2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[GeorgiaModerate]

NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36

[ON Progressive]

NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36

LOL. 400 respondents, GOP internal, and 25% undecided? Throw this in the trash.

[BudgieForce]

NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36

Phil Murphy won Gottheimer's district in an off year, low turnout election. This poll is off the mark.

[IceSpear]

What a valuable poll. I really didn't think Gottheimer's opponent would get at least 39% of the vote, but now I am enlightened and see he will!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just post 'em.  Quality is in the eye of the beholder.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Good chance hofoid and Limo are the same troll

[BudgieForce]

Tel Opinion is a decent pollster, but I dislike how they did this poll. Not only do they make no mention of the sample i.d, but the top-line is the 5th question asked. Also, somehow McCann has better name recognition than Gottheimer which is laughable. I mean, I guess this is an internal but again, I dont trust it.

The poll asks multiple times if the person taking it is willing to vote for a republican, than does the topline.

[ON Progressive]

Not only do they make no mention of the sample i.d, but the top-line is the 5th question asked. Also, somehow McCann has better name recognition than Gottheimer which is laughable. I mean, I guess this is an internal but again, I dont trust it.

The poll asks multiple times if the person taking it is willing to vote for a republican, than does the topline.

LMAO. This is junk, but hemorrhofoid and Limo are eating it up of course. Mainly because this poll and their posts are both junk.

[Politician]

NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36

Any poll with both candidates that low = Fake poll.

Also don't let Admiral President see this

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NJ-05: Tel Opinion Research (R), internal poll for McCann.  Aug. 9-12, 400 respondents, live caller.

John McCann (R) 39
Josh Gottheimer (D, inc) 36

LOL. 400 respondents, GOP internal, and 25% undecided? Throw this in the trash.

It could make sense. But wait, before yall wreck me and call me a troll, the contingency is probably not met here. If you have 39-36 Gottheimer down with 25 undecided, if indies break for us how they have been you should have an additional 16.25 points for Gottheimer and an additional 8.75 points for McCann. This would translate to Gottheimer winning 52.25-47.75, which is not entirely crazy.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I have a gut feeling the Democrats will pick up 36 seats in the House.

[Arkansas Yankee]

CBS is doing some type of tracking poll. It sees about a 20 seat Democrat gain. It does not rule out the GOP keeping the  House.

https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-news-pollster-reveals-why-blue-wave-is-unlikely/

I am just throwing this out.  I still see D +25-30.

[Ebsy]

Continuous panel surveys are junk. See: RAND Corporation 2016. Also their citing of the USC/LA Times tracker from 2016 is hysterical since it was probably the worst poll of them all... Trump winning by 3 (he lost by 2) for a very unimpressive 5 point error.

[libertpaulian]

CBS is doing some type of tracking poll. It sees about a 20 seat Democrat gain. It does not rule out the GOP keeping the  House.

https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-news-pollster-reveals-why-blue-wave-is-unlikely/

I am just throwing this out.  I still see D +25-30.

I'd predict 33.  Just to throw a random number out there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As of now, I'm predicting the Democrats retake both houses pretty handily - just to spite CBS, which has turned into a carbon copy of Fox News in recent years.

[Pericles]

Tbh a 20-25 seat gain would probably mean Democrats have the same level of popular support as the GOP in 2010, so while not a wave in the seat sense it would be misleading to dismiss such a result entirely and given the obstacles in the form of gerrymandering to a Democratic victory any win is probably a wave in at least some sense.

[Gass3268]

Continuous panel surveys are junk. See: RAND Corporation 2016. Also their citing of the USC/LA Times tracker from 2016 is hysterical since it was probably the worst poll of them all... Trump winning by 3 (he lost by 2) for a very unimpressive 5 point error.

I remember after the election folks were like "USC/LA Times was right." So bad...

[BudgieForce]

Every CBS battle tracker poll is labeled as YouGov. Why doesnt the NY post mention this?

Edit: On twitter, Anthony Salvanto has posted CBS battleground tracker polls with the YouGov label in the upper right corner.

So yeah, the 20 seat estimate Arkansas Yankee just posted about is from a YouGov tracker.

Edit 2: Yougov and the rest of the online trackers have been the most pro-Trump polls while the live caller polls have been worse for Trump. And while I know I'm biased, Live caller >>>>>> Online anyday of the week in terms of quality.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL we're seeing all the signs of a massive wave that also manifested in 2006 and 2010 (Special election swings, resignations, fundraising numbers, candidate quality, approval ratings), but a crappy internet pollster says no. Ok.

[Zaybay]

Instead of taking CBS and declaring it the king of polling, perhaps we should look at, you know, other factors such as the GCB, polling, and other indicators instead of listening to YouGov.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My dad keeps calling me ignorant for thinking that MJ Hegar is going to lose by mid single digits. He thinks she wins and even thinks she has better chances than Beto (who he think wins too) and cannot be convinced otherwise. Oh well, reality will wake him up soon.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not gonna dismiss the survey just because they're from YouGov, but NY post really hyped up the narrative that A- rated CBS was doing the polls themselves and showing democrats under performing. Failing to mention that they're being done by YouGov seems like a large over site to try and create a narrative. The NYPost is a right leaning publication so its not surprising.

[CookieDamage]

Instead of taking CBS and declaring it the king of polling, perhaps we should look at, you know, other factors such as the GCB, polling, and other indicators instead of listening to YouGov.

I do not think anyone called CBS the king of polling.

I threw it out to see the reaction. Got to give you something to rage at.

I know that when I was looking forward to the results in 2010 and 2014, I was hopeful but cautious.  I did not berate those who had a different view.  After 2016 I would think some of you would not be more cautious and a little humble.

Sounds like an admission to intentional trolling.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Missed this Zogby poll from 8/13/18

D 40
R 37

Maybe Zogby can return to it ranking in the 90s when they were the first to spot the surge of of the GOP.    Well for it is worth here it is.

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/864-the-zogby-poll-republicans-are-gaining-ground-on-democrats-in-the-congressional-generic-voters-trust-president-trump-with-the-economy-and-keeping-america-safe-much-more-than-democratic-leaders-republicans-and-trump-are-winning-back-independents

[Politician]

Is Roy Moore's biggest fan now trying to use a garbage pollster to "prove" a red wave?