The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[OSR stands with Israel]

As for the midwest trending GOP and parts of the south trending Democratic, I think that makes sense because of changes in population distribution. If more people move to southern states, I think that will generally make them more Democratic

No, not at all. The results in Georgia over the past few years are the perfect example of why not, Georgia is trending HARD to the Republicans, and the gains are mostly in the fast growing areas. Take a look at the results in Forsyth County over time. That's actually why I found the map so amusing, Georgia is one of the fastest Republican trending states in the country and may soon be more Republican than Texas at this rate.

It's true in a few areas (like NOVA and parts of North Carolina), but hardly true at large.

And BRTD's posts in that thread in general lol

[Politician]

For reference, in the three polls we have with hypothetical runoff polling (in the last month) between JBE and Rispone, JBE gained 2%, 2%, and 7% without factoring in undecideds.

I can give you a clue how those undecideds will go

Actually, strike that. I’ll go bold and say likely R for me. I’ll look like the Seer when all is said and done

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/SangyeH/status/1201510817365217280?s=19

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The poll results: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=348223.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Democratic establishment has already crowned Kamala Harris as their chosen nominee, before a single vote has even been cast. To avoid another Bernie debacle, they've decided to nip this one in the bud through a highly coordinated smear campaign using leftist media outlets and morons on Twitter.

Simple enough.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sanders is not the rural candidate. Its Biden. Sanders is winning here because it's a caucus.

Never in a million years did I suspect MAYO PETE would win rural whites

[Gracile]

80% of the results will be released by 11:00 PM EST fyi.

[Intell]

Sanders is not the rural candidate. Its Biden. Sanders is winning here because it's a caucus.

Never in a million years did I suspect MAYO PETE would win rural whites

Neither did I, but the abysmal turnout in these rural areas either shows us that in 2020, the democrats are not going to do better amongst rural whites than Hillary Clinton.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

This display name.

[KaiserDave]

This display name.

This post could end up with the opposite of the desired effect

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

This display name.

This post could end up with the opposite of the desired effect

I suppose, but I'll give you the right to quote this post if Biden makes it anywhere past Milwaukee.

[PSOL]

It's a good tool regarding budgeting, and yes, taking care of that has often had a way of coming around to take care of you.

I call BS
The only way this argument works is if you assume the mormon church is true (hint: it’s not, it’s a cult and a predatory multinational corporation)

Look at the Religion Board.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why does this thread even exist? It's obvious Kamala Harris will be the nominee. Who you want as the nominee is irrelevant.

[DINGO Joe]

Why shouldn't Tulsi be in the debate?

She's on the ballot in the remaining states.  Why shouldn't the Democratic voters get to hear what she says?

Is that inconvenient for the Democratic Establishment?  Probably, but so what?  The Democratic Establishment's problems come from rigging the process and getting caught.  You'd think they'd avoid all appearances of this in 2020, but I guess not.

She's no longer viable. At this point in the cycle, being viable is a reasonable goalpost for a debate.

She could conceivably win enough delegates to force a brokered convention.  There are a significant number of Democrats who don't wish for either Biden or Sanders.  Why shouldn't they have another choice that's already on the ballot?  Perhaps a significant number of Democrats WANT a brokered convention which will produce a candidate other than someone who'll be eighty in their first term and who is either mildly senile or a blatant anti-capitalist.  Are they just out of luck?

[SevenEleven]

Using Fuzzy is cheating.

[KaiserDave]

This display name.

This post could end up with the opposite of the desired effect

I suppose, but I'll give you the right to quote this post if Biden makes it anywhere past Milwaukee.

[Lord Admirale]

My plan is to be the last standing NJ user here

x Admiral President

Rest in Peace New Jerseyan Admiral

1999-2019

[Bidenworth2020]

This display name.

Lol ok

[brucejoel99]

This display name.

Lol ok

Never count out the Comeback Kid.

[Politician]

Smith. Won't be close either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nobody knows, but if he really got 300,000 people to sign up for his Tulsa rally it's gargantuan. This weekend, thousands of people lined the piers of San Diego to celebrate his 74th birthday. The support out there for him is massive. But we've created so many echo chambers on the left that we don't understand why he is so popular.

Some liberals across the nation sign up for his rallies with no intention of going just to keep the seats empty.

And in any case rally size doesn't mean anything in terms of electoral results. Just ask Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders.

He has a cult base, sure, we know that. But there are no signs he's expanded it or that it will be enough for him.

Bernie's largest rally was around 25,000 IIRC. 300,000 is out of this world level.

There’s an enormous difference between entering your name on a website and actually attending a rally, Beet. I know at least some of those 300,000 are liberals screwing with the Trump campaign and many of the rest may have no intent of attending.

Good god it's a million now. Even if half a million liberals were just entering their names into his website to screw with him this is shaping up to be the biggest political rally in national history, if not world history. Trump's popularity is messianic. We need more Trump supporters here because most people here don't understand him or his people.

[brucejoel99]

This post

https://i.imgur.com/rGdxdXx.png

Even I have to concede that OP literally said "Barring some kind of miracle."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In light of the Trump Tulsa rally numbers fiasco...

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No doubt Cruz will win, and odds are by lower double digits. But, I would not be very surprised if this thing is mid to higher single digits. Because Cruz is well, Cruz, O'Rourke is a pretty good candidate, this will be a Trumpian midterm, and our demographics are rapidly changing. I would not rule out Cruz winning by 6-9 points, pretty unlikely, but not out of the picture.

Lol, exactly three years ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

haha