from 2016)
CA-22: -17.36% (+1.50% from 2012, -5.75% from 2016)
CA-25: -3.70% (+1.97% from 2012, -8.32% from 2016)
CA-36: 10.06% (+10.75% from 2012, +3.38% from 2016)
CA-39: -8.41% (-0.89% from 2012, -14.96% from 2016)
CA-45: -5.59% (+10.02% from 2012, -8.96% from 2016)
CA-48: -7.04% (+8.50% from 2012, -6.67% from 2016)
CA-49: 2.99% (+13.44% from 2012, -2.42% from 2016)

So it looks like all Dem incumbents are safe (I know, duh), Levin seems favored in CA-49, and CA-10 and CA-25 seems like Democrats' best bets for further pickups in the State (so much for MUH ORANGE COUNTY!!! being decisive). Valadao still did absurdly well given his district, but I guess low Hispanic turnout explains at least part of it. Nunes is also safe (again, I know, duh). CA-39 is particularly disappointing given that the D-R margin is even worse than it should be based on 2012 numbers. Generally speaking, Hillary's performance in 2016 seems to have been something of an anomaly, although some gains have consolidated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a grown adult that goes by the name "Twinkle"?

That’s literally her first name lol

That's honestly kind of awesome.

I'll say it: I'd rather have someone named Twinkle on the Supreme Court than someone named Brett.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see the stronger, grassroots-backed women candidates defeat the useless, milquetoast, business-friendly, moderate-heroish men. The Democratic party seems to finally be getting a clue.

Also, how come Kemp won so massively? Did anyone see that coming? I thought Cagle was favored.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, how come Kemp won so massively? Did anyone see that coming? I thought Cagle was favored.

Kemp had been favoured ever since the tapes of him admitting to supporting education policies he knew were bad and describing the campaign as "who could be the craziest" came out. This made him be not only seen as corrupt, it also made him viewed as someone who hated voters at the same time.

The tapes meant he was already toast, but the Trump endorsement of Kemp made sure it was going to be a massive blowout.

So Mr. Points-a-gun-at-a-teenager somehow ended up as the least damaged candidate in the race? Amazing. What a clown car.

Seriously, if Democrats can't win Georgia this year, it means it's unwinnable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

ayy lmao at centrists pretending they know anything about what makes a candidate "electable" when they've been consistently wrong about it for the past 10 years

[Antonio the Sixth]

Which Democratic Gov candidate should I root for?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Which Democratic Gov candidate should I root for?

Karl Dean

Elaborate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please note that some WULFRIC PROJECTIONS could be delayed for days because of WA's odd counting system.

oh no, what a nightmare

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tracking precinct turnout reports on twitter, it seems as if turnout is extremely high across Michigan for the primary. Something to keep an eye on tonight.

I really, really hope El-Sayed has a chance. He's been possibly the most inspiring candidate of this entire cycle.

As long as it's not Thanedar I'll be happy.

I mean yeah, Thanedar is a f***king cancer, but Whitmer is meh and exactly the wrong kind of candidate to reconquer the Midwest for Democrats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A guy named "Abdul El-Sayed" isn't the right candidate, even if he has a fantastic platform.

A guy with the middle name Hussein won Michigan by 16 points. I thought you were smarter than to fall for these ridiculous clichés.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, Abdul leading in Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor).

I mean, he probably needed to win it big in order to be competitive statewide. Whitmer probably has this, sadly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of f**king course Whitmer won. F**k this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only progressive win I can see from yesterday is Tlaib winning in MI-13. Everything else seems like an establishment-fest.

Still good news out of Washington, yeah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

After looking in depth at her platform, I have found out she is indeed a moderate. I am now really disappointed.

Ugh, so am I.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I take solace that in 2020, after Dems win the house and possibly the senate, that the message of Dem Unity will be ineffective, and Dems will finally start to support the candidates that they actually like, instead of "muh electoral strength"

That's awfully optimistic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

kim jong un pls nuke

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really hoping Cathy Myers gets destroyed in the primary by at least a 3 on 1 margin.

Why? Isn't she clearly the strongest candidate at this point? I used to like Bryce but the guy is clearly a bit sketchy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really hoping Cathy Myers gets destroyed in the primary by at least a 3 on 1 margin.

Why? Isn't she clearly the strongest candidate at this point? I used to like Bryce but the guy is clearly a bit sketchy.

I do not want single custodial parents who have chosen not to put their child up for 3rd/4th adoption to be running in Democratic primaries. Failing that, I want to see them destroyed by a landslide in the primary.

..............

.....

......

...there is something deeply and seriously wrong with you, but I'm not sure I want to know what it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really hoping Cathy Myers gets destroyed in the primary by at least a 3 on 1 margin.

Why? Isn't she clearly the strongest candidate at this point? I used to like Bryce but the guy is clearly a bit sketchy.

I do not want single custodial parents who have chosen not to put their child up for 3rd/4th adoption to be running in Democratic primaries. Failing that, I want to see them destroyed by a landslide in the primary.

..............

.....

......

...there is something deeply and seriously wrong with you, but I'm not sure I want to know what it is.

That I believe children are better off in a family with 2 loving parents, not 1, and that it is immoral to require people to pay child support for children they never wanted? To me, this is common sense progressive positions.

You seem incapable of understanding the nature of the bond between a parent and their child and the psychological implications of separating them (which I guess is one thing you have in common with the T***p administration). Again, I'd rather not know why that is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lolpawlenty

Anyway, seems like a solid night for Dems overall. Shame that Ellison, Omar and Bryce won, but it was always going to be an uphill climb to prevent it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the negativity on Omar?

Her antisemitic Twitter rants and apparent pro-FGM attitudes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think other (worse) tweets got brought up in the relevant thread, but admittedly I haven't followed it too closely. But I got the sense it was pretty serious.