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September 15, 2019, 07:34:15 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5
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Author Topic: AZ/TX/FL-CBS Battleground Tracker: Sinema+8 (+20 v Arpaio), Cruz+10, Scott+5  (Read 2107 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #50 on: June 25, 2018, 07:01:01 am »

With Cruz solidly at 50 in multiple pollsit looks like Robert Francis O'Rourke is well on his way to being an msnbc host after his loss
the hipocrisy is baffling. calling beto his real name when u wont to eduardo?
At least he's gone by his middle name his entire life, O'Rourke didn't become "beto" until he ran for office.

Will this guy ever be infracted for his constant lying and making up facts?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #51 on: June 25, 2018, 08:04:02 am »

Lee Fisher was ahead of Portman due to fact he was Strickland's Lt Gov. QU also had Strickland ahead of Portman in 2016 Senate race, which they got wrong again
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #52 on: June 25, 2018, 08:54:31 am »

Reminder for noobs:
Quinnipiac poll of Ohio Senate, 6/27/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 42%
Rob Portman (R) - 40%

PPP poll of Ohio Senate, 6/26/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 40%
Rob Portman (R) - 38%

Rick Scott is a well-known and somewhat popular figure in Florida so it shouldn't come as a surprise that, as of the present moment, FL-Sen appears to be a battleground but there's a case to be made that this state of affairs will evaporate after Labor Day once people start paying attention. In the end, Rick Scott has many liabilities, Bill Nelson is a popular incumbent and we're still in a Blue Wave environment.

Many of you are too young to remember the 2010 midterms or didn't follow politics at the time. I remember the polling breaking hard against Democrats when the campaigns kicked off in earnest. If you're a Republican, you shouldn't be optimistic about the midterms, even if there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Trump's odds of being re-elected.

edit: Florida sample is 43 R/39 D/15 I. This doesn't invalidate the poll, possible midterm electorate will look like this, but it's worth mentioning.

For sure, this poll (and other similar polls) do not mean that Nelson will lose. As you note, early polls are not particularly accurate, and Nelson will have to screw up big time to lose if, as expected, it is a D wave year.

But it is nonetheless concerning that we have at this point a slew of (low quality) polls, most of which show Scott slightly leading Nelson in FL. These things can both be true at the same time.

Yes, Scott is well known as the Governor, but Nelson should be well known as well, and supposedly he was/is popular (hence his previous easy re-elections).

What we should want to see is what we see in other states - Dem incumbents generally with leads, even in much redder states. Sure, what we see is partially a reflection of Scott's strength and not just Nelson's weakness, but Nelson really needs to step up his game.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #53 on: June 25, 2018, 12:13:46 pm »

Reminder for noobs:
Quinnipiac poll of Ohio Senate, 6/27/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 42%
Rob Portman (R) - 40%

PPP poll of Ohio Senate, 6/26/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 40%
Rob Portman (R) - 38%

Rick Scott is a well-known and somewhat popular figure in Florida so it shouldn't come as a surprise that, as of the present moment, FL-Sen appears to be a battleground but there's a case to be made that this state of affairs will evaporate after Labor Day once people start paying attention. In the end, Rick Scott has many liabilities, Bill Nelson is a popular incumbent and we're still in a Blue Wave environment.

Many of you are too young to remember the 2010 midterms or didn't follow politics at the time. I remember the polling breaking hard against Democrats when the campaigns kicked off in earnest. If you're a Republican, you shouldn't be optimistic about the midterms, even if there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Trump's odds of being re-elected.

edit: Florida sample is 43 R/39 D/15 I. This doesn't invalidate the poll, possible midterm electorate will look like this, but it's worth mentioning.

For sure, this poll (and other similar polls) do not mean that Nelson will lose. As you note, early polls are not particularly accurate, and Nelson will have to screw up big time to lose if, as expected, it is a D wave year.

But it is nonetheless concerning that we have at this point a slew of (low quality) polls, most of which show Scott slightly leading Nelson in FL. These things can both be true at the same time.

Yes, Scott is well known as the Governor, but Nelson should be well known as well, and supposedly he was/is popular (hence his previous easy re-elections).

What we should want to see is what we see in other states - Dem incumbents generally with leads, even in much redder states. Sure, what we see is partially a reflection of Scott's strength and not just Nelson's weakness, but Nelson really needs to step up his game.

Scott has spent 20 millions by now and has the airwaves to himself. That's the main reason he might have taken a lead.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #54 on: June 25, 2018, 12:21:20 pm »

Reminder for noobs:
Quinnipiac poll of Ohio Senate, 6/27/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 42%
Rob Portman (R) - 40%

PPP poll of Ohio Senate, 6/26/10:
Lee Fisher (D) - 40%
Rob Portman (R) - 38%

Rick Scott is a well-known and somewhat popular figure in Florida so it shouldn't come as a surprise that, as of the present moment, FL-Sen appears to be a battleground but there's a case to be made that this state of affairs will evaporate after Labor Day once people start paying attention. In the end, Rick Scott has many liabilities, Bill Nelson is a popular incumbent and we're still in a Blue Wave environment.

Many of you are too young to remember the 2010 midterms or didn't follow politics at the time. I remember the polling breaking hard against Democrats when the campaigns kicked off in earnest. If you're a Republican, you shouldn't be optimistic about the midterms, even if there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Trump's odds of being re-elected.

edit: Florida sample is 43 R/39 D/15 I. This doesn't invalidate the poll, possible midterm electorate will look like this, but it's worth mentioning.

For sure, this poll (and other similar polls) do not mean that Nelson will lose. As you note, early polls are not particularly accurate, and Nelson will have to screw up big time to lose if, as expected, it is a D wave year.

But it is nonetheless concerning that we have at this point a slew of (low quality) polls, most of which show Scott slightly leading Nelson in FL. These things can both be true at the same time.

Yes, Scott is well known as the Governor, but Nelson should be well known as well, and supposedly he was/is popular (hence his previous easy re-elections).

What we should want to see is what we see in other states - Dem incumbents generally with leads, even in much redder states. Sure, what we see is partially a reflection of Scott's strength and not just Nelson's weakness, but Nelson really needs to step up his game.

Scott has spent 20 millions by now and has the airwaves to himself. That's the main reason he might have taken a lead.

Right you are Lyndon! What people on this forum seem to be forgetting is the strategy both candidates are using for this election. Rick Scott is blazing the airwaves with his stacks of cash, to some effect, while Bill Nelson is doing what he did in 2012, waiting until the end of summer/beginning of fall before pouncing with a blitzkrieg of ads. While Nelson is in a worse position than in 2012, with the governor coming after him with gobs of money, Nelson still has an environmental advantage and the advantage of being able to do well in the North. The polls this far out are going to keep fluctuating between the two candidates, but in the summer, expect a huge gain for nelson.
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UWS
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« Reply #55 on: June 27, 2018, 11:09:04 am »

Great news for Scott if the YouGov poll says that 52 % of Florida voters approve Trump's leadership and  if 77 % of voters believe Florida's economy is doing well.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nbv3bzmxq0/cbs_20180624_FL.pdf
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Thunder98
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« Reply #56 on: June 27, 2018, 09:14:03 pm »

Go Sinema!
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