The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[John Dule]

Save this topic. I know people have been fighting back against the slew of Gillibrand topics but bear with me and hear me out.

The Gillibrand hype we are experiencing here in Atlas is not like the hype we have seen with Kander, Bullock, Heitkamp, or Harris. Think about it: She's been building up her political stock for over a decade, she's a wildly successful politician, she's going to run for president in the time of #MeToo, something she has put at the forefront of her entire career, she has shown us that she can be attacked by Trump and to be able to turn the tables on him (something his GOP opponents and Hillary Clinton failed to do). Her being elected to succeed Trump makes the most sense and I am not saying this out of pure hype. I've been saying this on this forum for a while. I may be wrong, but I have a strong feeling that if Trump is going to lose reelection, it's going to be to Senator Gillibrand and MeToo will put her in the White House.

Thread title: Kirsten Gillibrand will be the 46th President of the United States

His Kamala content will age just as poorly.

[Politician]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66629.msg1368187#msg1368187

[Politician]

Another Bagel masterpiece of wetting the bed

67-53 far right hold on Israel is my final guess. Horrific governance and policy will continue to come out of the top echelons of the federal government of Israel for decades to come.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Another Bagel masterpiece of wetting the bed

67-53 far right hold on Israel is my final guess. Horrific governance and policy will continue to come out of the top echelons of the federal government of Israel for decades to come.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Northam for President  

Northam 2020?

Warren has no chance of winning the Dem nomination and the Presidency

Warren ticks off too many people. Without the cult-like following that Bernie had, I don't think she has a real shot at the nomination.

I give her a 1/1024 chance of winning.

I guess this is way too early ... but whatever.

There's a big chance that she'll burn out over the next year and someone else will suck up her support.

[BlueSwan]

Northham for President 

Northam 2020?

Warren has no chance of winning the Dem nomination and the Presidency

Warren ticks off too many people. Without the cult-like following that Bernie had, I don't think she has a real shot at the nomination.

I give her a 1/1024 chance of winning.

I guess this is way too early ... but whatever.

There's a big chance that she'll burn out over the next year and someone else will suck up her support.

I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Warren's chances for the nomination. I was very sure that she would never take off in the polls and she has. I still consider her a poor fit for the general election, but her chances of winning the nomination are certainly far far greater than I thought back then. I really thought the combination of democrats wanting desperately to win in 2020, the Pocahontas debacle and her fairly poor handling of it, the fact that her appeal to the WWC is virtually non-existent and her teacher-like style would put the vast majority off her. Now she looks to be in a very good position for the nomination indeed. I also think she loves her position in the race right now, as I believe that she is certainly stronger than Sanders and much prefer to face Biden in an one-on-one rather than Harris/Buttigieg/Booker/O'Rourke.

[IceSpear]

She wasn't going to win Alaska before the email stuff, and she's certainly not winning it now. Same goes for Texas. Please stop this idiocy. Some of you guys are starting to sound as delusional as Dean Chambers and the Reddit Berniebros.

Do you honestly believe that Trump has a better shot in PA than Clinton does in Alaska?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=73173.0

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=73173.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=14845.0

Virginia is very slowly trending Democrat, but it won't be a swing state in 2008 without a good, moderate populist like Bayh, in which case we won't need it. Whether it keeps trending until it becomes a battleground is impossible to know, but it will take good time.

In 2096 when a Democrat finally wins VA, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!".

Virginia will not go for Bayh.

The State has become more Republican in every one of the last four elections.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Really no compelling reason to think Trump males a comeback. People have already started voting, the polls look terrible for him, and he's yet to figure out how to use a scandal to his advantage. (Evidently, the vast silent majority of Atlas agrees with me.)

Not too big, he may be able to break 200 EV now but who knows.

Once again we are speculating in advance of actual information, which is almost always a bad idea.  But what the heck, I'll play...

None. 

Unless the email contains direct evidence of actual criminal activity on Clinton's part, this isn't going to change much.  The increased negative coverage will probably have an effect, yes.  But consider what remains of the electorate:

Most people already in Clinton's camp won't be fazed by this.  This nets Trump few or no votes.

People already in Trump's camp will feel vindicated, but this also nets Trump no votes.

Undecideds may be swayed to some degree against Clinton (although there's also a possibility that the timing of this may create some degree of pro-Clinton backlash).  Net effect is probably to shift some portion of the undecided vote to Trump.  The problem?  There aren't that many undecideds left at this point.

If there's no major smoking gun, I'd expect that this may help Trump by 1%-2%.  Based on the current polls, I would have said he was behind by 6-7, so it may go down to 4-5.  This is still losing.  This is also not considering the Clinton ground game, which is probably worth a point or two for her.

Since he's a showman, hopefully he'll commit suicide on live television.  That would make great theater.

It would also be the appropriate ending: the way all demagogues should go out.

99.95% certain Clinton will win with an EV margin between '12 and '08.

[Politician]

Hillary Clinton 498 EV, 58%
Donald Trump 44 EV, 39%

Everyone hates Trump.

[Politician]

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%

I'm mostly sticking with this, but I'll modify the margin to Moore 52-44. Safe R. Pretty much nothing can trump partisan loyalty these days. Moore could probably do even more unspeakable things that I don't feel comfortable mentioning on this forum and still win.

Although the race is safe R, predicting the margin is tricky. I'll guess 53-45. Could be a bit more or a bit less, but I'd be very surprised if he doesn't do better than he did in 2012.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My plan is to be the last standing NJ user here

x Admiral President

[Xing]

At least I've admitted it when I'm wrong. Has everyone, though?

Nevada, and it isn't particularly close.

Tossup, 48-47 Heller.

MN-1: Feehan +3
MN-2: Craig +8
MN-3: Phillips +10
MN-7: Peterson +15 (LOL at this being "competitive")
MN-8: Radinovich +1 (I said it)

[Politician]

^Nice try, but those weren't my final predictions (unlike you with Moore). I thought Rosen would win comfortably, and flipped MN-8 R and cut down the margins in MN-2/MN-3 on Election Day.

[Continential]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=20746.0

Yeah, Lugar won't lose.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=20746.0

Yeah, Lugar won't lose.

Lugar won his race in 2006 , which is what that thread was referring to

[OSR stands with Israel]

Opinion Consultants?  Lol.  We all know DeWine is currently leading and will win.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Yeah, he totally won OC bigly in 2016.

Trump is running incredibly strong in Orange County.

[Politician]

I love reading the posts on here by right wing dopes about how Scott will win because of muh hurricanes

Elections are basically 95% national enviorments.... nobody cares about Scott's accomplishments as governor or whatever

Scott will get BTFO

Seems someone hasn't learned from their past predictions.

[Gracile]

I've heard that DeGette is likely an underdog against Duran. She's kind of an absentee congresswoman.

https://twitter.com/crisantaduran/status/1115287397153918976?s=20

Yeah, Crisanta Duran is probably going to beat DeGette. DeGette might just end up retiring too, who knows.

Context: Duran just ended her primary challenge.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yeah, he totally won OC bigly in 2016.

Trump is running incredibly strong in Orange County.

Despite losing it in the general election, Trump decisively won the primary there. So, it wasn't the most outrageous of predictions.

[Xing]

And Democrats can take this issue away, thus devastating the Republican Party, if they would stop supporting abortion.

Didn't take long to disprove this one, lol.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yeah, he totally won OC bigly in 2016.

Trump is running incredibly strong in Orange County.

Despite losing it in the general election, Trump decisively won the primary there. So, it wasn't the most outrageous of predictions.

Well he was already basically unopposed by the time California voted.

[Continential]

Cool. I put him in the D-list with Ojeda and Delaney. Castro is C-list bordering on D-list.