2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 143403 times)
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #25 on: June 28, 2018, 10:01:06 AM »
Odds that hofiod is just a King Lear sock?
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #26 on: June 28, 2018, 10:04:29 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on June 28, 2018, 10:01:06 AM
Odds that hofiod is just a King Lear sock?
IP check me, then. It's not my fault that people are delusional about what's gonna happen this fall. Russia ended up being a nothingburger. Everyone's gonna forget the children in the camps thing due to Trump's cave...and North Korea ended up not being a disaster. Also, Kennedy late term aborted any hope of waves yesterday.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #27 on: June 28, 2018, 10:11:25 AM »
It’s funny you call others “delusional” while everything you listed about why the midterms won’t be good is just your opinion of what will happen. Nothing so far suggests that Russiagate will go nowhere, that the public will forget about what Trump is doing to the kids, a story came out that NK is building up nukes again, and nothing so far suggests that this Kennedy replacement fight will kill dem momentum. It’s literally just your opinion so the idea that others are “delusional” for not sharing in your opinion of how the future will turn out is laughable
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #28 on: June 28, 2018, 10:12:11 AM »
I don't know. Referendums on abortion usually don't go a particular way.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: June 28, 2018, 10:13:22 AM »
If they move as fast on this as I assume McConnell will, the new Justice will be approved by September and forgotten by November, other than pissed off Liberals.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #30 on: June 28, 2018, 10:15:48 AM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on June 28, 2018, 09:44:08 AM
Quote from: ON Progressive on June 28, 2018, 09:40:38 AM

Not a big deal. Wasn't Lance DOA among the Blue Wave Cult here?

Outside of the pure partisan Hacks, NJ-07 is a consistent tossup seat. Its NJ-11 and NJ-02 that are already being pushed to the dem corner. If all three fall then NJ is now 10-2 Dem, with the outside chance at NJ-03 and making it 11-1. Quite the turnaround on a map made to be 6-6.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #31 on: June 28, 2018, 10:19:54 AM »
That NJ-7 poll is GQR for the campaign so consider it (D)
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #32 on: June 28, 2018, 10:23:11 AM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 28, 2018, 10:15:48 AM
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on June 28, 2018, 09:44:08 AM
Quote from: ON Progressive on June 28, 2018, 09:40:38 AM

Not a big deal. Wasn't Lance DOA among the Blue Wave Cult here?

Outside of the pure partisan Hacks, NJ-07 is a consistent tossup seat. Its NJ-11 and NJ-02 that are already being pushed to the dem corner. If all three fall then NJ is now 10-2 Dem, with the outside chance at NJ-03 and making it 11-1. Quite the turnaround on a map made to be 6-6.

Pretty much. The turnaround is pretty shocking, NJ-02 and NJ-11 are likely to flip even on a bad night for Dems at this point, and NJ-07 is probably favored to flip at this point as well. Not to mention NJ-03 could flip in even a modest wave.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #33 on: June 28, 2018, 12:37:12 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 27, 2018, 11:11:06 AM
Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

Do you think a Jersey sweep for the Dems will be possible?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #34 on: June 28, 2018, 02:09:55 PM »
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ajc0918
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« Reply #35 on: June 28, 2018, 02:19:08 PM »
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on June 28, 2018, 02:09:55 PM


Winnable.
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American2020
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« Reply #36 on: June 28, 2018, 02:30:35 PM »
From Larry Sabato

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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/17816/
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #37 on: June 28, 2018, 02:43:27 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on June 28, 2018, 02:19:08 PM
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on June 28, 2018, 02:09:55 PM


Winnable.

Have we seen a poll where Love is above 45%? I don't think we have
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Person Man
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« Reply #38 on: June 28, 2018, 03:55:29 PM »

Generally all but maybe a couple break for the party that's winning.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #39 on: June 28, 2018, 04:05:24 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on June 28, 2018, 02:43:27 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on June 28, 2018, 02:19:08 PM
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on June 28, 2018, 02:09:55 PM


Winnable.

Have we seen a poll where Love is above 45%? I don't think we have

Either way, the fundamentals suggest that Love will win easily, and fundamentals are generally more accurate that polls for predictions.
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fridgeking
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« Reply #40 on: June 28, 2018, 05:16:43 PM »
Paul Davis internal

KS-02: Davis(D) 39% Fitzgerald(R) 34%

https://www.davisforkansas.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/18mem627-f-KS-2-FINAL.pdf
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Maxwell
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« Reply #41 on: June 28, 2018, 05:35:43 PM »
that's okay but worse than I was expecting considering the GOP there is acting as if they were DOA in that district.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #42 on: June 28, 2018, 06:27:45 PM »

Weak Lean D.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #43 on: June 28, 2018, 06:31:12 PM »
Still Lean R
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #44 on: June 29, 2018, 12:39:59 AM »
Quote from: Zyzz on June 28, 2018, 12:37:12 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 27, 2018, 11:11:06 AM
Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

Do you think a Jersey sweep for the Dems will be possible?

Very unlikely. Dems can get to 10-2 on a decent night and 11-1 on a good night, but I don't see them unseating Smith in any scenario.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #45 on: June 29, 2018, 07:48:47 AM »
« Edited: June 29, 2018, 07:56:06 AM by ajc0918 »
I haven't seen this posted anywhere yet.

CA-22 (PPP) [Paid for by End Citizens United]

David Nunes (R) - 49%
Andrew Janz (D) - 41%

http://endcitizensunited.org/press-releases/new-poll-ca-22-race-within-eight-points/
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JG
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« Reply #46 on: June 29, 2018, 08:32:20 AM »
So far, all the House polls released in the past few days have been coherent with a D+7ish generic ballot.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #47 on: June 29, 2018, 04:42:04 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters, June 24-28, 1810 registered voters

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)
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ajc0918
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« Reply #48 on: June 29, 2018, 04:47:08 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 29, 2018, 04:42:04 PM
Ipsos/Reuters, June 24-28, 1810 registered voters

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)



Wow
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #49 on: June 29, 2018, 04:49:57 PM »

This poll tends to be rather noisy.  Don't get too excited unless it stays that way for a few cycles. Smiley
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