The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Congratulations Governor of Virginia Justin Fairfax.

In fairness, that would have been a near Universal belief in that period between the Northram blackface scandal hitting the news and Fairfax's sexual assault history becoming public.

Yeah, I believed that too, but that's not what this thread is for.

[Politician]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287012.0

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Dunno how to post maps so i will put it in this form:

Dems - MO

Reps - tbd

preface - i will never again definitively state anything in regards to gaming so to speak after i predicted that the 2008 Indians would be in the WS and that the 2009 cavs would be in the finals.  Both teams were the best i had ever seen in my life but there are many things that can derail a supposed sure thing.

California -  pipe dream Safe DEM hold no explanation needed

Colorado - this is the hardest race to predict.  Bennett seems to be a fundraising machine and the state is turning blue(red for this site.) If Ryan Frazier is the nominee and he is a capable campaigner this will be an interesting race.  Frazier = toss-up if not DEM hold

Connecticut - i think the best thing to happen to dodd reelection campaign was his diagnosis of prostate cancer.  In this country surviving cancer is like saving a baby from a fire. If yo do your golden.  Also, i think his numbers bottomed out and will only go up.  This along with the nature of CT will allow him to squeak by.  DEM Hold

Delware - this is a pipe dream now in my opinion.  Castle clearly the only rep who stands a chance has not raised any money what so ever.  With out a decent cash flow he would have a tough time to begin with.  Let alone this leads me to believe that he is not running.  If he is not running safe Dem.  DEM hold

Florida - Dem pipe dream unless Christ is found in bed with his a wife and a dude.  REP Hold

Illinois -  Kirk is a formidable challenger but this is the one race i seem to know about more than any other.  From what i have gather is that kirk is a great congressman for his constituent services and his family connection.  His family is very well respected in the area that encompasses the 10th district and his grandmother seems to have major political sway.  I don't know how this translates.  Also, i believe that obama will be the key factor here. If Alexi is down in the polls or close he will come in and save him.  Late ad cut for Alexi will put him over the top.  Plus kirk seems to be the kind of person who doesn't know how to avoid scandal. the lead story tonight on wgn was about kirks event tweets landing him in hot water.  Slight DEM hold

Kentucky-  With bunnings' retirement this is went from a pick up to a sure rep hold.  REP Hold

Louisiana - Vitter should be vulnerable but the diaper fetish man will be safe.  Reps would rather have a person like them than actually vote a scandalous figure out.  Its similar to dodd in CT.  Both should be gone but partisanship will allow them to survive.  REP hold

Missouri - This race seems to be a race between a popular member of a popular family verse the only likable member of an unlikable family.  The state may tilt rep but dynamics of the race lean Dem.  Most of my knowledge about this race comes from this site and other political sites but their is one consistant thing that any one with out bias has given Robin the edge.  So i defer to that.  DEM takeover

Nevada - Most powerful senator verse third tier oppt. equals no chance. Unless a candidate like las Vegas mayor switches parties to run against Reid there is no chance.  For those who use daschle as an example as why Reid could be taken down remember two things.  Daschle was in a must redder(bluer for this site) state and ran against a thune who had barely lost the previous cycle and had great name rec. and fundraising abilities. No one had presented these abilities thus far.  DEM hold.

New Hamp. - This is the truest of toss up right now.  Hodes has the advantage because of the trend of the state and the fact that he will be running with lynch who will give him coattails.  Also it seems lynch had a grudge against ayotte and will be campaign against her.  However we don't how well of campaigner she will be.  It seems to me hodes is a good campaigner so ayotte will have to be that much better.  But until the race shapes up its still a toss up.  TOSS-UP

North Carolina - this should have been Roy coopers to win.  When he declined it made me think that he know something we don't.  That lead me to believe that either he doesn't want run for federal office or he saw that this cycle would be anti-dem.  Either way unless cunningham gets into this race i don't see the Dem's winning.  REP hold

Pennsylvania - This race is the one were i have no idea about.  The Dem nature of the state and toomey radical conservatism leads me to believe that specter will survive.  However, a bloody primary and a backlash against obama could lead to unknown results.  Still specter is the favorite and toomey is still a out work congressman who is best known for his support of losing candidates.  DEM hold

Ohio -  I would like to believe that portman would be hung by his disastrous heading of the bush finicials.  However, Americans are now for two things short mememory and over reactions.  That being said in a neutral climate Ohio is lean rep so portman aided by a bloody primary(get out of the race brunner and save us the SOS seat) will win in a close race. REP hold.

Any race not listed here is a pipe dream for the opposition or would take a macca moment.  If one of these two things occur then these rating will change but until then.  D+1

Lets piece apart everything off with this post:
California: Republicans could have won if they picked correctly in the primary.
Colorado: Jane Norton, not Ryan Frazier, was in the race, and she would have won if she made it past the primary.
Delaware: Castles problems was the primary, not if he would run.
Illinois: Republicans won there, Obama campaigning was no use.
Missouri: Republicans held, not a Dem pickup.
Nevada: Republicans could have won if they picked correctly in the primary.
New Hampshire: Ayotte won in a landslide, not a close election.
Pennsylvania: Specter lost the primary, and then Republicans managed to pick the seat up.
"Pipe Dream/Macaca Moment needed": Apparently Massachusetts, North Dakota, Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Indiana belonged to this category, when the actual result was a flip.

[Politician]

Vote to certify it, Harris won fair and square.

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1068225397165314048

I don't believe that actually happened.

https://twitter.com/McCreadyForNC/status/1068318605278879744

And the people of the 9th chose Harris.

That has not yet been officially established, and your repeated assertions will not make it so.  If the BoE upholds Harris's election, then feel free to gloat at that point; but unless and until that happens, will you PLEASE knock it off?  You have enough of value to say on other topics that I would regret putting you on Ignore, but I'm about 1 millimeter from it at this point.

Fine, fine. I will be back here to remind you once Harris has a 100% chance of winning (it's like 99% if not more now).

[Atlas Force]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23172.msg499663#msg499663

From 2005:

On the GOP side, for 2016, look out for Gov. Phill Kline (KS), Gov. Ralph Reed (GA), Gov. JD Hayworth (AZ), Sen. David Vitter (LA), among others.

[Politician]

90% chance [Scott Walker] wins
50% chance he wins and he pulls whoever runs against Baldwin over the line with him.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1106643205309820930



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1106646562766086145

LMAO

everybody press f in the chat

[Politician]

It will be fun seeing all the hot takes on atlas when Mark Kelly loses the primary in a landslide while Ruben Gallego takes over 80% of the primary vote.

[Atlas Force]

If the left gets their way and knocks off Biden, you'll be adding 2020 President to this list.

[Coastal Elitist]

Another great prediction from brucejoel99, lol

Alright y'all, it's officially April 16th, Election Day, in Alberta so you know what that means: it's final prediction time! Please feel free to post your predictions of how you think the election will have played out by this time tomorrow.

As for me, I'm gonna say screw it, go w/ my heart (likely stupidly), & roll the dice to say:
NDP 43 (41.3%)
UCP 43 (39.4%)
AP 1 - Clark (12%)
LIB 0 (3.2%)
Freedom 0 (2.2%)

NDP minority government (possibly w/ Greg Clark providing confidence & supply), just b/c it'd be amazing to hopefully see the NDP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

[Sirius_]

Insert "Biden won't run" compilation here.

[Simfan34]

Who likes to talk about the POKEYMANS?

Donald Trump.

https://twitter.com/VicenteFoxQue/status/777493097387143168

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I generally approved ... 8/10.  It was a semi-rushed (by necessity) episode to set up the next two.  The moment with Sam was top notch and kind of stole the show.  Visually, it was flawless.

Pumped for next week, which interestingly looks like it will contain the start of a battle (from watching the preview).

P.S.  I LOVED the scene at the Last Hearth.  I was worried they would dumb down the White Walkers a bit too much in this rushed final season, and - while I guess they still could - it was refreshing to see them emphasize the spiral symbol right off the bat in the premiere ... it gives me some hope that they will still dive into the mythology of the White Walkers a bit more.  Also, for people who think that the living will win the Battle of Winterfell in Episode 3 and defeat the Night King and then turn their attention toward Cersei in Kings Landing (~50% of the fan base from what I have seen), you are now predicting that the Night King will literally be in TWO episodes and will only see battle action in one ... not buying it.  Our crew is definitely going to have to retreat south.

[Politician]

Took some good and some bad stances over the years. He deserves credit for the Obamacare vote and his rebuff of Trump's stupid "Obama judges" narrative. Overall, I think he is a decent guy. Freedom fighter.

The census case will make you rethink that.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hal Rogers is 73, so Republicans may not mind having the 5th made safer. The PVI for that area is very misleading, especially with the 2008 election. Granted it would probably require Obama out of office, but Republicans aren't going to assume that won't happen.

[Politician]

No need to even wait for this one.

Dominating.

[brucejoel99]

Another great prediction from brucejoel99, lol

Alright y'all, it's officially April 16th, Election Day, in Alberta so you know what that means: it's final prediction time! Please feel free to post your predictions of how you think the election will have played out by this time tomorrow.

As for me, I'm gonna say screw it, go w/ my heart (likely stupidly), & roll the dice to say:
NDP 43 (41.3%)
UCP 43 (39.4%)
AP 1 - Clark (12%)
LIB 0 (3.2%)
Freedom 0 (2.2%)

NDP minority government (possibly w/ Greg Clark providing confidence & supply), just b/c it'd be amazing to hopefully see the NDP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

I don't even recall why the qualifier of "Another" was apparently required for this post lol

[Politician]

Remember that this forum really underestimated Beto in 2018 and I wouldn’t be surprised if y’all’re doing it again this year.

[Atlas Force]

I remember this! (from my lurking days) Yeah, I didn't know who the fck this lady was either. Why does every Democrat now think she's our next President? If she plans on taking on Scott Brown, she can't be too good.

She's essentially what Democrats held Obama up as four years ago. This unapologetic liberal savior who was going to finally be the start of a left-wing revival.

Unlike Obama, she seems to be the genuine article as far as her politics. That also probably means she won't have a chance at being President, and may not even be Senator.

[Pericles]

You shouldn't be posting comments about the chances of 2020 candidates so early. For all we know Beto could make a comeback and Warren probably won't be President (no candidate has greater than 50% odds), posts about 2020 candidates in here should be made when the final outcome of their campaigns have occurred and are clear and not earlier.

[Politician]

Seriously, if the 270toWin Tossups are to be beloved, they need to run the table to narrowly take it back, and the generic ballot is tightening. Don’t be so cocky. But of course this is Atlas, the forum that swore up and down the Democrats would keep the Senate in 2014 and had a meltdown the day after.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I suspect Bernie and Warren won't run and the whole field will be corporate Democrats trying to out-SJW each other.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

No surprise here. Iowa will flip. Reynolds is finito

This whole thread belongs here.

[Politician]

No surprise here. Iowa will flip. Reynolds is finito

This whole thread belongs here.

TBF, almost every post by Mondale pre-midterms could go here.

[Roll Roons]

Save this topic. I know people have been fighting back against the slew of Gillibrand topics but bear with me and hear me out.

The Gillibrand hype we are experiencing here in Atlas is not like the hype we have seen with Kander, Bullock, Heitkamp, or Harris. Think about it: She's been building up her political stock for over a decade, she's a wildly successful politician, she's going to run for president in the time of #MeToo, something she has put at the forefront of her entire career, she has shown us that she can be attacked by Trump and to be able to turn the tables on him (something his GOP opponents and Hillary Clinton failed to do). Her being elected to succeed Trump makes the most sense and I am not saying this out of pure hype. I've been saying this on this forum for a while. I may be wrong, but I have a strong feeling that if Trump is going to lose reelection, it's going to be to Senator Gillibrand and MeToo will put her in the White House.

Thread title: Kirsten Gillibrand will be the 46th President of the United States