The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[AudmanOut]

This entire thread I found is pretty bad- https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=10568.0.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If this seat flips I will change my sig to Ocasio for a week. You people are too overconfident and hopefully our party leadership is not like that too (thank gravy I don't think they are) otherwise we would be screwed. This seat is not flipping with a decent incumbent who has done very well in the district, against a meh candidate. Not even Northam won it in an open race where he destroyed Gillespie statewide.

Brat is not a decent incumbent nor is Abigail “meh”.  Also Kaine is going to beat Corey by way more than Northam beated Ed

Well duh, everyone knows that, Kaine will win by something like 56-41.

Have you seen how well Brat has done in VA 7th?

So if Kaine is going to outperform Northam by a lot and Ralph lost this district by 4 then logically.......

Yes, Kaine will win the district.

An that doesn’t help Abigail at all?

43 year old white Chesterfield County businessmen will vote for both Kaine and Brat because they are both good government moderates.

[they don't love you like i love you]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

As I've said several times, the "almost exclusively" was hyperbole. Anyway, as for whites in general, Wolverine22 said something similar yesterday:

No and this is why I say that Trumpism will continue long after Trump. As whites lose the numerical majority, even Bernie supporters will become increasingly reactionary conservative/racist and embrace cynical, white nationalist politics when that brand of Trumpism fits their fears. This is why unless we see a California-like surge in non-white voters over a decade, I don’t see demographic change turning America into California. Whites will just vote more and more Republican and the GOP will be able to win elections by winning 97% of the white vote while tanking even further with minorities.

[they don't love you like i love you]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

As I've said several times, the "almost exclusively" was hyperbole. Anyway, as for whites in general, Wolverine22 said something similar yesterday:

No and this is why I say that Trumpism will continue long after Trump. As whites lose the numerical majority, even Bernie supporters will become increasingly reactionary conservative/racist and embrace cynical, white nationalist politics when that brand of Trumpism fits their fears. This is why unless we see a California-like surge in non-white voters over a decade, I don’t see demographic change turning America into California. Whites will just vote more and more Republican and the GOP will be able to win elections by winning 97% of the white vote while tanking even further with minorities.

I just quoted that in the appropriate thread.

[ON Progressive]

At this point, UncleSam should delete his account. How can you be so consistently wrong every time you make a prediction?

I’m surprised by Calley’s performance here, stronger than I expected. It’s gettin very close to the primary to be down 15 though.

I’m doubly surprised at how terrible a campaign Whitmer has run. She’s a totally uninspiring figure and public speaker from what I hear (this is completely anecdotal and may or may not reflect reality though - I’ve never personally heard her speak or campaign). I honestly am starting to doubt that she would even be the strongest candidate - idk if having two white liberal women who appeal to exactly the same constituencies in Ann Arvor and Oakland is a great idea. With Schuette likely to do well out state and John James proving surprisingly enigmatic, there has to be concerns about turning out Detroit in both the Governor and even the Senate race at this point.

It would be better if Dems had a strong minority candidate for governor to balance Stabenaw’s suburban Detroit appeal. Idk if Thanedar is really the best candidate to do that though - why do people here not like him? Is he too far left, or does he have serious controversies I’m not aware of?

Honestly think Michigan Governor is tilt R right now, with this uncertainty in the Dem primary. Could easily end up strong the other way of course, but the lack of enthusiasm for any of the candidates is pretty startling (and that even includes Stabenaw in the senate race tbh, though I expect her to outperform the gubernatorial candidate by at least 5 due to a stronger performance in the UP and Grand Rapids - I just don’t think she’s in a position to drag a weak governor candidate across the finish line).

[wesmoorenerd]

Kansas Democrats may be making a comeback in 2018....James Thompson for KS-4, Paul Davis for KS-2, Carl Brewer for KS Governor....the Post-Sebelius/Parkinson era for the Democrats is going well.

In bronz's defense, KS Democrats did make a comeback, just not due to any of the people he mentioned

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’ll present some bold predictions:
1) The Mueller probe will conclude with no more indictments and no evidence of collusion before the Midterm elections.
2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 30,000 by the Midterm elections.
3) Trumps approval rating will reach 50% by the Midterm elections.
4) The Republicans will hold the house and gain several senate seats in the Midterm elections.

[Mr. Morden]

Now that Warren has started an exploratory committee, I'd like to point out that 82% of people voting in this poll were wrong:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=286402.0

Also:

What probability would you assign to each of these 4 scenarios?

1) Sanders runs for the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination, while Warren doesn’t

2) Warren runs, while Sanders doesn’t

3) Both Sanders and Warren run

4) Neither Sanders nor Warren run

1) 85%
2) 0%
3) 0%
4) 15% (if Sanders is either dead or too frail)

[they don't love you like i love you]

Not every woman is going to end up like Clinton. Whitmer will probably win.

Every woman is potentially subject to misogyny - which some folks here will never accept, but I was proven right about Hillary when very few people agreed with me, and it looks like I'll be proven right about Whitmer.

[Badger]

Ouch! lmao.

Ben Kenobi is literally one of the worst predictors of Elections on this forum, and that's saying a ton.

[alancia]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_gubernatorial_election,_1978

Jerry Brown carried Orange County. Democrats never win Orange County; even LBJ lost to Goldwater there.

Sad!

[wesmoorenerd]

Sinema would get smacked. At this time, Arizona won't elect a LGBT person on a state level. If you come back to me in ten years, I might say meh, just because of the rising hispanic population that will eventually swing the state blue. The best chance we got to actually give Jeff Flake a run for his money is Gabby Gifford's husband.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sinema would get smacked. At this time, Arizona won't elect a LGBT person on a state level. If you come back to me in ten years, I might say meh, just because of the rising hispanic population that will eventually swing the state blue. The best chance we got to actually give Jeff Flake a run for his money is Gabby Gifford's husband.

Sad! But I stand by that Gifford's husband is the strongest candidate for 2020 now.

[Politician]

These are my Midterm predictions.
2018 House Results: R+2
2018 Senate Results: R+7
In the house, I’m predicting the Republicans to have a net gain of 2, due to Republicans flipping 10 Democratic districts (MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NV-03, PA-17, AZ-01, WI-03, IA-02, and IL-17), and Democrats flipping 8 Republican districts (CA-49, CA-25, CA-10, CO-06, TX-23, VA-10, FL-26, and FL-27). Meanwhile, in the senate, I’m predicting the Republicans to have a net gain of 7, due to flipping 7 Democratic Senate seats (WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, OH, and FL).

Maximum of 15, maybe 27ish on a spectacular night

[wesmoorenerd]

This is a question for the whole of Atlas.

Who do you think is going to win the race?

We have spent a lot of time talking about how bad the candidates are, but no time figuring out which one is more likely to win. It is a heavily split race.

Mercado Kim will win, probably by a large margin, Chin will finish second, and Fukumoto will finish third. Ing is a corrupt joke candidate supported primarily by edgy teens on the internet, although I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say he might beat out Ed Case for the coveted fourth place.

[Vespucci]

These are my Midterm predictions.
2018 House Results: R+2
2018 Senate Results: R+7
In the house, I’m predicting the Republicans to have a net gain of 2, due to Republicans flipping 10 Democratic districts (MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NH-01, NV-03, PA-17, AZ-01, WI-03, IA-02, and IL-17), and Democrats flipping 8 Republican districts (CA-49, CA-25, CA-10, CO-06, TX-23, VA-10, FL-26, and FL-27). Meanwhile, in the senate, I’m predicting the Republicans to have a net gain of 7, due to flipping 7 Democratic Senate seats (WV, IN, MO, ND, MT, OH, and FL).

Ironically, TX-23 didn't even flip.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

No, I agree that ancestral democratic districts with high white populations are the most likely to flip.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rohrbacher and Erik Paulsen

Context: Strongest GOP incumbents.

[Thunder98]

Re: What states will be won by a margin of less than 10%?

nobody guessing texas?

No because most people are sane.

This thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240576.msg5154202#msg5154202

[lfromnj]

Am I the only one who actually agrees with Blum being over Comstock?

No, I agree that ancestral democratic districts with high white populations are the most likely to flip.

>calling iowa 1st ancestrally D.

Its been D since dukkakis but it only had a D rep for like 8 years since 88 to 2018.

[Politician]

No. Not in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island or Delaware either.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=90632.msg2045987#msg2045987

In 2009.

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[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Congratulations Governor of Virginia Justin Fairfax.

[Badger]

Congratulations Governor of Virginia Justin Fairfax.

In fairness, that would have been a near Universal belief in that period between the Northram blackface scandal hitting the news and Fairfax's sexual assault history becoming public.