2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

[kph14]

That Quinnipac poll has the Dems winning women by only 4 points but Reps winning men by 12...

Those numbers are white women and white men. Among all women Dems are +17 and among all men Dems are +1

[wesmoorenerd]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

N U T

[Zaybay]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

really glad that that stereotype is dying

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Aug. 12-14, 1250 registered voters

D: 44 (nc)
R: 40 (-1)

[KingSweden]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

really glad that that stereotype is dying

Dems ahead with Silents by 14 points seems wrong though

[Zaybay]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

really glad that that stereotype is dying

Dems ahead with Silents by 14 points seems wrong though

Silents are rather evenly split, and used to be a Dem generation. It really is the Baby Boomers who support the Rs.

[Brittain33]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

really glad that that stereotype is dying

Dems ahead with Silents by 14 points seems wrong though

Silents are rather evenly split, and used to be a Dem generation. It really is the Baby Boomers who support the Rs.

The Silents (like my parents) always were Rs... they came of age under late Truman and Eisenhower. It’s the Greatest Generation which is almost entirely gone which leaned D for Roosevelt.

[Zaybay]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

really glad that that stereotype is dying

Dems ahead with Silents by 14 points seems wrong though

Silents are rather evenly split, and used to be a Dem generation. It really is the Baby Boomers who support the Rs.

The Silents (like my parents) always were Rs... they came of age under late Truman and Eisenhower. It’s the Greatest Generation which is almost entirely gone which leaned D for Roosevelt.

Depends on which half of the silent. The early silent, like my grandparents, came around during the Great Depression and practically worship FDR, the late end has more to do with the baby boomers, being too young to remember FDR, and being the perfect age to embrace all the anti-communist and anti-socialist propaganda.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1029806564268498944

[mencken]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

Hilarious that this gets buried. I guess any poll that contradicts the idea of Democrats gaining every marginally competitive seat gets glossed over.

[Horus]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

Hilarious that this gets buried. I guess any poll that contradicts the idea of Democrats gaining every marginally competitive seat gets glossed over.

That looks about right actually. Curbelo is a strong incumbent and Powell very unremarkable. The 27th will be the only Florida district to flip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

Hilarious that this gets buried. I guess any poll that contradicts the idea of Democrats gaining every marginally competitive seat gets glossed over.

He posted the poll in one of the most widely read threads on this board.  How is that "buried"?

[Devils30]

The reason I still would keep this as tossup is because districts like this may break very late. Dems like Ike Skelton in 2010 learned this the hard way.

[junior chįmp]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

Yet again...George Carlin was right about the Baby Boomers

[Badger]

CA-22: Nunes: 48, Janz: 43 http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/docs/ca22-tulchin.pdf

As much as I'd love to see Nunes given the boot, reading the poll's report it sounds like an internal push poll (though the 48-43 numbers were supposedly given before the "push").

[Badger]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

This is what I've been saying for weeks now. Pelosi isn't electoral magic like Republicans think, yet they keep dragging her through the mud thinking it is. They seem to think that just because they wouldn't shut up about her for years during Obama-era midterm blowouts, that somehow it was an effective attack, because surely THAT was the reason they won, and not a recession recovery + unpopular-ish Democrat in the White House!

I don't think Pelosi deserves this kind of hate, but at the same time, since Republican politicians/strategists are too stupid and narrow minded to let go of an ineffective attack, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be a little happy when Pelosi retires, because it means Rs will finally start moving on to some other attack line that isn't incredibly stale.

muh Pelosi just needs to end but it is true that a lot of people who are warming up to the Democrats are in fact not fans of her.

This. No matter how undeserved or not, do not underestimate how toxic Pelosi is to many, many swing voters. There's a reason Democratic candidates in swing districts are running from her.

Now, the bigger question isn't her unpopularity in and of itself, but the depth--or lack thereof--to which people care. In other words, there are a lot of Pelosi disliking swing voters who aren't going to base their vote off whether the Democrat supports her or not.

[IceSpear]

This could be nothing and could potentially change wildly as these types of polls often do, but...it seems like Trump's approval, the generic ballot, and the right track/wrong direction numbers are more or less converging. Which would make sense logically. If you approve of Trump and think the country is on the right track, it only makes sense that you would vote Republican, and vice versa.

It certainly makes more sense than the hot takes of "Trump at -20 approval but Dems only up 3 in generic ballot! So many voters holding their nose against Pelosi!" or "Trump at -5 approval but Dems up 15 on the generic ballot! Trump Democrats are coming home!"

[American2020]

[Landslide Lyndon]

But I thought that running against Trump was a mistake.
Chris Cillizzza and Chuck Todd said so.

[Zaybay]

This could be nothing and could potentially change wildly as these types of polls often do, but...it seems like Trump's approval, the generic ballot, and the right track/wrong direction numbers are more or less converging. Which would make sense logically. If you approve of Trump and think the country is on the right track, it only makes sense that you would vote Republican, and vice versa.

It certainly makes more sense than the hot takes of "Trump at -20 approval but Dems only up 3 in generic ballot! So many voters holding their nose against Pelosi!" or "Trump at -5 approval but Dems up 15 on the generic ballot! Trump Democrats are coming home!"

This would make sense. The undecided vote probably constitutes that portion that isnt decided on a party/candidate, but doesnt like the president. While I do not think D+20 is believable, a double digit victory is.

[Virginiá]

What's the link to that poll^?

[BudgieForce]

What's the link to that poll^?

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Navigator-August-Tracker-Topline-F8.14.18.pdf

I think its this one.

[Frodo]

CNN Poll: Democrats advantage grows in race for Congress

You must be logged in to read this quote.