The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Politician]

Socaldem makes a great point despite Clinton carrying Orange County albeit earning just over 50% of the vote, every county level position is held by a Republican and all five members of the board of supervisors are Republicans. Also at the same time Clinton was winning the county Republicans won the congressional popular vote 53.4%-46.89% and they won the state assembly popular vote by even more at 56.54%-43.46%. So it seems like the further down you go the more Republican gets.

If you actually go and look at the individual city data for the presidential election you'll see that multiple cities with a double-digit or high single-digit R voter registration advantage voted for Clinton, which shows that there was a lot of crossover votes.

You can say what you want about the early vote, but those numbers don't look good for Dems and you can't exactly ignore that. It looks like Republicans are more motivated to vote now then they were in the primary. Remember CA-49 was the only district in the primary where the Dems got more votes than the Reps.

[Lord Admirale]

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[Politician]

In the context of which counties Charlie Baker would carry:

I'm thinking he'll only win Plymouth and Essex,  maybe Worcester.

[Doimper]

Donna Shalala should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

How did he manage to simultaneously overrate and underrate Democratic chances in Wisconsin? Amazing.

[Politician]

In the context of UT-4:

Safe R, this is fools gold for Democrats.

[DINGO Joe]

Cox handily wins Orange County
« on: November 08, 2018, 12:21:03 am »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306222.0


Still pipin' hot fresh

[Atlas Force]

Can't be bothered to find the original post, gonna have to make do with a screenshot:

[IceSpear]

Rossi likely benefits from a 'Karen Handel effect' in November, so a strong D candidate was key to checking that.

Strong Lean R, Rossi wins 53-47.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

2018 is obviously not going to be a "Democratic wave year". The issue in 2010 or 2014 was not that people massively turned out against an unpopular Democratic administration, the issue was that Democrats simply didn't turn out at all and Republicans did. That's not likely to change in 2018. McCaskill is still in deep trouble, and so are Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly, etc...

Wow, nice job seeing the trend for those Senate races 2 yrs ahead David B!

Yes, a truly humiliating failure to foresee wave victories in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

David called two those three races more accurately than Atlas did on the eve of the election. How could anyone be dumb enough to stumble across them and think that it's appropriate to re-post them here?

Note that WV Hick quoted David in October, before either of them knew the election results (which is almost as humiliating for WVH as posting them at all).

[IceSpear]

All on WI-01, which the Republican just won by 13 points (doing worse than Hillary did!) in a D+9 environment:

Lean D

Tilt R for now. LOL at the people who said Bryce's DUI would cause him to lose a landslide.

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

There is no way to tell who is gonna win this race.

Screnock won WI-01, Walker will certainly win it, and even Vukmir might win it. Give that, it seems very unlikely that a deeply flawed Democrat like Bryce could carry it against a Paul Ryan clone. Especially since Ryan is somehow not unpopular in Wisconsin as a whole (last poll I saw had him with an evenly split approval rating), which I'd assume means he's on fairly solid ground in his home district.

Vukmir will definitely lose it. Randy Bryce is not a flawed candidate. Democrats just outvoted Republicans in the primary.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

Gee, what does that remind me of?

[IceSpear]

Paging IceSpear

sup

Bredesen's downward trajectory has been much more gradual than I thought it would be so far, but there's plenty of time left to go.

And if he's really only up 2 points with a +39 favorable rating...it's probably lights out once Blackburn's attack ads start to bring that number back down to earth.

You’re utterly delusional. All she’s been doing is attacking Phil the entire campaign and it hasn’t worked, mainly because Bredesen keeps an optimistic message of bipartisanship.

[Politician]

Do people seriously believe that [Mike] Bishop is going to lose?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does anybody else remember the near ubiquitous belief that Hillary was despised in Colorado, and that 2016 would see a massive swing against Democrats in the state because of it?

[Politician]

Strong lean R.

Lmao

I am sorry that the fact that Knight easily cleared 50% is invisible to you.

[Atlas Force]

Yeah, this'll be a Wendy Davis-esque crushing.

[Politician]

A reminder how absurdly down this forum was on Democrats' chances after 2016:

Illinois predictions (assuming a neutral political environment):

1-9: incumbents reelected easily; 8 is Likely D while the others are safe for their respective parties
10: Schneider probably defeats Dold; Leans D
11: Leans D
12: Likely R at this point; Dems have had no luck in this district despite an even PVI, and I don't think they'll do it this time either
13: Safe R
14: Safe R
15: Safe R
16: Likely R
17: Toss-up; this is demographically similar to IA-2, but Bustos is basically Generic D (personally relatively unknown), this is a midterm, and Trump made huge strides above Romney's showing in this heavily working-class district
18: Safe R

Should democrats just give up on VA-10 for a little? Comstock won by 6 points, even as Clinton carried it by 10.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah Democrats aren't going to beat McSally - They probably weren't going to do it with Heinz, either.

[Politician]

D+3

Gains:
FL-27
VA-10
CA-49
CA-10
CA-25
AZ-2
NJ-2
FL-26


Losses:
MN-8
MN-1
MN-7
OH-13
IL-17
PA-17

[IceSpear]

Does anybody else remember the near ubiquitous belief that Hillary was despised in Colorado, and that 2016 would see a massive swing against Democrats in the state because of it?

[Continential]

Gonna go with the data we have available right now and say Raffensperger wins by 10 points. Unless Dems have been waiting to cast their votes on Election Day disproportionately, we're in that territory.


From Two days ago

[Adam Griffin]

Gonna go with the data we have available right now and say Raffensperger wins by 10 points. Unless Dems have been waiting to cast their votes on Election Day disproportionately, we're in that territory.


From Two days ago

I mean, you can ignore the entirety of that post and its context, but considering that I said...

• "the data we [had] available right [then]" was early vote and I calculated Raffensperger would win it by 8 (he ultimately won it by 9)
• the remaining projections were clearly stated as being based on if the ED/EV gap imitated the GE (they didn't)
• if Dems were holding their votes until Election Day, it'd be a lot different (they did; Raff only won ED by 2)

...I'm not ashamed of the call. Projecting with certainty what a runoff will look like in Georgia is damn near impossible and nobody can realistically claim to know how to project that without a ton of new voter file data and sophisticated campaign tools at their disposal. The only constant is that younger and browner voters show up in fewer numbers. I'm fine with being right about both the early vote margins and the total turnout, though!

Yeah, I'm hearing various reports from around the state that turnout is much lower than on 11/6, but much, much lower in Democratic precincts. We may be on track for a 1.5m vote election here.

[IceSpear]

Call me crazy, but this is a lean D race. While the 2016 results are a bit terrifying, it should be noted that this state loves to split tickets, and Trump's rhetoric was a perfect fit for the area. The same year they elected Trump, they also put in a D governor, which shows they are still receptive. And that was for the whole state, this race is only for the 3rd, the D base in the state.

Everything has already been said about Ojeda and Miller, one is stellar, the other is an empty shell.

Polling, which should favour Miller at this point in the cycle, so far, has actually favoured Ojeda. And not by some tiny margin, but by, like 6 points. And this was done by Monmouth, which is not known for terrible polling.

Miller really has nothing but the PVI going for her, and even then, its a false sense of security, since this is the most D downballot district.

Ojeda definitely has the advantage.

Guys, leave SN2903 alone. He just wants to cheerlead and be a hack for his favorite candidate. It's not like we don't have plenty of Democrats who do the same cheerleading for candidates who are in just as dire if not worse shape than John James is (COUGH Heitkamp.)

And leave it to you to think that James actually has as good a chance as [Heitkamp] of winning at this point

[OneJ]

Just to restate it, final prediction is 61-39 CHS wins.

[Zaybay]

I will own up to it, that one is pretty bad, haha.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just to restate it, final prediction is 61-39 CHS wins.