The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes way.

[Politician]

Democratic House candidate Mikie Sherill is favored to win the New Jersey's 11th congressional district, a district currently held by retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, a wealthy WASP blue-blood New Jersey Republican in the mold of Tom Kean and Christie Whitman in affluent Morris, Essex and Passaic suburbs, the wealthiest district in NJ.

Republican House candidate Jay Webber is young, conservative and has a middle-class conservative crusade. However, he is struggling to raise money in a Trump anti-GOP midterm where upper middle class white suburban women are probably motivated to vote for Sherill.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2018/07/16/mikie-sherrill-shatters-record-1-9-million-n-j-house-race/788177002/

Who wins?

My prediction: Jay Webber 53%, Mikie Sherill 46%
Webber motivates suburban Morris Republicans, his base, and affluent and middle-class voters to turn out for him. Watch for Sherill to run for a state Senate, state Assembly seat in the future or to run for this seat in 2020 or mount a statewide race in the future. Webber will become a rising star in the Republican Party and will be likely seen as someone who can run statewide.

[ON Progressive]

I'm not even going to check if this has been posted here, but this is too good for me to even care:

This CNN article is reason for optimism...

The basic premise is that with Costello's retirement, there are now eight GOP-Clinton seats that are open. The Democrats are very likely to win all of them meaning they are probably already 35% of the way towards retaking the house.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/27/politics/enten-costello-open-seats/index.html

And then there’s Comstock-style seats that I would feel very bullish about

Comstock style maybe but comstock herself is tough as nails and used to lead opposition research for the RNC. She will be brutal to a serious challenger.

[IceSpear]

I think this could be the big anomaly of the race, even though I think Kaine wins Virginia around 56-41 in the end, I could see him winning Prince William by only 3-5 points, or even losing it in a theoretical underwhelming dem performance. Stewart is from there, and has just done remarkably well there in primaries and GE's. Regardless of whether or not you like Stewart, you have to give him credit for doing so well in Prince William so many times. Especially since he is not even the type of Republican that is generally thought of as a good fit for the county. He is quite alt right and crazy and it is impressive how well he keeps doing there. Right now, I think Kaine wins Prince William 51-46. This is not to say that the statewide race will be close, because there is little chance of that happening, rather Prince William has a good chance of being an outlier, fluke, or an anomaly due to individual candidate strength in this one location from the otherwise Stewart shellacking state margins in which he easily loses by double digits to Kaine. What do yall think?

[AudmanOut]

I think this could be the big anomaly of the race, even though I think Kaine wins Virginia around 56-41 in the end, I could see him winning Prince William by only 3-5 points, or even losing it in a theoretical underwhelming dem performance. Stewart is from there, and has just done remarkably well there in primaries and GE's. Regardless of whether or not you like Stewart, you have to give him credit for doing so well in Prince William so many times. Especially since he is not even the type of Republican that is generally thought of as a good fit for the county. He is quite alt right and crazy and it is impressive how well he keeps doing there. Right now, I think Kaine wins Prince William 51-46. This is not to say that the statewide race will be close, because there is little chance of that happening, rather Prince William has a good chance of being an outlier, fluke, or an anomaly due to individual candidate strength in this one location from the otherwise Stewart shellacking state margins in which he easily loses by double digits to Kaine. What do yall think?

Bagel really underestimated dems in the suburbs.

[Zaybay]

I think this could be the big anomaly of the race, even though I think Kaine wins Virginia around 56-41 in the end, I could see him winning Prince William by only 3-5 points, or even losing it in a theoretical underwhelming dem performance. Stewart is from there, and has just done remarkably well there in primaries and GE's. Regardless of whether or not you like Stewart, you have to give him credit for doing so well in Prince William so many times. Especially since he is not even the type of Republican that is generally thought of as a good fit for the county. He is quite alt right and crazy and it is impressive how well he keeps doing there. Right now, I think Kaine wins Prince William 51-46. This is not to say that the statewide race will be close, because there is little chance of that happening, rather Prince William has a good chance of being an outlier, fluke, or an anomaly due to individual candidate strength in this one location from the otherwise Stewart shellacking state margins in which he easily loses by double digits to Kaine. What do yall think?

Gotta give him credit where credit is due, he did actually almost nail the result.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think this could be the big anomaly of the race, even though I think Kaine wins Virginia around 56-41 in the end, I could see him winning Prince William by only 3-5 points, or even losing it in a theoretical underwhelming dem performance. Stewart is from there, and has just done remarkably well there in primaries and GE's. Regardless of whether or not you like Stewart, you have to give him credit for doing so well in Prince William so many times. Especially since he is not even the type of Republican that is generally thought of as a good fit for the county. He is quite alt right and crazy and it is impressive how well he keeps doing there. Right now, I think Kaine wins Prince William 51-46. This is not to say that the statewide race will be close, because there is little chance of that happening, rather Prince William has a good chance of being an outlier, fluke, or an anomaly due to individual candidate strength in this one location from the otherwise Stewart shellacking state margins in which he easily loses by double digits to Kaine. What do yall think?

Gotta give him credit where credit is due, he did actually almost nail the result.

And if my PWC guess was not so sh!tty, I would have gotten 57-41.

[Politician]

Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions

Peterson will lose

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions

Peterson will lose

Quoting those guys in this thread is like shooting fish in a barrel.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I’m really perplexed why these Republicans are all retiring, considering that this is probably going to be a neutral cycle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not from one of our posters, but still worth noting:

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1059961858860421120

[lfromnj]

Not from one of our posters, but still worth noting:

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1059961858860421120

what is he supposed to say?
We are all doomed?

[DINGO Joe]

Not from one of our posters, but still worth noting:

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1059961858860421120

what is he supposed to say?
We are all doomed?

WWBS--What Would Bagel Say

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not from one of our posters, but still worth noting:

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1059961858860421120

what is he supposed to say?
We are all doomed?

I know, but it's still amusing now.

[Politician]

A district the Dem won by 13 points...

CA-49: Lean D

That's because it is. Democrats won the district in the jungle primary and like 80% of the time Democrats improve in the general vis-a-vie the primary.

We have two recent polls. Both internals. One from the democrat, showing him up 3 points. One from the republican, showing her leading 3 points. A reasonable inference would be a tied race based on those two partisan polls. Tossup, not Lean D.

[Politician]

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.

The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Democrats took the legislature solely with Twin Cities-based seats.

[lfromnj]

Good for Walz. Minnesota is not turning red like people think it is.

The legislature will be brutal, though. DFL strength is increasingly a Twin Cities Metro-only thing and that will bite them in the butt to only focus there.

Democrats took the legislature solely with Twin Cities-based seats.

A majority of seats are trump seats . There was no gerrymandering either

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lewis. He has a lot of strong potential opponents, including Pam Myrha, Elizabeth Kautz, Joe Atkins, Laurie Halverson, and Lori Swanson. Of these, I think Myrha, Kautz, or Swanson could beat Lewis.

On Paulsen's possible opponents: Ron Latz or Melissa Hortman would not be too strong. Jacob Frey, Lisa Bender, Paul Thissen, and Mike Freeman all live in Hennepin County, and one of them might "carpetbag" over to the district.

[IceSpear]

^That entire thread fits pretty well actually.

[Politician]

Going to be laughing at a lot of people when this turns out to be a VA-SEN 2006 redux.

I'm going to be laughing when Cruz wins by 10.

[AudmanOut]

Lean D, and certainly more likely to go Democrat than Indiana or Florida.

[Politician]

In the context of Hillary losing being good for Democrats:

Yeah, losing the Supreme Court for a generation in exchange for fleeting electoral victories where they won't be able to accomplish a damn thing due to divided government sure was worth it.

But we get to see more blue on the map or something, so I guess that's enough for Atlas.

[IceSpear]

In the context of Hillary losing being good for Democrats:

Yeah, losing the Supreme Court for a generation in exchange for fleeting electoral victories where they won't be able to accomplish a damn thing due to divided government sure was worth it.

But we get to see more blue on the map or something, so I guess that's enough for Atlas.

Uh, literally everything about that post is still accurate. Unless you're seriously suggesting that both parties should continually try to throw presidential elections in order to get Congressional majorities that they're unable to accomplish anything with due to the president's veto, as well as getting continually screwed over by the hostile SCOTUS.

[Politician]

Walker won't lose in 2018. He'll win by 3 points. He just knows how to win statewide.

[Technocracy Timmy]

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders